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Business plans made the fortune of Paulo Guedes



SÃO PAULO – The 69-year-old Paulo Guedes, who came from the country's power center for the past four decades, was a millionaire who opposed or created economic plans created by others.

In January, he will finally have the chance to put into practice his liberal ideas of market liberalization, downsizing and privatization as "super-ministers" of the economy of Jair Bolsonaro.

When he returned to the country in 1978, after receiving his doctorate from the University of Chicago, Guedes endeavored to apply what he had learned. As one of the most brilliant professionals of his generation, he had mastered only a few instruments of macroeconomics.

The country at that time had only a state mentality and little room for ideas.

Contrary to what he had imagined, his fate was the financial market.

"Paulo left Chicago to help.

On leaving the Banco Garantia, which belonged to the now billionaire Jorge Paulo Lemann, Cesar He invited Guedes to become the chief economist of his new venture ̵

1; Pactual DTVM, which later Banco Pactual.

Founded in 1983, the brokerage firm was named after its founding partners: P de Paulo Guedes, A by André Jacurski (who was the executive director of Unibanco) and C by Luiz Cesar Fernandes.There was also a fourth partner, Renato Bromfman,

In a short time Jacurski and Guedes would become a legend of the market, people who lived with them would describe them with a football metaphor, Guedes was the "Zico", the owner of the team and Jacurski, the "Romario", the scorer.

Guedes had the task to ski the investment strategy of the brokerage firm on the basis of certain assessments of the economy Jacurski already used this base to increase its positions in the stock market.

Pactual's first fight was against the Cruzado Plan, which was implemented in the government of Sarney and has frozen prices to stop hyperinflation.

Guedes said that the heterodox bet would not work. because it left "loose ends". It met the authors of the plan – Joao Sayad, Edmar Bacha, Persio Arida and André Lara Resende since the days of the Academy.

Freezing was abandoned on empty supermarket shelves. The crisis was so great that Brazil declared a foreign debt moratorium in 1987. Pactual, which was still a small bank, quadrupled its assets.

The next target was the Collor Plan. Elected in 1989, Fernando Collor de Mello chose Zélia Cardoso as Minister of Economic Affairs and Ibrahim Eris as President of the Central Bank. Guedes was well acquainted with Ibrahim's ideas and told his colleagues that he would not be surprised if he was confiscated.

Jacurski used the bank's capital on securities of exporters whose revenues were outside the country's dollar. When Collor confiscated the savings on 16 March 1990, Pactual's investments were protected.

With the expansion of the bank, Guedes took over the fixed income and hired a young group to help him. A number of second-generation Pactuals came out, including Andre Esteves, now one of the owners of BTG Pactual, and Gilberto Sayão, partner of Vinci Partners.

Relations between Guedes and Esteves – both of a strong temperament – can not be found But the banker has already told friends that the future minister is the "best high-light economist" he knows.

In the Real Plan Guedes returned in 1994 and decided that it would work.

The authors were his former rivals – Arida, Lara Resende and Bacha, but still he did not beg. Guedes understood that it would be necessary to raise interest rates and attract a capital to stabilize the currency.

Jacurski reappeared with this diagnosis. He not only sold dollars but also made a big bet known in the marketplace as "Carrego": lending money, paying interest at 1% to 2% per annum, and buying government bonds in Brazil paying the Selic interest rate [19659002] ] Guedes and Jacurski could not have gotten better. The Selic reached a stratospheric value of 45% and the currency anchor was installed, keeping the real at the level of the dollar. It was the biggest win in the history of Pactual.

Guedes has become rich, but has never wanted to boast. No matter about expensive watches or yachts.

He likes to show his intelligence, intoxicates the audience of his lectures and is also a polemicist who wants to win all the discussions.

The partners split in 1998. Cesar wanted Pactual to go retail and make a frustrated attempt to acquire BCN. Guedes and Jacurski went against it, went and founded JGP Investimentos.

And they started beating.

After the crises in Asia (1997) and Russia (1998), the economist observed the decline in commodities and the reduction of capital flow

At that time, Guedes told the JGP team: Gustavo Franco becomes the presidency of the central bank (he left on January 13, 1999) left, he will not be able to burn reserves to keep the real parity and the dollar. (The dollar went from R $ 1 to R $ 2 two days later), but the impact on the real economy will not be so great.

And he picked up on one of his metaphors: "It's going to be a bomb, but on the seabed."

Jacqueski and his team bought export-bonded bonds and paper tied to the dollar, and they made money again.

But Guedes' path as a financier is not just a win. At the time of the JGP, Pactual had faced an aggravated problem: the economist put a fortune on a highly speculative market – the Bovespa Index Day Trade – and wasted a lot of money

experienced operators, who know it, require this industry Qualities contrary to those of Guedes. They can not fight the market and it takes coldness and humility to reduce wrong positions. And the future minister is the kind that stands for his ideas.

In 2006, Guedes left the JGP and joined a 23-year-old company with Jacurski.

It was a difficult time for Guedes, who would be reunited in 2008 with the founding of BR Investimentos. At that time, he was doing what he does best: predicting trends and using the Internet Real Economy At that time, he repeated another maxim: "Brazil is a reindeer paradise and a nightmare for entrepreneurs."

Guedes had experience in training investors. During his tenure at Pactual, he had bought with Claudio Haddad (formerly Banco Garantia), the Ibmec brand, and the teaching activities of the institute years ago. In 1984, Ibmec pioneered the introduction of MBA courses to Brazil.

At BR Investimentos, Guedes decided to reinvest in training. R $ 360 million was raised to buy companies in the industry and help them accelerate their growth and capitalize on the stock market. The stars of the portfolio were Abril Educação and Anima Educação.

In 2013 Bozano Investimentos was founded by the merger of the managers BR Investimentos, Mercatto and Trapezus. However, Guedes will sell its shares to dominate the Bolsonaro economy.


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