The era of Bryce Harper Phillies officially starts at 15:05. ET on Thursday with a kick-off day against the Atlanta Braves. Before Harper enters the field for the first time in his new uniform, we asked five of our experts to predict how the opening season of $ 330 million will develop in Philadelphia.
Over / Under:
Bryce Harper is a .279 career hit. Will you take this number for 2019?
Bradford Doolittle: Under. Placing his career in a Citizens Bank ballpark context only adds a few points to his average and I suspect he will focus more on the long ball in his first season in Philly.
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Sam Miller: Over. About my reasoning is nothing special: I just think that he is better than his caregivers. The bad years are easier to explain than the amazing ones.
Eddie Matz: With seven seasons of data on Harper, the 0.330 average from his MVP season looks more and more. In addition, the average in the MLB fell from .255 in 2017 to .248 last year. I have the underworld, please.
Jeff Passan: Give me the upper hand. The National League East is full of right-handers, and Harper is on average 30 points higher. And all year round, everything that Harper has obviously picked up after the Giants run.
David Schoenfield: I can not remember that a player with such extremes swayed on average of his strokes, but I take the underline, mainly because Harper's swing-and-miss and strike Out odds have risen in the last year and you will not score if you do not put the ball into play.
Harper hit 34 home runs in 2018. Will you take over this season?
Doolittle: Gone. Dear Homer Baseball Stadium, and as I said, I think he will visit the pump in his first season with a new team. While he is inconsistent overall, he is quite consistent when it comes to going deep.
Miller: Over. For the same reason as my average hit rate before.
Matz: Harper's home-stay rate at Citizens Bank Park (6.7 percent) is 50 percent above his rate in all other parks (4.5 percent). I have the end, please.
Passan: In the live-ball era, only 17 players before Harper had an OPS of at least $ 900 in their 25-year season with a minimum of 3,000 record appearances. The average number of home runs in their season at age 26 is 33.1. If this is the baseball field – and the Citizens Bank Bandbox is Harper's actual baseball field – I'm a strong opponent.
Schoenfield: The Citizens Bank Park should give Harper a few extra cheap house runs, but will he get a career high again 695 record appearances? I'll take it, but only one or two.
Harper published a 3.5-year war (with Fangraphs) last year. Will he beat that number this year?
Doolittle: About. Even give Harper a modest regression in BABIP and an improvement in defensive numbers that are so bad that they are hard to repeat, and you have at least one player with five wins.
Miller: He's just better than that!
Matz: Instead of trying not to hurt himself, he tries to win over Philly fans. That should lead to better defensive ratios, which means I take the helm here.
Passan: Publicly available defensive metrics are notoriously picky – that's a way of saying they're not fully trustworthy – a risk that says yes if they're a clear part of the equation. But if he scores over 279 and has more than 34 homers and how he ran last year, the answer will be "yes."
Schoenfield: We know that he comes to power and makes his walks, and his defensive metrics can not be worse than 2018 (he has not dived for a single ball all season). He should be more relaxed with the contract in hand. Over.
Number of postseason attacks for Harper in his first year at the Phillies. Over / Under of … 1.
Doolittle: Under. The Phillies can certainly make the postseason, but I've put them behind the Nationals and Braves, and one of the wildcards is likely to go to a central team.
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2 Related [19659029Miller: Gosh, that's a close one. I buy about 50 percent of the Phillies to do it, and there's a zero chance that Harper gets hurt and is not active in October, so I'll probably have to shut down.
Matz: I got the Phils for a Joker card. So if you do not lose the wildcard game and Harper gets hit (or gets injured) every time, I'm up to scratch.
Passan: I think the Phillies are a wildcard team. Harper also went 0-0 in five walks with Miami last September, allowing him to play the playoffs and not stand a chance. ( Stop being pedantic. ) Fine, over.
Schoenfield: Under. I have won the Nationals and the Phillies ONLY have one of the wildcards.
Citizens Bank Park holds 43,000 fans; How many of them wear Bryce Harper jerseys on opening day? Over / under 4,000.
Doolittle: About. Mob rules.
Miller: In my opinion, the mid-50s is a sweatshirt weather.
Matz: Based on the merch that I saw in the Team Store of Spectrum Field when I was I'm convinced that last week in Clearwater, Florida, about 44,000 of the 43,000 fans on opening day saw the Harper gear be rocking. Over.
Passan: Sub. Maybe if Harper had signed before Christmas.
Schoenfield: I accept the Underworld … if only because the real Diehards are waiting until the second game of the season to emerge.
Bryce Harper makes his first homerun with the Phillies.
Doolittle: March 28th. Harper seems to be a guy giving them what they want. I could also raise these rising expectations.
Miller: Opening day is the only responsible bet for logical reasons. But also Bryce Harper on the opening days (.429 / .538 / 1.143) is one of the most impressive athletes of my life.
Matz: The only thing Harper loves more than the big moment is against Braves Opening day starter Julio Tehran (eight homers in 40 career bats). So, around the 28th of March.
Passan: Opening day, mainly because I'll be there and the world is just begging for purple prose about the love affair between Harper and Philadelphia.
Schoenfield: Opening day. He has a flair for the dramatic and has played five times in six career runs.
Bryce Harper is booed for the first time in Philadelphia.
Doolittle: March 28th. It will eventually fail and that's enough for Philly fans.
Miller: Loud and collective enough to make the game history? Maybe 2021. He will lose some fans if he does not get through in the 2020 World Series.
Matz: March 28th. All it takes is a drunken Philly fan.
Passan: He hits a wall historically in June. Little draws Phillies fans anger like the Mets. June 25
Schoenfield: I'm leaving on April 16, when Jacob deGrom beats him four times.
Harper plays his first game in the World Series.
Doolittle: October 23, 2023. It's a tough division, and the Braves and Nationals should have permanent power. The Mets … we'll see, but the Marlins could set out to win a World Series and then sell all of their players in a few years. The Phillies will come at some point.
Matz: One year after renouncing his no-trade clause and ending in pinstripes.
The Phillies are financially well placed to imprison Rhys Hoskins and JT Realmuto, too, so their window is larger than most. Total spitballing … 2021.
Schoenfield: I mean, 13 years is a long time. I put a piece of paper on each year and put one out of a hat, and the winner is … 2024.
Choose one or the other:
Higher finish in NL East this season: Harper & # 39; s new team or his old team?
Doolittle: Old team. The relatives are good. Not many teams could lose a guy like Harper and still have a second-rate Juan Soto and a rookie winner Victor Robles to comfort them.
Miller: I think nationals were my choice for the NL East. 19659008] Matz: Old team. I have the Nats setting out to become an NL East title.
Passan: Old team. I won the Nationals that won the NL East.
Schoenfield: The old crew.
Bryce Harper's goal in the 2019 NL MVP voting – in the top five or outside the top five?
Doolittle: Inside. If the Phillies do not win the division, it's not his fault. He has many doubters to silence, and he's just the guy motivated by such things.
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Miller: Presumably outside, but only because I'm a coward and consider the literal contradictions instead of choosing the funny answer that accurately reflects my general sentiments about his prospects.
Matz: WAR has become such a strong indicator of the MVP vote, and there are too many men I think are in the lead in this category. So … outside.
Passan: Not just inside. He wins it.
Schoenfield: The NL has so many MVP candidates, and the vote tends to favor the players in the playoff teams at least a little – and I have the Phillies who miss the playoffs Top Five.