Senator Kamala Harris is the first democratic voters’ choice for Joe Biden’s vice-presidents, according to a new poll submitted to Vox in advance.
The survey, conducted by SurveyUSA and sponsored by FairVote, polled 1,296 democratic and independent voters about seven potential candidates from July 30-31. The survey included Harris, Senator Elizabeth Warren, former White House National Security Advisor, Susan Rice, former Georgia governor candidate Stacey Abrams, Senator Tammy Duckworth, MP Val Demings and MP Karen Bass.
The poll included both a standard poll and a ranked poll to find the candidate with the majority of voters. (The sponsor of the poll, FairVote, is a non-partisan electoral reform group that advocates a ranking system.)
When asked whether they should use a standard poll to choose the Democratic Vice President nomination, 31
In the ranking election, voters were asked to rate several candidates in order of preference. Then, when their votes were counted and no candidate received more than 50 percent of the vote, the candidate with the fewest first choice votes was removed. These votes then went to each voter’s next-ranked election. This process was repeated until a candidate received the majority of the votes.
When the final preferences of both democratic and independent voters were included in the ranking poll, Harris emerged with 54.8 percent support, while Warren had 45.2 percent. (Note that calculating the error rate for ranking votes is more difficult, so there is greater statistical uncertainty about this outcome.)
The ranking survey, a process designed to show which candidates have broader support bases, revealed that Harris and Warren have broader support. Both senators were likely to see a boost in recognizing names, as the two are much better known after their respective presidential elections than the other candidates.
Still, the poll provides insight into voter support – and suggests that Harris, who has criticized her background as a prosecutor, is a popular choice. Biden is expected to announce his running mates later this month. He has reportedly narrowed the list to a smaller pool, which includes Harris, Rice, and Bass. He also faced growing pressure to choose a black woman as vice president amid a nationwide movement to combat racism and police violence and pressure from many Democrats for a more representative ticket.
“Ranking polls give depth and voice to people’s preferences,” said Khalid Pitts, Executive Vice President of FairVote. “We can see which candidates outside of the first election are broadly attractive, which candidates are the most controversial and which supporters of the candidates are the least likely to make a second election. Standard surveys miss these results. “
Go through the results
Ranked choice voting, a reform that has received more support in recent elections, is designed to ensure that a wide range of votes are taken into account. For example, if you consider voters’ second, third, and fourth choices, votes for candidates who do not perform well in a crowded field are not completely “wasted”.
In this case, a ranking vote is more hypothetical, since former Vice President Joe Biden selects the candidate he sees most in line with his candidacy and the message he wants to send, and voters have no direct choice. Biden previously said that he was looking for a running friend who could rule from day one and who was “simpatico” with his approach to the office.
However, the ranking survey shows which vice presidential candidates have greater voter support as it shows who people would prefer if their preferred option were canceled.
For this survey, the results of the ranking selection were calculated as follows: Harris started with 31.9 percent of the voters who voted them first, while Warren started with 26.8 percent and Rice with 16.7 percent. Abrams and Duckworth were approximately 8.9 percent and 8.7 percent associated respectively, while Demings had 3.9 percent and Bass 3.3 percent.
After Bass, Demings, Duckworth, and Abrams’ support was redistributed, Harris lagged 40.1 percent, Warren 37 percent, and Rice 22.9 percent.
Finally, when Rice’s votes were redistributed, Harris saw a larger percentage increase, with 54.8 percent of the vote to Warren’s 45.2 percent.
In the past, the election of the Vice President had little impact on the elections: As Ella Nilsen of Vox wrote, the decision can only affect the end result if the chosen colleague is particularly polarizing.
However, there are factors that make this cycle unique. Biden’s age – he would be the oldest person ever elected president – and questions about whether he would like to serve a second term have put the focus on the election of the vice president.
Ultimately, Harris has the greatest support for democratic voters in both the standard and leaderboard polls, an indication that voters in the poll see them as a consensus choice for the role.
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