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Not a single cool month in the last 628 months



India, which has just experienced one of the hottest Septembers of the last century, loses at least 400 people to heatwaves every year

  The world has reported the warmest years in rapid succession. Credit: Getty Images
The world has reported the warmest years in quick succession. Credit: Getty Images

More than 80 percent of the world's population, born in the last 50 years, lives in an earth that has a fever that simply does not subside. This could be called the generation that grew with a new atmosphere; badly maligned by people. In April 201

7, scientists from Climate Central – an international association of scientists and journalists who report and research on climate change – published an impressive graph that has been increasing in temperature since 1880 from month to month. "There was no cool month in 628 months." Climate Central crunched a huge amount of data from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) into a strong one-sided map that showed months coinciding with higher temperatures than the baseline average global temperatures between 1881 (coincidentally) with the Industrial Revolution ) and 1910 in red.

The blue color represented relatively cooler months. Finally, the diagram appeared completely smeared with red paint. In the last 50 years, every month has been reported as warmer than at the beginning of industrialization. Climate Central's Brian Kahn said, "Cool blues have disappeared and been replaced by a wave of endless heat, and climate change is likely to continue the heat spell of the warmer months for the foreseeable future as temperatures continue to rise."

Seven months previously, researchers from the University of Reading in the UK had compiled 167 annual global temperature page maps for 1850-2016. These maps showed global historical surface temperature anomalies relative to a baseline of 1961-1990. It came to a similar conclusion: continuous increase in the annual surface temperature. But it brought out another trend: Surface temperatures had risen dramatically, especially since the 1990s.

For Indians and to some extent for people from all continents, this was no surprise. Since then, the world has reported the warmest years in rapid succession. Since 1992, heat waves have killed 22,562 people in India. There have been no fewer than 393 deaths from heat waves in India every year for the past 23 years. Between 1992 and 2004, the death toll exceeded 1,000 and twice in 1995 and 1998. Since then, more than 1,000 people have died in seven heatwaves. The worst summer in terms of victims was in 2015, when 2,422 people died. Until then, 1998 was the warmest year of a century.

The temperature in July 2016 over global land and ocean surfaces was 1.57 ° F higher than the 20th century average of 60.4 ° F. At a time when every month seemed to break some records, that was the highest in July in the years 1880-2016, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by 0.11 ° F, the previous record for the warmest month since record. July 2016 was the 40th consecutive July with temperatures at least nominally above the 20th century average. July 1976 was the last time that global land and sea temperatures were below average. July 2016 had the lowest monthly global temperature deviation from the average since August 2015, and was the 15th highest monthly temperature drop among all months (1,639) in record time with August 2015.

Science had definitely diagnosed the fever; It was also certain now that Earth had been under a warming spell for more than a century. Over four decades, it was discussed whether the warming was "natural" or "human". The scientific basis for this doubt of attribution is the fact that the Earth has undergone alternative phases of cooling and warming. Ice ages were the most impressive arguments thrown around to convince that the current warming spell was only natural. However, there was not much scientific evidence against the verdict that global warming is due to human factors. And the climate anomalies were a consequence of these factors.

Earth's climate is a complex, interactive system consisting of atmosphere, land surface, snow and living things; like you and me and the beautiful trees and tigers. The atmospheric component of the climate system most clearly characterizes the climate; therefore the climate is generally defined as "average weather". So climate change and weather are intertwined. Observations can show that the weather has changed, and it is the statistic of weather changes over time that identifies climate change. The climate system evolves over time under the influence of its own internal dynamics. It can also evolve due to changes in external factors affecting the climate – these factors are referred to as "forcing". External "drives" include natural phenomena such as volcanic eruptions and solar variations as well as man-made changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere.

Let's first understand the basics of the Earth's climate system, because that was precisely the cause Global Climate Change Policy: Who caused it and who is blamed for it? Radiation energy from the sun drives the climate system. About 30 percent of the sunlight that reaches the top of the atmosphere is reflected back into space. About two-thirds of this reflection is due to clouds and small particles in the atmosphere known as "aerosols." Lighter areas of the earth's surface – mainly snow, ice and deserts – reflect the remaining sunlight.

The energy, which is not reflected back into space, is absorbed by the earth's surface and atmosphere and is about 240 watts per square meter (W / square meter). To balance the incoming energy, the Earth itself has to radiate the same amount of energy back into space on average. Earth does this by emitting outgoing longwave radiation. Everything on Earth continuously emits longwave radiation. The warmer an object, the more heat energy it radiates.

To emit 240 W / m², a surface should have a temperature of -19 ° C. This is much colder than the actual conditions on the earth's surface. The required -19 ° C is about 5 km above the surface. So how is the earth warmer?

This question led to the discovery of the greenhouse effect and also to the elucidation of the human causes of global warming. Ed Hawkins, who worked for the British National Center for Atmospheric Science, wrote: "In the 1820s, the French mathematician Joseph Fourier tried to understand the various factors affecting the Earth's temperature, but he found a problem – according to his calculations, the Earth would have The most obvious factor, the Sun, did not seem to supply enough energy to raise the Earth's temperature above freezing Fourier's initial ideas that there must be extra energy coming from the Earth's core or from the temperature of the Earth Space came, were soon rejected, and Fourier realized that the atmosphere, which initially seemed transparent, could play a crucial role. "

The global average surface temperature of the Earth is about 14 ° C. This is due to the presence of gases used as a partial ceiling for the long-wave str act.

This overlay is called a natural greenhouse effect.

The glass walls in a garden greenhouse reduce the airflow Increase the temperature of the air inside. By analogy, but through another physical process, the Earth's greenhouse effect heats the surface of the planet. Without the natural greenhouse effect, the average temperature at the Earth's surface would be below the freezing point of water. So the natural greenhouse effect of the earth makes life possible, as we know it. And global warming had other unnatural reasons. Let us dive deep into the story of how we arrived at this conclusion.

(This story was published in the book "Climate Change Now" under the title "Turbulent Postulates of Science")


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