Microsoft's mixer becomes relevant
On Thursday, Tyler "Ninja" Blevins, the Fortnite streamer and Twitch's most popular star, announced via Twitter (TWTR) that he released his live streams exclusively on Mixer surrounded]. Mixer is the direct competitor of Microsoft (MSFT) to Twitch, which belongs to Amazon (AMZN). Ninja had nearly 15 million followers on Twitch, more than twice as many as the nearest streamer. He had well over 100,000 paying subscribers at one time, earning millions and millions of dollars each year.
At the time of writing, ninja mixer and twitch statistics are not even close to each other. Ninja has nearly 15 million followers on Twitch and only 40,000 on blenders. When Ninja starts streaming to Mixer, his followers will grow there and bring the masses to the site. This, in turn, will cause other streamers to take advantage of the increased visibility on the site and switch as well. Microsoft does not currently announce how it agrees with Ninja, but I would expect Ninja to pay for this deal in 8 numbers a year. Pretty crazy for playing video games.
What this means for Amazon
Since Amazon acquired Twitch in 2014 for nearly $ 1 billion, the Platform gained popularity. When Twitch was acquired in August 2014, an average of nearly 400,000 visitors were seen on the site at the same time. In July 2019, Twitch averaged 1,232,000 simultaneous viewers. A trend that continues to increase.
Amazon is notorious for eliminating the competition. The company partially acquired Twitch because there were few competing services for live streaming. The only other platform that Twitch can even come close to is Alphabet (toget) (NASDAQ: togetL) YouTube, which focuses more on video content than live streaming. Twitch has been involved in this near-monopoly. So far no other website has succeeded in getting big streamer to permanently switch to their platform.
This step brings competition to the market for Twitch. We will now see how the website deals with top talent with a major competitor in the market. Will they try to persuade existing streamers to stay, or will they struggle to sustain growth when Mixer comes on stage? It's a fascinating hyper-growth space to keep an eye on.
I would associate Twitch with a current value in the $ 10-25 billion range. Although I've seen some reviews that put it at $ 100 billion, I do not think the platform is still there. Some interesting facts that underpin this review are over 140 million unique monthly viewers in 2018 and an average audience time of 95 minutes on the site, a tremendous opportunity for brands and advertisers. Similar Asian streaming companies HUYA (HUYA) and Douyu (DOYU) have market capitalisations of $ 5 billion at 120 MAUs and $ 3 billion at 154 MAUs, respectively. Twitch is ahead of these two companies and has a majority of users in North America and Europe who monetize much better.
In short, a streamer exit is immaterial to Twitch's rating, even if it's ninja. From now on, it's about whether it's a bigger step, where other streamer leave.
What this means for Microsoft
This step gives Mixer a chance to fight and proves that Microsoft is ready to invest everything it needs to make the platform successful. This is ultimately great news for streaming viewers, as Twitch now has some competition to watch out for. For the shareholders of Amazon, this is not so good news, but could turn out to be very profitable for Microsoft. This move forces both Twitch and Mixer to further innovate in space. If Microsoft is willing to spend a lot of money on taking over Ninja, the company will certainly try others too.
Given the size of the streaming, Mixer could have a significant impact on Microsoft shareholders. Although not yet available, both Twitch and Mixer have the potential to become $ 100 billion in the next decade. With $ 1 trillion in Microsoft and Amazon, these streaming platforms could someday make up a decent share of their market capitalization. This is when Mixer can achieve the same success as Twitch.
The Bottom Line
Ultimately, this move brings Microsoft right to the big streaming stage. Mixer was not in discussion yesterday, but today. With the largest gaming personality in the world, Microsoft has become a legitimate threat to Amazon and Twitch. The most frequently visited mixer user (as of August 1, 2019) has only 800,000 followers, while Ninja has just under 15,000,000 at Twitch. Something tells me within a few days that Mixer will have many more users. However, this does not guarantee success for Mixer and Microsoft. You have to convince more and more streamers to take the step, which could prove costly. Microsoft must continue to invest heavily in the development of technology and content to keep the platform alive in the long term. Microsoft has taken the right path here. I am curious to see if it can continue this development over the next 12 months. If so, it has a chance of fighting and a real gem in blender. If not, Amazon could very well return to a dominant position in gaming live streaming.
Disclosure: I / we have no positions in the above stocks, but may open up a long position in MSFT the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself and expressed my own opinion. I can not get any compensation for it (except from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with a company whose shares are mentioned in this article.