By Paul Vigna | [email protected] | Posted on 20. October 2018 at 06:25 | Updated on October 20, 2018 at 12:16 pm
Since the successive years of the Polar Spike in 2013-14 and 2014-15, winters in Pennsylvania have been largely tame, especially in the last two seasons.
Yes, there were some cold spells, but nothing like two winters, when temperatures seemed to fluctuate below zero for days.
The snow has fallen even though the worst storms have been waiting until March for the past few years.
Part of it was blamed for the lack of an El Niño weather pattern. Others have attributed it only to climate change and a slow increase in average temperatures.
What follows is a compilation of predictions, both from humans and from "beast", for the coming winter. We know by April 2019 who was most likely to get it right.
NOAA via AP
Snow, but how much?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its winter forecast Thursday and forecast "weather-as-average" conditions for the Central Atlantic region for December through February. It is not speculated about how much of this rainfall will be known.
"Snow forecasts are usually predictable no longer than a week in advance," the agency said. "Even during a warmer than average winter, periods of cold weather and snowfall are still likely."
About three quarters of the United States is more likely to be warmer than the average than colder than the average this winter. The forecast for the winter outlook 2018-1920 and the drought are likely to continue or worsen in the Intermountain West.
Take a look at the video to see how the NOAA lowers its prediction.
Accuweather released its forecast for the winter of 2018-19 for the country on October 5, and the highlight was the return of an El Niño weather pattern.
Click this link to watch the video that summarized Accuweather's thoughts this coming winter.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, which typically occurs every few years. The last one in 2016 was linked to crop damage, fires and flash floods in the northern hemisphere.
According to this Reuters story from May 2018, the possibility of a transition to El Niño weather patterns was nearly 50 percent by 2018-19 Northern Hemisphere winter, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Committee (CPC) said in its monthly forecast  If you're really a weather freak, check out this 2015-16 presentation on El Niño and what it generally means for the Middle Atlantic
There are a number of videos that explain the weather patterns, but my favorite is the one which is attached to this film by National Geographic.
A light start  According to AccuWeather, "mild air will remain in the northeast and mid-Atlantic during the first winter months".