A major fall storm may form along the east coast by the end of the week as a cold front joins the remains of [Category:HurricaneWillawhich will hit the Mexican west coast on Tuesday. The storm can produce heavy rain, mountain snow and strong winds and high seas on the coast.
The biggest risk for annoying weather will be in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast weekends. It is too early to predict exactly how this storm will develop and where it will hit hardest. There is also the possibility that it will be more directed into the sea, minimizing the impact.
The storm threat is still five to six days away, but computer models have shown a favorable pattern for more than one pattern at the end of October
As with all storms on the East Coast, the exact lane will determine where the heaviest rainfall occurs and on which places, if any, lies snow. There are also uncertainties in the strength of the storm that will have a major impact on how much precipitation falls and what type and whether strong winds and floods along the coast pose a threat.
But models suggest that this storm could be huge. It will evolve as the remains of Willa, which is currently located in the eastern tropical Pacific on the west coast of Mexico, are being pulled into the Gulf of Mexico during the week northeast of Mexico. A new storm system will form on Thursday and Friday along an old, angled front and lane from the northern Gulf Coast through the southeast.
Willa's remains – when they enter the Gulf of Mexico – will have no resemblance to the monster storm in its current state and will be much weaker. The Gulf of Mexico does not rule out that the rest of the recirculation will be regenerated into a tropical unit, but models do not predict this at the moment.
Willa's remnants are expected to cause significant rains on Wednesday in Central Texas, which has recently suffered heavy flooding . The rain is likely to spread on Thursday and Friday over some of Hurricane Michael's hit areas, including the Florida Panhandle and Georgia.
As the storm system develops and travels along the northern Gulf Coast towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, models project rainfall of approximately one to four inches. This could be enough to cause flooding, especially in areas where heavy rainfall has taken place in recent weeks, but widespread problems are less likely. The storm system will move fast enough to prevent a more serious threat of flooding.
The storm system is unlikely to reach significant strength until it reaches the east coast on Friday or Friday night, when it begins to interact with a cold front.
The timing The location of this merger will have a significant impact on the storm section and how big this storm will be on the East Coast. If the merger takes place earlier and closer to the coast, it is more likely that the storm will reach the coast with heavy rain, snow and wind. But if it occurs later and further off the coast, it can be more of a blow.
Of the 51 simulations of the European model system (see below), about half hold the storm near the mid-Atlantic and north-eastern coasts, while half of them carry it out to sea.
The American modeling system, not shown, shows a similar range of possibilities as the European one, but tends more towards a solution from the outside to the sea.
When the storm embraces the coast and becomes a mighty powerhouse, large rainfall along the Interstate 95 corridor could reach one to three inches. And it would probably peel cold air.
The primary (operational) simulation of the European model foresees highs of only 40 to 45 degrees in Washington and Baltimore on Saturday, when heavy rains may occur. In this scenario, altitudes over 2,000 feet in the Appalachian Mountains could accumulate snow. Hurricane winds and strong surf are likely to tear the coast, causing erosion and flooding on the coast.
Further north, in New England, the effects of the storm would likely hit Sunday and the availability of colder air could even allow some snow
But again, there are a variety of ways that this storm ultimately develops and it is too early to capture details.
Regardless of just how this happens The storm is developing and remains at the beginning of the season, the cold air is likely to follow Sunday through early next week throughout the Central Atlantic and Northeast.