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Limiting global warming could avoid millions of cases of dengue



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Limiting global warming to 1.5 ° C could stem from around 3.3 million cases of dengue fever per year in Latin America and the Caribbean alone, according to a new study by the University of East Anglia (UEA).

A new report, published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ( PNAS ), shows that limiting warming to the goal of the UN Convention of Paris would also stop the spread of dengue areas where the incidence is currently low.

A global warming path of 3.7 ° C could lead to an increase of up to 7.5 million additional cases per year by the middle of this century.

Dengue fever is caused by a virus that is spread by mosquitoes, with symptoms such as fever, headache, muscle and joint pain. Endemic to more than 1

00 countries, it infects approximately 390 million people worldwide each year, with an estimated 54 million cases in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Because the mosquitoes that carry and transmit the virus thrive in warm and humid conditions, it is more commonly found in areas with these weather conditions. There is no specific treatment or vaccine against dengue and in rare cases it can be fatal.

The lead researcher Felipe Colón-González of the UEA's School of Environmental Sciences and the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research said: "There is growing concern about the potential impact of climate change on human health. While it is known that limiting warming to 1, 5 ° C benefits to human health, the magnitude of these benefits remains largely unquantified.

"This is the first study to show that reducing warming from 2 ° C to 1.5 ° C has important health benefits could. "

The Paris Climate Agreement aims to keep the global average temperature well below 2 ° C and make efforts to limit it to 1.5 ° C above pre-industrial levels.

The team studied clinical and laboratory-confirmed dengue Reports in Latin America and computer models used to predict the effects of warming under different climate scenarios.

They found that gl. Upper warming to 2 ° C could increase by the end of the century dengue cases by as many as 2.8 million cases reduce it by a year compared to a scenario in which the global temperature rises by 3.7 ° C.

Limiting the warming to another 1.5 ° C further decreases in cases of up to half a million per year.

Southern Mexico, the Caribbean, northern Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, and coastal Brazil will be hit hardest by increases in dengue cases. [19659005] Brazil would benefit most from limiting warming to 1.5 ° C with up to half a million avoided cases per year by 2050 and 1.4 million avoided cases per year by 2100.

The team also found out that the limitation of global warming would also prevent the spread of the disease areas in which the incidence is currently low, such as Paraguay and northern Argentina.

co-author dr. Iain Lake, also from the UEA, added: "Understanding and quantifying the effects of warming on human health is critical to population preparedness and response.

" Warming is already 1 ° C above pre-industrial levels Level is reached, and the current rate, when countries meet their international CO2 reduction commitments, is around 3 ° C. So much more needs to be done to reduce CO2 and fast if we want to avoid those impacts.

The research was conducted by the University of East Anglia, UK, in collaboration with colleagues from Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Brazil.

"Limiting the global average temperature increase to 1.5-2 ° C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America, "states the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ( PNAS ) on Monday, May 28, 2018.


Further information:
Limiting warming to 1.5 ° C would save the majority of global species from climate change

Further information:
Felipe J. Colón-González et al., "Limiting the global average temperature to 1.5-2 ° C could reduce the incidence and spatial extent of dengue fever in Latin America" ​​ PNAS (2018). www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1718945115

Sources in Journal:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Provided by:
University of East Anglia


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