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It's about temperatures between 5,000 and 10,000 feet. Subtropical storms have cooler upper-level temperatures than tropical storms.
David D & # 39; Aquin, ddaquin@theadvertiser.com

The hurricane season 2018. The sentence alone is probably enough reason to issue a Trigger Watch for every Florida resident who has survived the glass fall of the emotion of the 2017 season.

And unfortunately, although the 2018 season technically begins on Friday June 1 Subtropical storm Alberto is already on the way, the Memorial Day weekend for much of Florida, the Southeast and the to devour eastern Gulf Coast.

However, klo like Alberto will not reach the trigger warning criteria for the Big Bend, as the main influence over the next five to seven days will be due to irregular heavy rains. Starting at 5 pm Friday, the broad center of Subtropical Storm Alberto is located several hundred kilometers southeast of Cancun, Mexico, in the northwestern Caribbean.

Maximum sustained winds are 40 miles per hour, mostly well north and east of the center. A tropical storm watch is now in operation from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to Indian Pass, Florida.

Satellite imagery and evening reconnaissance data show that Alberto is badly organized, with several small circulations turning around a wider area of ​​low pressure. 19659011] ►STORM TRACKER AND MODEL MIXER: Click here for the latest model tracks from the Storm Trail.

Tallahassee Authority Presented at 2017 Hurricane Season [Photo: Special to the Democrat]

If you're wondering what the sub-submarine Tropical, it is the fact that Alberto interacts closely with a higher-lying lows in the west, meaning that the warm core that is typical of tropical cyclones is only found in the near-surface layers of the atmosphere.

This structural difference means thunderstorm activity and the strongest winds are much further away from the center circulation in a subtropical storm than a tropical storm.

Alberto fights with strong western wind shear and dry air, so that the day on Saturday is not expected to produce any significant reinforcement. The system moves near the western flank of the high pressure area near Bermuda.

There is likely to be a "jump" northeast to the center's location, as the multiple circulations combine to provide greater convective activity within the next day

How and where that happens will determine who Alberto is at the center Gulf Coast's worst hit, and as a fun bonus for the forecasters, it's very hard to predict until it happens.

Overnight Saturday into Sunday, Alberto is likely to turn westward in the central gulf, as he is merging with another middle fault presently across the southern plains before resuming a northward motion near the central Gulf Coast on Monday under the influence of the Atlantic Ridge to the east and a hollow in the Midwest.

Atlantic Hurricane Season 2018:

Alberto's main threat remains 3 to 5 inches of rain over the entire peninsula of Florida and the east Gulf Coast with a local maximum of up to 10 inches between New Orleans and Panama City possible.

Alberto is tending towards a slower entry into the Gulf, which reduces the risk of a large barn near land, and some of the bigger risks bring extreme flooding scenarios off the board. After landing, Alberto is likely to move slowly north through north and northeast through Wednesday through the deep south and Tennessee Valley.

While heavy precipitation remains the broadest impact, with those 3-inch sums extending hundreds of miles east of where the center lands The effects of wind and coastal floods may not be insignificant here.

On approaching the northern Gulf Coast, Alberto will cross some abnormally warm shelf waters, is more likely to be traditional in organization, and will be in a favorable runoff environment

This could lead to a heightened trend on late Sunday and Memorial Day.

Alberto, which consolidated further east, would prefer the route crossing the shoreline of Alabama or West Florida Panhandle, as opposed to eastern Louisiana or Mississippi, if further west.

This afternoon's GFS and Euro-Ensemble members are relatively tightly clustered, with the JRC generally favoring the westward scenario, the E East scenario, and the wildcard UKMET model east of both.

Based on current trends, I lean towards the eastern side of the guidance envelope. Historically, landfalls favor the eastern Gulf before 15 June.

In terms of intensity, there is only one historic Gulf hurricane landfall before mid-June (Alma, 1966). While each storm is the product of its own environment, climatology supports a moderate to elevated tropical storm on landfall, consistent with the current NHC forecast for 65 mph maximum sustained winds as Alberto crosses the central Gulf Coast. [19659011] For the Big Bend Alberto will surely be almost west of us.

Expect a normal thunderstorm activity in the afternoon Saturday with heavy rainfall probably coming from the south sometime Sunday and continuing overnight until Monday. Tornadoes are common in this type of outer band, especially along the immediate coast. Coastal blizzards up to 40 mph are possible in squalls, and extremely dangerous tearing currents are likely for all panhandle beaches this weekend.

The forecast for Monday is more uncertain; If Alberto is closer to Florida, the Big Bend could see continued heavy rainfall, but it is also possible that the dry continental air that wraps the system from the west will knock the rain cover off for at least part of Memorial Day. Tuesday and Wednesday are likely to stay damp as Alberto retreats, but leaves a deep catch of tropical moisture in his wake.

Bottom line, Alberto is probably a typical storm in the Gulf of Mexico in the early days: broad, loosely organized, and spreading heavy rains in its east. I'll keep a close eye on this claim jumping system over the holiday weekend if it's trying to do more.

The Tallahassee Democrat is working with Weather Tiger and meteorologist Ryan Truchelut, Ph.D., to bring you weekly hurricane and storm forecasts, as well as other hurricane-related news this season. For more information visit weathertiger.com

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