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Home / US / Overheat watch Sunday and Monday – Barry threatens Louisiana with historic flooding

Overheat watch Sunday and Monday – Barry threatens Louisiana with historic flooding



Hottest summer weather next week?

Unlike tornadoes that publish self-published Instagram-only selfies and scare people, hurricanes serve a purpose. They are nature's automatic pressure relief valves that carry excess heat and moisture from the tropics to the poles.

"Barry" should reach hurricane status this morning, before slowly becoming weaker in the interior of the country. Cyclones are wetter and slower in trend – not a great combination. Most injuries and damage are now due to inland floods, some of which are several hundred kilometers from the mainland.

Thunderstorms too are overpressure valves, the natural way of cooling a superheated atmosphere. Stray storms could come up next week, but the big story will be the heat of the building: ECMWF predicts that 7 of the next 1

0 days could bring 90-degree heat to the twin cities. Models suggest mid-90s late next week, before the refreshing Canadian air flows into Minnesota in the last week of July. By the way, our hottest weather is usually mid to late July. No exceptions this year.


Praedictix Briefing : Issued on Saturday, July 13 2019

  • Tropical storm Barry moves slowly this morning towards the coast of Louisiana, with a slight boost. After the CDT update at 7 am from the National Hurricane Center, Barry had wind speeds of 70 mph and was heading northwest at 5 mph. The center of the system was 50 miles west-southwest of Morgan City, LA.
  • Barry is expected to see additional reinforcement in the next few hours and later land as a Category 1 hurricane on the Louisiana coast. From there, the system weakens as it moves further north to northwest into the interior.
  • Watches and warnings in force this morning on the coast include:
    • A Hurricane Warnin g from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle.
    • A Tropical Storm Warning from the mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas, including the metropolis of New Orleans, and from Intracoastal City to Cameron.
    • A Hurricane Watch from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle and from Intracoastal City to Cameron
    • A Tropical Storm Watch from the east of the Pearl River estuary to the border Mississippi / Alabama
    • A Storm Surge Warning from Intracoastal City to Biloxi and for Pontchartrain Lake
    • A Storm Surge from Biloxi to the Mississippi / Alabama border
  • Everywhere in the Inland:
    • For New Iberia and Houma (LA) a Hurricane Warning applies. Tropical storm warning, Baton Rouge and New Orleans (LA) applies to Alexandria
    • For Gulfport and Biloxi (MS)
  • there is a Tropical Storm Watch . 19659009] Heavy Rain and Floods : Barry remains at risk of heavy rainfall and floods, as rainfall of 10 to 25 inches is expected in southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. This heavy rainfall is likely to lead to a large, life-threatening flash flood event across the region, and there is a high likelihood of flash floods in southeast Louisiana today. In other parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and the western Tennessee Valley, rainfall of 4 to 12 inches is possible.
  • Storm Tide : The threat of a dangerous storm surge continues today from southern Louisiana to the Mississippi coast, including Lake Pontchartrain, where the storm surge warning is present. The highest flood is expected from Intracoastal City and Shell Beach, where a storm surge of up to 6 feet is possible when the flood is timed. In this way rising water is routed inland to normally dry areas .
  • Winds : There will be hurricane winds around the landing area in south-central Louisiana today. With tropical storm winds spreading inland across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi.

Barry from Saturday morning. Since the CDT update at 7am from the National Hurricane Center, Barry has grown a bit stronger with wind speeds of 110km / h. The system is slowly approaching the coast of Louisiana, moving northwest at 8 km / h. The center of the system was located 50 miles west-southwest of Morgan City, LA, or 60 miles south of Lafayette, LA. A weather station on Eugene Island, LA, recently reported sustained wind speeds of 115 km / h with a gust of 120 km / h.

Barry is to land later today. Barry will continue to move slowly towards the coast of Louisiana this morning and land in the next few hours. Although the forecasting cone does not make Barry appear explicitly as a hurricane, additional hurricane strength enhancement is predicted before landing. When Barry advances inland from north to northwest, the weakening begins and the system turns into a tropical depression on Sunday afternoon. Despite this weakening, heavy rains will continue in the lower Mississippi Valley and Western Tennessee Valley early next week.

Hurricane and tropical storm warnings. With the impact of Barry along the northern Gulf Coast, we continue to see warnings of hurricanes and tropical storms this morning. In the area under hurricane warnings, hurricane conditions (wind speeds over 74 mph) are possible during the daytime. Along the coast, tropical warnings apply to the following areas:

A hurricane warning applies to …
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical The storm warning applies to …
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Grand Isle
* Pontchartrain Lake and Maurepas Lake including the metropolis of New Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

] A Hurricane Watch is in Force for …
* Mouth of the Mississippi to the Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for ….
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to the border between Mississippi and Alabama.

About the Inland:

  • There are hurricane warnings for New Iberia and Houma (LA).
  • Tropical Storm There are warnings for Alexandria, Baton Rouge and New Orleans (LA).
  • Gulfp has tropical storm watches on site and Biloxi (MS)

We will see the potential for heavy rains, storm surges, storm winds and tornadoes with Barry early next week. Here is a breakdown of the threats associated with Barry:

Heavy Rain and Flood Hazards

Heavy rainfall and flood event. We continue to watch the heavy rains and floods that will come from Barry across the Gulf Coast and the lower Mississippi Valley. This is likely to be the largest impact of the system in the entire region, as precipitation of at least 10-20 inches is expected over parts of southeastern Louisiana to the southwestern Mississippi. In some places it can continue to rain up to 25 inches. The strongest rain with a tropical system typically falls along and to the east of the circulation center, causing places such as New Orleans, Houma and Baton Rouge to experience the expected heavy rainfall. On the narrower rain map above, you can still see a porthole with at least 15-20 inches of precipitation south of Baton Rouge and west of Houma. This multi-day rain event could, from today, lead to a life-threatening flash flood event across the region. Elsewhere in the lower Mississippi Valley (including the west side of the Barry route) and the western Tennessee Valley, precipitation levels of 4 to 8 inches (with isolated 12 inches) will be available by early next week.

Flood potential. This afternoon in particular, heavy rainbands are expected to hit parts of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi at a potential precipitation rate of at least 2 to 3 inches per hour. This is likely to result in total days (until Sunday morning) of 10-20 inches south and east of Barry's total distance. Starting this morning, the trends have this axis of heaviest rain falling from Morgan City to Baton Rouge. This heavy rain is expected to result in significant and life-threatening flash floods in parts of this region in a short space of time. As a result, there is a high risk of flash floods in southeast Louisiana and the extreme southwest of Mississippi. Heavy rain will continue to be possible as the system moves north. On Sunday, there is a modest risk of flash floods from northern Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas back to the coast of central Louisiana and on Monday across parts of northwestern Mississippi, eastern Arkansas and southwestern Tennessee.

Flash flood watches . Due to the expected heavy rain with Barry are Flash Flood Watches from the northern Gulf Coast to West Tennessee and the southeast of Missouri in use.

Storm surge

Dangerous storm surge. Coastal floods will continue today, and a combination of storm surge and high tide could increase dangerous amounts of water on the coast. This would cause areas that are normally dry to be flooded with water that flows inland from the shore. Already this morning, a storm surge of 2.8 inches was reported at the New Canal Station. When the waterfall rise coincides with the tide, we can observe the following storm surge from Barry:

  • Intracoastal City to Shell Beach … 3 to 6 feet
  • Shell Beach to Biloxi MS … 3 to 5 feet
  • Lake Pontchartrain … 3 to 5 feet
  • Biloxi MS to the border between Mississippi and Alabama … 2 to 4 feet
  • Lake Maurepas … 1 to 3 feet

Storm flood warnings. Due to the storm surge potential, there are storm-tide warnings from Intracoastal City to Biloxi and for Lake Pontchartrain with a storm surge monitoring from Biloxi to the Mississippi-Alabama border.

Wind Hazard [19659070]

Expected high wind gusts. While tropical storm forces are occurring in parts of southeastern Louisiana this morning, hurricane conditions in areas south of the central state of Louisiana that are under hurricane warnings are possible later. While strong tropical storm winds will be possible as Barry advances north to Louisiana, the system will weaken, which will help reduce the wind danger until Sunday and Monday in northern Louisiana and Arkansas.

[19459016Tornadothreat

Tornadoes possible. Landing systems such as Barry typically have at least the threat of individual tornadoes in the stronger rainbands. The biggest risk today is in southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi, where there is little risk of bad weather.

D.J.. Kayser, meteorologist, Praedictix


A wet week in many places. Here is an excerpt from a contribution by Dr. Ing. Mark Seeley at Minnesota WeatherTalk: "… NOAA scientists announced this week that it was the wettest period of 12 months in the adjacent US for the period from July 2018 to June 2019, surpassing June's record so far 2018 to May 2019, which had exceeded previous records from May 2018 to April 2019.

July 2018 to June 2019 4th wettest in history
June 2018 to May 2019 as wettest in history (2010-2011)
May 2018 to April 2019 3rd wettest in history

All 12-month periods returned an average rainfall of more than 30 cm (32 inches) seems to have some stamina, and in 2019 many climate stations will have their wettest year … "





Precipitation and Departure in the Midwest and US Since January 1st, courtesy of Praedictix and AerisWeather.




2019 Hurricane Files: Steps Before the Arrival of a Hurricane . I wrote to Medium and AerisWeather, which has updated statistics on hurricane deaths – in recent years, inland floods have been (by far) the biggest killer: "… My plan … is to make a plan . " The hurricane season is here. Do you live in the hurricane alley? Coastal residents are affected by hurricanes and storm surges (sudden rise in water level in front of the eye), but severe floods can strike homeowners hundreds of miles inland. "In fact, the inland flood has in recent years surpassed the storm surge as the largest waterborne killer : From 2016 to 2018, 83% of deaths were water-related deaths, but only 4% of them were due to storm surges The Center (NHC) in Miami estimates that half of all hurricane victims died in vehicles: only 6 inches of fast flowing water you can overturn 2 feet of water can turn a car or truck into a boat, with tragic consequences. .. "



"Floodier Future": Scientists say that records are broken . The Associated Press reports: " The federal government warns Americans to prepare for a" tigerier "future Government scientists predict that 40 US locations this year will see higher levels of flooding than normal due to the rise in sea levels and an abnormal one El Nino Weather System: A report from Wednesday's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts floods will continue to increase on sunny days, also known as tidal floods, said William Sweet, a NOAA oceanographer and principal author of the study … "

image credits :" In this file, residents move on October 5, 2017 a According to a report released Wednesday, July 10, 2019, scientists predict that 40 Places in the US will have higher than normal rates of so-called floods caused by the tide of the King in Fort Lau derdale, Florida, sunny day fl Is too high this year due to rising sea level and an abnormal El Nino weather system . [Joe Cavaretta / South Florida Sun-Sentinel via AP]


Killer Hail in Greece. Daily Beast has details: " Six tourists, including two children, were killed and more than 100 people were injured when violent hailstorms and tornadoes met Wednesday night a tourist hotspot in northern Greece. The unprecedented summer storm overturned caravans. In Chalkidiki, south of the popular spa town of Thessaloniki, trees were felled and cars turned over. Meteorologist Klearxos Marousakis described a medical center in the region that treated more than 60 people for injuries, including fractures, and declared a state of emergency for the region the 20 minute storm as "extremely unusual", which notes that the temperatures in recent days have risen to 37 ° C … "

image credits : SAKIS MITROLIDIS.


Fresh water management In the United States Here is an excerpt from a post at NASA: "… The Army Corps would like to know how much change is expected over the next 50-100 years across the country This may affect the operation of the corps infrastructure such as dams and hydroelectric plants: "Water safety has the right amount of water at the right time The tools developed as part of the project allow water managers to develop modernization and maintenance strategies Andy Wood, senior scientist at NCAR, said Wood's team worked closely with water managers in the United States and integrated their feedback into tools who use the NASA model for the land information system to monitor and predict seasonal changes in water supply at … "


Billions of air pollutants found in the hearts of city dwellers. An article in The Guardian made me do it twice: " The hearts of young city dwellers contain billions of toxic air pollutants, research has shown, even in the youngest subject in the study, who was three years old Seeing Damage The study suggests that these iron-rich particles, which are produced by automobiles and the industry, are the cause of the longstanding statistical link between dirty air and heart disease. Scientists said that the abundance of nanoparticles poses a serious problem for the industry More than 90% of the world's population lives in toxic air, according to the World Health Organization, which has classified the problem as "air pollution" a global "public health emergency."


The fight between Strea ming platforms will be uncomfortable, so much will it cost . Nextweb.com has the story: " If you have not heard, Netflix licks content: Friends leave Netflix for HBO Max, The Office leaves Netflix for NBCUniversals upcoming streaming service and all Marvel and Star Wars content leaves Netflix And this is just the tip of the iceberg … The streaming wars are getting even hotter, and Disney, AT & T, Comcast, and Apple will be releasing their own consumer video-on video. Soon you'll need to switch between Netflix, HBO Max , Disney +, Hulu (possibly bundled under Disney +), Apple TV Plus, Amazon Prime Video and possibly a streaming service from the possible merger of Viacom and CBS. .. "

Americans should not have to drive but the law insists. Huh? The author makes some conclusive statements in a post on the Atlantic Ocean: "… In America, the freedom of movement is marked with an asterisk: the obligation to drive." This truism was confirmed by the US Supreme Court, which has done so Pronounced car ownership is a "virtual necessity." The ruling of the court is meaningful Yes, in a sense, America depends on the choice of the car – but it also depends on the law Legislators have reformulated the rules of American life over several generations, to match them to the interests of Big Oil, the auto-barons and the car-loving 1 percent of the wild twenties superiority – that kills 40,000 Americans a year and severely injures more than 4 million people – consider all those harmed by emissions and climate change and the damage is even greater.As a teenager growing up in the shadow of Detroit, ic had h no reason to feel that was unfair, much less legally promoted. It's both … "

Polish these tin foil hats .CNN has the story:" Over 300,000 people have signed up for a Facebook event to raid Area 51 in Nevada looking for "aliens". Entitled "Storm Area 51, You Can not Stop Us All," the event invites users from around the world to take part in a "Naruto Run" – a Japanese manga-inspired running style with arms outstretched and heads pointing forward , – In the area. "We can move faster than their bullets," promises the event page, which is clearly written with the tongue in the cheek, those who registered for September 20 .



86 F high yesterday in Twin Cities.

84 F Average high on July 12.

95 F High on July 12, 2018.

July 13, 1933 : An intense heatwave hits Grand Marais at an extremely rare high of 90 for this location. Most of Minnesota would exceed 100 degrees that day. [19659003] July 13, 1890 [19659070]: A tornado hits Lake Gervais north of St. Paul, people are pushing from St. Paul to help the victims and search for souvenirs, a reporter notes that "almost everyone who returned from the disaster last night was loaded with moments (sic) was the anger of the cyclone.


SATURDAY : Sunny and Pleasant Winds: S 2-5 High: 87

SUNDAY : Overheat station, sticky sun, few T-sto rms around, Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 70. High: near 90

MONDAY: overheating Sunny, windy and hot Winds: SW 10-20 Wake up: 72. High: 92

TUESDAY: Sultry, few t-storms in the Wind: SW 8-13 Wake-up: 73. High: 87

WEDNESDAY: Stormy start, then hot sunshine Wind: S 10-20 Wake-up: 71. High: 90

THURSDAY : Dull sunshine, stinking hot winds: SW 8-13 waking up: 73. high: 91

FRIDAY: Arizona with lakes, bright sunshine, winds: S 8-13, wake-up: 72. High: 94 19659080] Climate Stories …

Climate change fills hurricanes with more rain. Warmer air + warmer water = more water vapor , more fuel for storms, including hurricanes.Here is an excerpt from the New York Times: "… In recent years, researchers have found that hurricanes last longer than Barry expected, and precipitated more rainfall – a sign of climate change, said Christina Patricola, researcher at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and co-author of a study that found that climate change wets tropical cyclones. (Tropical cyclones include both hurricanes and tropical storms, which are less rapid relatives of hurricanes.) I've studied the effects of climate change on tropical cyclones because these storms are powered by warm water. The water in the Gulf is 0.5 to 2 degrees warmer. In this basin, a hurricane forms, which also increases the intensity of the hurricane.


Flood risks from all sides: Barry's Triple Whammy in Louisiana. InsideClimate News explains the unfortunate convergence of meteorological influences that are flooding New Orleans and much of Louisiana: "… Climate researchers warn that with global warming trends continuing, sea levels combined with more intense storms and storms Coastal cities like New Orleans are making storm surges and rains more frequent and recovery efforts more expensive. "Water is the biggest risk," said Kevin Trenberth, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, noting that flooding is not just an immediate threat, but also pose a greater health risk as they may spread toxins and disease, according to Jeff Graschel of the National Miss Service's Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center … "


Alaska Chokes on Wildfires as Heat saw Louisiana last d of Hurricane Ida for the last time faced with a high river level and a tropical storm waves are drying up the Arctic. Insights into InsideClimate News' Trends: "… Global warming has thawed the tundra and dried up large parts of the northern boreal forests, and it has also accelerated, according to Brian Brettschneider, a climate researcher Following closely the extreme weather in Alaska and the Arctic, the International Arctic Research Center has seen more thunderstorms with lightning that triggered many Alaskan fires this year, with forest fires so far blasting more than 1.2 million acres in Alaska this year which makes it one of the state's three biggest fires since that date, with a high risk of fire in the coming weeks, as several studies and ongoing satellite monitoring show fires are firing further north into the Arctic and begin at the beginning of the year, according to the climate models, which have long been believed to be the sea ice is dwindling and ocean and air temperatures are rising … "

Photo credits :" Helicopter teams from the Alaska Army National Guard fought wildfire on July 4, 2019. This state is suffering from heatwaves that have melted sea ice weeks earlier and dried vegetation firing one of Alaska's largest fireballs by that date . "Credit: Spokesman Michael Risinger / National Guard of the US Army.



By 2050, many US cities will have weather like theirs I've never seen, says a new study. National Geographic has the story Here is an excerpt: "… To illustrate their results, the Crowther Lab in Switzerland has created a global data map that combines the future climate of a city together with the current conditions. For example, Minneapolis is more likely to resemble Kansas City in 2050, with the warmest month in Minneapolis in 2050 rising from an average of 80 degrees Fahrenheit to over 90 degrees Fahrenheit. In general, cities in the northern hemisphere have cities with a climate of more than 950 kilometers to their south today, he said …. Changes in tropical cities will be less in terms of temperature increases, but will be from more extreme extreme precipitation events and the severity and intensity of drought dominates. "The fate of large tropical cities remains uncertain, as many of them will experience unprecedented climatic conditions," concludes the study. .. "


Changes for Major Cities: Climate Nexus has links and headlines:" Washington, DC will feel like Nashville, London will be mild like Barcelona, ​​and New York's summer will be like Virginia Beach, as eight out of ten major cities in the world will experience significant temperature shifts by 2050, new research shows. A study published in the journal PLOS ONE on Wednesday examined more than 500 cities and adjusted their projected future temperatures to current conditions in other major cities by 2050. The study also found that one-fifth of the cities surveyed, including Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta and Singapore, will have unprecedented climatic conditions that are not consistent with today's . [TheGuardianCNNNationalGeographicThomsonReutersFoundation)

File image : AP.


Even Republicans Know That Climate Change Is Taking Place That is the debate we need Let's talk about politics, not about established science The observer has the item, here's an excerpt: "… Three years ago, only 49 percent of Republicans believed in climate change. Laut einer Umfrage von Monmouth tun dies jetzt 64 Prozent der Befragten in der GOP. National glauben mehr als drei Viertel der Amerikaner, dass sich der Klimawandel vollzieht, und diese Zahlen sind unter Demokraten und Unabhängigen in den letzten drei Jahren gestiegen. Und dies ist kein geografisches Problem, bei dem nur blaue Staaten es kaufen. Laut dieser Monmouth-Umfrage beobachten die Küstenbewohner (79 Prozent) den Klimawandel genauso wahrscheinlich wie die Küstenbewohner (77 Prozent). .. "


Intelligence Aid, Blocked From Submitting Written Zeugnis zum Klimawandel tritt aus dem US-Außenministerium zurück Hier ist ein Update der Washington Post: Ein Geheimdienstmitarbeiter des US-Außenministeriums, der vom Weißen Haus daran gehindert wurde, im letzten Monat ein schriftliches Kongresszeugnis zum Klimawandel vorzulegen, tritt zurück sein Beitrag. Rod Schoonover, der im Büro für Geografie und globale Fragen des Bureau of Intelligence and Research tätig war, sprach am 5. Juni vor dem House Intelligence Committee über die Sicherheitsrisiken, denen die USA aufgrund des Klimawandels ausgesetzt sind. Aber die Beamten des Weißen Hauses ließen ihn nicht die schriftliche Erklärung des Büros einreichen, dass die Auswirkungen auf das Klima "möglicherweise katastrophal" sein könnten, nachdem sich das Außenministerium geweigert hatte, Verweise auf wissenschaftliche Erkenntnisse des Bundes zum Klimawandel zu streichen. .. "

Bildnachweis : " Rod Schoonover, ein Geheimdienstmitarbeiter im State Department, spricht bei einer Anhörung des House Intelligence Committee im Juni ." (Andrew Harnik / AP).

Ältere Post

              Zurück in die 90er bis Sonntag – Hurrikanwarnungen für "Barry"

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