The zloty has depreciated in the last few days. On Thursday afternoon, the euro was over PLN 0.04 more expensive than on Wednesday. These are the weakest ratings since mid-May. According to Konrad Białas, chief economist at DM TMS Brokers, the prospects for the next few days are not the best either.
It was exceeded on Tuesday psychological limit of PLN 4.50 per euro. On Thursday around 4.30 p.m. you had to pay 5-6 Groszy more for one Euro.
As in the last few days, the zloty depreciated against the dollar, the Swiss franc and the pound on Thursday.
“The strengthening of the dollar is not cheap”
– The coming days will probably not be too happy for the zloty. However, this forecast is not supported by fundamental issues related to the local currency or political issues and possible government restructuring. The zloty is not benefiting from the strengthening of the dollar and the general tendency to reduce the risk in the currency market – said Konrad Białas of TMS Brokers.
He added that “the withdrawal from risk is not just for the Zloty or CEE region, it is a global trend”.
– It has to do with the current budgetary position in the United States and the uncertainty about the results of the US presidential election – he said.
According to the economist, in current conditions, investors are reducing risk wherever they can.
– It is difficult to choose a place where the EUR / PLN exchange rate will stop in the coming days. Technically, it’s at the 4.57-4.58 level. Basically, it seems that the zloty should be stronger, but until the situation in the US calms down, the fundamentals don’t matter – he said.
US elections have an impact on the markets
Dr. XTB’s Przemysław Kwiecień also noted a significant strengthening of the dollar and pointed to the role of “speculative capital” in this context. – There is also deterioration in pandemic statistics and the risk of new restrictions, as well as macroeconomic data that is losing some momentum – he stressed.
In his opinion, “the election thread has not yet been played strongly by the markets.” – There was an assumption that (US President Donald – ed.) Trump would do whatever it takes to ensure that the atmosphere was good by then, and this has been partially confirmed as no specific action was taken against China. But investors might be concerned about something else – the chaos that could fall after November 3, April said.
“The polls give Joe Biden an edge, but it’s not much and if Trump loses easily he could challenge the result and the case would go to the Supreme Court. It is probably the worst-case scenario for the markets,” he stressed.
According to the expert, “the market situation is becoming tense in the face of this turnaround. In addition, as he noted – autumn is only just beginning and with it the risk of a worsening pandemic situation and economic slowdown.” The zloty is not handling this situation well “- he noticed.
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