The draft is two weeks away and yet we did not see any consensus favorites at the quarterback harvest, let alone a consensus pecking order for the four quarterbacks expected in the first few picks. The last five times that a QB came first (as expected in 2018), we had a good feeling at the time. Even after the Rams traded in 2016, Adam Schefter tweeted on April 14 that the team was leaning on Goff. I would be surprised if we could get similar clarity from him or an insider in the next few days.
The seemingly obvious explanation for the turbidity is that this class is unusually smooth. But even with overcrowded classes of the past, experts have a consistent order, as in 2007, with JaMarcus Russell Brady Quinn Trent Edwards and so produced on. For over a decade, NFL reporter Bob McGinn has asked experts to rate the incoming QBs each year, and this week Bill Barnwell collected many of those rankings to prove how often the evaluators were wrong. But another trend is reflected in the data: the design comments are wrong. As in # 07, 1
When the Pandit class voted on this year's bunch Sam Darnold Josh Rosen Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield – I think it's safe to say that no clear favorite would show up. This has something to do with the fact that these QBs have such different profiles. With a sales-prone leader, a cerebral braggart, a raw athlete, and an under-stat stuffer to choose between, it's mostly about what a decision maker values, leading to a more fundamental disagreement between the many aspects of debate. But let's focus on that diversity of opinions, because I believe that the cluster we're seeing this year has more to do with those who put together the grumpy designs and big forums than with the names that are being pushed around. Just switch to Barnwell's list of McGinn's findings to find evidence.
Classes 2015, 2016 and 2017 also saw historical debates. In any case, the player with the most votes in first place had only one more than the runner-up. At the next race before 2014, there were four votes in the first ballot. Before that, back to 2005, the average difference between first and second place was more than 10 votes. So, what has changed?
To begin with, this whole design of the analytics industry has exploded (see story # 2 below, for more). We now have guys arguing with band boys, arguing with ex-scouts and arguing with rumors that argue with themselves. And many of these factions are also represented in franchises. As already mentioned, each set brings its own preferences and possible red flags that make each group identify their type .
Given all the noise, it is acceptable for the authors to make predictions most of the time wrong, which additionally motivates them to come up with something else. Because hey, if your ridicule is crap, at least make it interesting! Of course, this is often wrong, but it provides further protection for others to follow the same path – and requires them to do so, even if they want your attention. For all other positions where fans are less interested, we still see consensus. But when it comes to quarterback projections, we have a self-sustaining mess. Interview snippets, viral game clips and simplified statistics have the power to change public opinion over and over again for months.
And that's exactly what the league wants it to be. For bean counters in New York, months of debate and uncertainties on design day ensure that the NFL will remain as a 12-month talk piece. Meanwhile, obfuscation benefits Browns and other teams at the top of the bill, strengthens their bargaining power and gives them a competitive advantage in planning how they expect the design to unfold. As the League grows and these decisions become more important, secrecy and espionage in these organizations will only grow rapidly.
Throw everything together. An eclectic group of passers-by. A media environment that welcomes an increasing number of viewpoints and lives off differences. A league hopes for confusion. Only one thing is clear: Horse Race journalism comes for the design, and it tramples everything.
NOW IN MMQB: Conor Orr breaks up the big receiver crisis of the NFL … Tim Rohan Tails Marshawn Lynch in Portugal … Andy Benoit analyzes Josh Allen … and more
WHAT YOU MIGHT MISS: Conor Orr thought about the post after Bill's … Bill King spoke draft with Gil Brandt … Ben Baskin went long on a full contact football league that plays without pads or helmets … and more .
1. Richie Incognito announced his retirement in an interview with The Buffalo News and said a doctor recently told him, "Stress is killing you." The four-time Pro Bowler, who starred for the Rams, Bills and Dolphins, is best known for his role in the Jonathan Martin bullying scandal.
. 2 Rick Maese portrayed Daniel Jeremiah, who has given up climbing the NFL ladder to join the "cottage industry," which is an NFL draft analysis.
. 3 Building on its earlier work, the New York Times published a story Tuesday in which cheerleaders claimed that "groping and sexual harassment are frequent" parts of what they endure at work. The women reported that they had been told, "I hope you will be raped!" and be sent to dance in the basement of a fan.
. 4 What is the most controversial thing Josh Rosen said ESPN? That he would like to win more rings than Tom Brady ? That he wants to be a champion for the fight against global warming? You decide.
5. A Couple Eric Reid notes: The security officials visited Bengals Monday and reportedly refused to return to one year olds after one year.
. 6 Charles Robinson set out the problems that NFL attorneys should face in the dismissal of Colin Kaepernick as part of the QB's merger complaint on Tuesday. These include any salary requirements that he had as a freelance agent, his health, his willingness to play outside the NFL, and so on.
. 7 Get up to speed on this year's prospects with Danny Kelly's one-play guides.
. 8 As The Charlotte Observer reports, the number of names associated with a possible purchase of the Carolina Panthers appears to be increasing and not shrinking. Six weeks before the league hopes the league to be able to present a finalist at the meeting of the May owners. 19659024] 9. Whether or not D.J. Moore turns out to be as good as his Maryland product Stepon Diggs it seems that NFL teams will snap him much earlier than the fifth round. And for a good reason.
10th Packers wideout Trevor Davis will probably not make explosive jokes at a ticket counter in the near future.
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