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Poll in Iowa: Pete Buttigieg takes first place



No other candidate receives double-digit support in the rest of the field. Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar lands at 6% while five candidates score 3% – Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey and Kamala Harris of California, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, Investor Tom Steyer and Businessman Andrew Yang. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has not yet submitted an official bid for 2020, receives 2%. The rest of the field gets 1% or less.

Buttigieg's significant increase is due to a large investment of time and money in Iowa. In recent months, he has built one of the state's largest on-site operations, complemented by a robust advertising campaign and strong public appearances, including a speech at Democratic Party's biggest event of the year earlier this month in Des Moines.

His high profile in Iowa is based on continued support in various demographic groups. With self-identified democrats, he behaves about as well as with independents. He is on a par with previous Caucusgoers, just like first-timers. And its support is almost uniform in cities, suburbs, cities and rural areas.

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The 37-year-old mayor cuts at persons with one Income of more than $ 100,000 (32%) and self-described moderate persons (32%) slightly better off. Its reputation among trade union households (17%) and those who claim to be very liberal (12%) is weaker than its overall average.

Among the candidates who vie for second place in this survey, Sanders has the largest population-to-population differences. His support for those who call themselves very liberal (34%) is nearly 20 points higher than his general reputation. Like Sanders, Warren scores better in this group (32%) than in the overall standings.

Sanders also outperformed younger, likely Caucusgoers, reaching 27% of under-35s, compared to Buttigieg's 20%, Warren's 18%, and Biden's 9%. Meanwhile, Buttigieg (28%) and Biden (27%) even rank among the oldest Caucusgoers – the over 65s – with whom the former vice president led by more than 20 points in September. For Buttigieg, his support among the oldest probable Caucusgoers signifies a significant jump from his 7% in September.

Biden's core strength remains the selectivity factor. Of the four candidates tested, the former vice president is most confident in being able to beat Trump. A majority of likely Caucusgoers (52%) say they are almost certain or fairly confident that Biden could win next November, compared with 43% who say they are not very confident or almost certain that they will lose becomes.

Another factor This points to Buttigieg's leading position: the proportion of likely democratic Caucusgoers who say they are their first or second choice or are actively considered is 68%, compared to 55% in September. Warren is just behind with 66%, though this was slightly less than 71% in September, when she led the field with this index.

The Massachusetts Senator is the second choice of 20% of probable Caucusgoers, followed by Buttigieg with 14%. and Sanders and Biden each at 13%. Harris is now the second choice for 7%, after reaching 14% in June – though 36% said they were still actively considering it.

The only candidates besides Buttigieg and Warren, the combination of first and second 50% selections and active considerations, are 58% for Biden (versus 60% for September) and 55% for Sanders (versus 50% in the case of Bids) September). Harris is now 46%, nine points below their September result.

Buttigieg's improved reputation is also attributable to his high positive rating among the likely Caucusgoers – 72% – the best in this area and three points above September. Warren's positive value is 71%, followed by Biden at 64% and Sanders at 61%.

The highest growth candidates in their positive ratings from September onwards were Steyer (plus 10 points to 37%) and Yang (plus seven) to 43%). Booker and Harris both fell by eight points to 52% and 55%, respectively. In Bloomberg, its positive rating fell eight points in March to 19%. This coincides with a sharp increase in its unfavorable rating by 20 points to 58%, with 30% assessing Bloomberg very unfavorably.

The Goldilocks Principle

Whatever is true for porridge, it may be true for politics.

In the case of Buttigieg, 63% of likely Caucusgoers believe his views are correct, the highest of the four candidates tested. Only 7% say their views are too liberal, while 13% consider them too conservative.

Biden is in second place in the "about right" category with 55%, although this was not the case from 70% in March. Like Buttigieg, 7% say his views are too liberal. But 28% say that Biden's views are too conservative.

Almost half of likely Caucusgoers (48%) say Warren's views are about right, compared to 38% who think their views too liberal. A majority of likely Caucusgoers (53%) consider Sander's political views too liberal compared to 44% in March. Only 37% say his views are about right.

This gap within the Democratic Party is also reflected in the likelihood of citizens expressing the way candidates approach political positions. A majority of likely Caucusgoers (52%) would prefer the Democratic candidate to argue for a policy that has a good chance of becoming law even if the changes are not that big. That's 36% who want the candidate to push for big changes, even though they're less likely to make these reforms into law.

As you might expect, the majority of Buttigieg (62%) and Biden (60%) proponents prefer changes that are more likely to be put into effect. The majority of Warren (58%) and Sanders (54%) supporters want big changes, even if they have a chance to become law.

The Argument of Choice

For these Democrats, defeating President Trump remains a priority.

Nearly two-thirds of likely Caucusgoers (63%) say it's more important to them personally that the winner of the Caucus is a candidate with a strong chance of beating Trump. About one third (32%) want a candidate who shares his positions on important topics. While Biden's ability to win next November is more confident, feelings about Warren and Buttigieg are more evenly split on this issue.

For Warren, 46% are almost certain or fairly confident that they will prevail, as well as the proportion that indicates that they are not very confident or almost certain that they will lose. For Buttigieg it is 46% to 43%.

  The difference in eligibility between Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden

This represents a weakness for Sanders With 40% of respondents being almost certain or fairly sure about their chances against Trump, while 53% are not very sure or almost certain they will lose, they are almost certain that he will defeat Trump. Supporters of other contenders are not so rosy. There are 48% for Sanders, 35% for Warren and 27% for Buttigieg pendants. Despite all the strengths of Buttigieg in this poll, the lack of confidence of his own advocates in his chances of defeating Trump could be a warning signal given the importance of Democrat election options.

Commitment & Enthusiasm

With the gatherings now less than three months away, there is evidence that more voters have decided. Among the likely democratic citizens, 30% say they have a first-choice candidate they have chosen. This is an increase of 10 points from September, but leaves much room for preferences that can be postponed until February.

Sanders is the first choice among those who have opted for 28%, followed by Buttigieg with 22%, Biden at 14% and Warren at 12%. In fact, 57% of Sanders advocates support the Senator, while less than 30% of the proponents of Biden, Buttigieg and Warren think they have agreed.

Buttigieg leads under those who could be Convinced with 29%, followed by Warren with 20%, Biden with 16% and Sanders with 10%.

Sander's followers are not only dedicated, they are also the most enthusiastic. A majority of Vermont Senator's supporters (51%) say they are extremely enthusiastic about their choice. This compares to 35% for Warren, 33% for Buttigieg and 25% for Biden.

27% of its proponents state that they are weak or weak for Biden not enthusiastic of your choice. In contrast, 18% are for Sanders, 17% for Buttigieg and 16% for Warren.

It seems that the enthusiasm for democratic assemblies for 2020 is widespread at an early stage, as 63% now say that they are definitely more than likely to promise in February. By comparison, the last Iowa poll, released before the 2008 meetings, found that 53% would definitely attend.

Here, Warren leads the field, and 72% of their supporters definitely state that, compared to 63% for Sanders, 60% for Buttigieg and 59% for Biden. CNN / Des Moines Register / Mediacom Survey was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, between November 8 and 13, using a random sample of 500 likely Democrat caucusgoers who were reached via landline or mobile phones from a live interviewer. Results for the full sample of probable Caucusgoers have an error rate of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.


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