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Home / US / Polling Picture comes into focus: Biden leads a 3-way race at the top

Polling Picture comes into focus: Biden leads a 3-way race at the top



New polls released Wednesday show that Joseph R. Biden Jr. had a significant national lead in the Democratic race at the beginning of the intense autumn campaign. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders complete a threesome that appears to have separated from the rest of the primary area.

The new data, showing that Mr. Biden deserves the support of about one in three Democratic voters, are in contrast to a poll that was released on Monday and showed a virtual triple relationship between Mr. Biden, Mrs. Warren, and Mr. Sanders each support about 20 percent. On Wednesday, the director of this survey called these results an outlier.

The recent round of polls suggests that Mr. Biden's national advantage – at this early stage of the campaign – was relatively long lasting throughout the summer. This is partly due to the strong reputation of the former vice-president, the calculation of the profitability of the general elections and the good will of the democratic electorate, even though there are signs of greater volatility for Mr Biden at the outset – choosing presidential primary states.

Sign up for our Politics Newsletter and join in the discussions on the 2020 Presidential Contest on the mood of Democratic voters and the extent to which various controversies have attracted voters' attention , One of the polls released on Wednesday by Quinnipiac University revealed that Mr. Biden is the first choice among 32 percent of Democratic voters and independent voters who are democratic. Ms. Warren came in at 19 percent and Mr. Sanders at 15 percent.

These numbers were close to the numbers found by Quinnipiac at the beginning of the month, with Mr. Biden's score remaining unchanged despite several weeks of testing a series of verbal gaffes.

According to a survey by USA Today and Suffolk University, Mr. Biden was 32 percent, followed by Ms. Warren at 14 percent, and Mr. Sanders at 12 percent.

These figures contrast with a survey by Monmouth University that caught the attention of news media, including the New York Times, earlier this week. It showed that Mr Biden dropped 13 percentage points from June, which equates to 19 percent, and Ms Warren and Mr Sanders each 20 percent. On Wednesday, Patrick Murray, the director of this survey, said in a statement it was clear that the results had deviated from the survey consensus.

"It's very rare, but any pollster who has been in the business for some time now recognizes that outliers are occurring," Murray said. "This seems to be one of those cases."

Since there is no national code, the position of candidates in the pre-select primary states may be far more important than national snapshots. Some surveys this summer have revealed that Mr. Biden's leadership in Iowa and New Hampshire has declined since his start in April, and talks with voters in Iowa have shown signs of a challenge for the leader.

wife. Warren and Mr. Sanders have now established themselves in a row over the rest of the democratic field. No other candidate has consistently achieved double-digit support in recent polls. In the Quinnipiac and Suffolk polls, Senator Kamala Harris of California and Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, were the only candidates with 5 percent or more. More than a dozen Democrats received only 1 percent – or less.

The Quinnipiac survey, conducted from August 21 to 26, and the Suffolk poll conducted from August 20 to 25, showed a sampling error of plus or minus five percentage points among Democratic voters. The survey conducted in Monmouth from 16 to 20 August had an error rate of plus or minus six points. All three were done by phone.

The recent round of polls also suggests that after two rounds of two-day debates earlier this summer, Democratic candidates will only have one presidential debate next month. By Wednesday, to qualify for the September debate, only 10 candidates had done so, meaning that they all fit on the same level as the Democratic National Committee rules.

The committee requires that candidates land 130,000 individual donors and 2% support in at least four qualified surveys to get the debate going.

The billionaire impeachment activist Tom Steyer was about to meet those benchmarks, collect enough donors, and meet the 2 percent requirement in three surveys. However, in both polls released Wednesday morning, he did not reach 2 percent, so he got a poll shortly before the midnight deadline.


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