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Meet the man who warned against global warming



James Hansen wishes he was wrong. He was not.

NASA's top climate scientist in 1988, Hansen warned the world on a record hot June day 30 years ago that global warming was here and worsened. In a study published a few months later, he even predicted how hot it would become, depending on the emissions of heat-capturing gases.

The hotter world that Hansen envisaged in 1988 has become more or less true. Three decades later, most of the polled climatologists rave about the accuracy of Hansen's predictions in the face of the technology of the time. Hansen will not say, "I told you."

"I do not want to be right in that sense," said Hansen. Being right means that the world is warming at an unprecedented rate and the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland are melting.

Hansen said that what he really wanted was "that the warning be respected and action taken."

They were not. Hansen, now 77, regrets that he "could not make this story clear enough for the public".

Global warming was not what Hansen studied in 1

972 when he studied NASA. The native Iowa studied Venus – a planet with a rapid greenhouse effect – when he was interested in the ozone hole of the earth. When he made computer simulations, he realized that "this planet was more interesting than Venus." And more importantly.

In his 1988 study, Hansen and colleagues used three different scenarios for exhaust emissions – high, low, and medium. Hansen and other scientists focused on the middle scenario.

Hansen predicted that the world's five-year average temperature will be 1.85 degrees (1.03 degrees Celsius) higher than the NASA's averaged 1950-80 average by 2017. NASA's global five-year temperature, the Ended 2017, was 1.48 degrees above the 30-year average. (He did not consider that the sun would cool down a bit, which would reduce the warming by nearly two tenths of a degree Celsius, said Jeff Severinghaus of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.)

Hansen also predicted a certain number of days of extreme Weather – temperatures over 95 degrees, free days and nights, when temperatures in the decade do not drop below 75 – per year for four US cities. His prediction underestimated the warming of the decade in Washington in general, overestimated it in Omaha, was about in New York and mingled with Memphis.

Clara Deser, climate analysis helper at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said Hansen's global temperature forecast: unbelievable "and its extremes for the cities were" amazing "in their accuracy.Berkeley Earth's Zeke Hausfather gives Hansen's predictions a 7 or 8 for accuracy, by 10, he said Hansen calculated that the climate would react a bit more to carbon dioxide than scientists now think.

John Christy of the University of Alabama Huntsville, a favorite of those who question climate change Using mathematical formulas to investigate Hansen's projections, he concluded, "Hansen's predictions were wrong, as evidenced by hypothesis testing."

Hansen testified at a 1987 hearing on climate change before Congress It was a cool day, he thought.

So the next listener was It was scheduled for next summer, and the weather added warmth to Hansen's words. At 14 o'clock, the temperature reached a record high of 98 degrees and felt like 102. It was then and there that Hansen went on the palm and announced that global warming was already there. Until then, most scientists merely warned of future warming.

He left NASA in 2013 and devoted himself more to what he calls his "anti-government work".

Hansen, still at Columbia University, was arrested five times for environmental protests. Each time, he hoped to go to court "to draw attention to the problems," but the cases were dropped. He writes about saving the planet for his grandchildren, including one who sued the federal government for inactivating global warming. His endorsement has been criticized by scientific colleagues, but he does not apologize.

"If scientists are not allowed to talk about the political implications of science, who will do that? People with financial interests?" Hansen asked.

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