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Home / World / No deal Brexit would be a "disaster" for travelers, experts warn

No deal Brexit would be a "disaster" for travelers, experts warn

(CNN) – Food shortages. Inadequate medical care. Riots and street blockades. Lack of fuel. Delays at the border.

It is a scenario in which travelers from all over the world could fly in if the current plans to crash out of the European Union are respected.

That's enough to deter Stephen Pickett, a sales director from Toronto.

"Why should I go to get caught in something?" He told CNN Travel. "This is not something I want to get my way through."

47-year-old Pickett has announced a planned visit in November to October to avoid potential disruptions. And he has put plans for further visits and a move to London in December on ice.

Britain is expected to leave the EU at 23.00. October 31


And while British nationals are concerned about how this affects their travel plans, a third of British travelers fear that flights to Europe could be disrupted, according to a survey by consumer group Which? – Travelers who want to fly to the UK have more pressing concerns.

On six pages, the government document nicknamed Operation Yellowhammer describes the potential outcome of a Brexit without local agreement.

Britain's government – which was forced by Parliament to publish the document after it leaked to the Sunday Times newspaper – insists that Yellowhammer is a "reasonable worst-case" scenario. However, Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon said that the Scottish government was told that the document was a "baseline scenario".

In addition, an industry analyst told CNN that Yellowhammer was "surprisingly optimistic about travel." – and that in the case of a no-deal, people could wait days in frontier lines between Britain and the EU.

& # 39; Significant Disruption & # 39;

  Queues at ports and airports could continue

Queues at ports and airports could take "days".


Yellowhammer predicts "major disruptions of up to six months" for canal crossings affecting food and medical care.

"Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease," warns. The veterinary care can be interrupted, which can lead to disease outbreaks in livestock, which can also affect the food chain.

The fuel supply in London and the south-east of England would be disrupted and bottlenecks could occur throughout the country.

It is also warned of a "rise in public disorder", "protests and counter-protests" and roadblocks.

"There is much more stability in Canada, as good as London is, why should I put my toe into something when I put it on, you do not know what's going to happen?" Said Pickett.

Although he married a British woman in August, hoping to move to London later this year, this is now on hold.

"The plan was to test in the last week of November where we wanted to live and move to Christmas," he said. "But I do not want to spend the money and I can not go there because of riots."

He and his wife Elizabeth are now considering whether it would be easier for them to move to Canada while bringing their own one month trip.

"I wanted to make another visit before Brexit, as we are not sure what will happen," he said.

"We do not know how easy it will be to get started, what the queue will look like, or what the food situation will be like, and their parents are worried about the supply of their medication."

"If so going on, I could be the person who brings everything to them. "

" If we were flying to Heathrow I would be scared "

  travelers could camp at airports.

Travelers could camp at airports.


Pickett is not the only traveler who rates their options Especially to the UK, it is scheduled to fly to Yorkshire in November – a trip booked before the departure date.

"There are definitely slight concerns but we're flying to a regional airport, "she said." If we fly to Heathrow, I would be horrified. "

She said she was less concerned about food and fuel shortages in rural northern England.

I'm a sensible baker and eat a lot of herbal products, as long as I have lentils and flour I'm fine. But I have booked an extra bag for the hold, so we will probably be discussing a few days in advance which food we should bring. [19659003] The good side for O'Hare? If Operation Yellowhammer becomes a reality, the pound will likely lose value too.

"I'll probably be duty-free at the airport," she said, and the UK Treasury Secretary announced recently reintroduced duty-free purchases such as alcohol and cigarettes after Brexit to travelers on their way to Europe.

Border queues could last for days.

  Say goodbye to the fast lane, widening border controls between Britain and the EU Expect overly long waiting times.

Say Goodbye to the Fast Lane: Stricter border controls between the UK and the EU are likely to lead to long queues.

Oli Scarff / Getty Images

Travelers should be less worried about riots and Food shortages – but they should be serious concerns h the transition between the two countries have Britain and EU countries, says Tom Jenkins, CEO of ETOA, a trade association for tour operators in European destinations.

UK-based Jenkins believes it is unlikely that agreement will be reached Make it illegal. So if you leave without an agreement, Prime Minister Boris Johnson must break the law.

However, if things continue, the circumstances described in Yellowhammer are "very reserved" and "surprisingly optimistic" when it comes to crossing borders.

Guidelines issued by the European Commission in November 2018 state that the United Kingdom Citizens entering the Schengen area of ​​26 countries in Europe are treated as "third-country nationals" at passport control – at the level of travelers other continents.

You can no longer use fast lanes for EU citizens. and diverted to the lanes of other nationalities, leading to more thorough reviews. Passports are checked to see where they have gone, and they are asked about the duration and purpose of their stay and whether they have enough money to survive.

"The implication is that everyone will be held up for at least 60 seconds, and the massive influx of British travelers to Europe will make it difficult to carry out all these processes," Jenkins said.

"When you arrive on Berlin Tegel [airport] on a UK flight, there could be two immigration lanes per aircraft, one for EU citizens and one for non-EU citizens."

No-deal-Brexit, the non-EU citizen line could be 200-strong. That's a wait of three hours.

"If five planes arrive at the same time, you have a lot of problems.

" In Spain, where every five minutes British flights land in Britain, that's the case. It's going to be something spectacular.

And he says the delays may not affect EU citizens, but they can continue to use the passing lanes – as long as Britain does not control them – – citizens of other countries will be involved in the chaos.

"We He talks for hours at each airport for non-EU citizens, "he said." This is not a worst-case scenario – it's a plausible worst case scenario. The European countries will enforce what they have been prescribed.

"The worst scenario is 24 hours late in the first 24 hours." days of waiting at passport control.

Although this will not affect travelers traveling alone to the UK, most non-EU citizens traveling to Europe for the first time connect the UK to mainland Europe, Jenkins says. By far the best-selling package that moves its tour operator is a journey between London and Paris in two centers. 19659003]

America remains positive – unless it comes to riots.

  When the riots in Britain get like this, Americans will stop coming.

When the riots in the United Kingdom become so, the Americans will become so stop coming

Helen Regan

Not all are so worried. Tom Marchant, co-founder of luxury travel provider Black Tomato, says Tanking Pound is very popular with overseas clients this year.

as they now consider them cheap, "he said.

Jack Ezon is the founder of Embark Beyond Travel, a member of the global travel network Virtuoso." From an American perspective, we talked about it for three years, "he said CNN.

"After the referendum [2016]we saw a decline in holiday travel to Britain. But there was so much going back. "And further, people are now following the approach:" I will not cancel anything until I know what's going to happen. "

His high-end customers will continue to visit London, the Brexit or not, because "If there are riots on the streets, I'm sure you will see an immediate decline."

He compares the potential situation to the current riots in Hong Kong.

"Hong Kong is too a business travel destination, but people are shifting their meetings to mainland China. Vacationers relocate their base for Southeast Asia to Singapore or Bangkok.

"The household market would be affected first, most of it has not traveled so far and is more anxious."

"The luxury market has tended to travel better and be more suspicious of media news, but when it gets that loud, they also move away.

"For us [Americans] traveling to London is not a journey of a lifetime, it's not like I like to go to Australia or on a safari that you've invested so much in. Most are for business or for business three or four days on the road, if you cancel the day before, it will not change your life. "

An American I will not let the noise come to him is Ken Plunkett, a Minneapolis bar owner.

He flies to London on November 2 and two days later to Italy before returning home via London.

"I think everything will work out," he told CNN. "If we have to wait for hours at the border, we have to wait, I will not cancel my trip."

"It reminds me of the year 2000, when we thought the whole world would crash. but nothing happened. I take that attitude.

Not even the prospect of unrest can deter Plunkett, who has been in Europe since 1965. He would not go to Hong Kong at the moment because he is protesting against the government, but says he would still travel to London, even if there are riots.

"I understand the people in the UK," he told CNN. "They are not very different from us. We have protests and marches, and it does not stop people from going to New York City or Washington DC. We are a country with laws and Britain too.

"I would give Britain a passport more than other countries."

In the meantime, he looks forward to a low-performing pound like Grania O & Hare.

"Sure, I'll spend a lot of money," he said. "I do not want the economy to collapse for the few dollars I'm going to save, but let's just say we like the strong dollar."

Ezon agrees.

"In the early days of the Eurozone, Americans made great pilgrimages as the price-performance ratio was so good compared to the US dollar, with people going two or three times a year.


A "Disaster" for the Journey

So far, the reduced pound seemed to attract visitors to a pre-Brexit Britain.

The numbers published by Visit Britain attest to these flight bookings in From September to November, the UK increased by 5% year-on-year, bookings from China up 23%.

Tom Jenkins, who works with tour operators from around the world, believes that global markets are more difficult than Americans. [19659003] "China is a fragile market, and I think that's perfectly reasonable," he said. [Coming from] ad If you know another culture, you'll be radically affected by disruption and supply disruption . "

And although he believes that the food, drug and fuel shortages affect visitors far less than UK residents, this is a bad look.

"Food shortages and delays at the border do not make Britain seem like a good place."

"No deal would be a direct disaster. "

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