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Predictors increase the chances of a tropical system to 70 percent



The likelihood of a slow, sloppy storm in the Gulf of Mexico becoming a tropical system in the coming days is increasing.

On Wednesday, the storm – moving from the coast of Belize and the Gulf to the north – has been better defined and at 19:15. Predictors increased the chances of formation over the next five days to 70 percent from 60 percent earlier in the day.

Even if no tropical depression or storms emerge, parts of South Florida might already be in danger of breaking rain records monthly


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The Gulf is expected to cause heavy rain over South Florida at the weekend and next week. Source: NOAA Weather Prediction Center

The high-level wind shear and the proximity to the Belize coast are said to better organize the system over the next two days. But as it moves north and approaches the central Gulf on Friday or Saturday, slow progress over warm water could allow the system to evolve, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said. "It's not clear if there's a big gap in the shear that is now helping to prevent this formation," he said.

"The problem with shear forces can weaken in a short time", he said

. Www.moviesfilmonline.com / de / movies / … of – the – nation The National Hurricane Center said at night. Englisch: emagazine.credit-suisse.com/app/art … = 263 & lang = en Environmental conditions are more likely to develop a storm as the storm drifts north. [1965900] Notwithstanding the development locally heavy rainfall in western Cuba is possible] Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast at the weekend, "said the Hurricane Center in the 19:15 update

But where the worst rain from the storm will fall, remains uncertain, predictors expect that South Florida sees heavy rain, but models increasingly agree that the densest plume of feathers could remain close to the coast, said Kottlowski.

In the past month, relentless rain has devastated much of the region, with the South Florida Water Management District plunging nearly eight inches along the coast in Miami-Dade County, and the coast of Broward County has received 12.24 inches, more than three times that Between Monday and Tuesday, Big Pine Key got 4.17 inches.


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South Florida is already wet, and this month some areas receive up to three times average rainfall. Source: South Florida Water Management District

The wet weather stems from a late blast in the north, Kottlowski said. After the cooling of the northeast, the cold air in the upper atmosphere over the southern Gulf of Mexico subsided and weakened the circulation.

"When you create such a pattern, you force deep tropical moisture from the equator," he said. "It's not really normal, but it's not unusual."

The lack of organization also makes the system more difficult to predict and to establish the location of the heaviest rainfall.

"It does not mean it will not rain," he said. "It just means the hardest activity could be off the Florida west coast."

There is another fold: There is a possibility that the system will become a subtropical system resembling a tropical system without a warm center. Such storms can, according to Kottlowski, produce the same amount of wind and rain, but tend to have an elongated shape and produce stronger winds along the outer perimeter.

If it becomes a tropical system – Alberto could be the first named storm – it could arrive a few days before the official start of the hurricane season next Friday. The system is also the first investment of the season. Last year, for the first time, the Hurricane Center began making forecasts for ground-level investments to give the public and emergency managers more time to prepare. The term does not mean that a system could form.

As floods are the leading cause of death associated with tropical systems, forecasters have focused more on rainfall warnings this year. Hurricane Harvey led to more than 80 deaths in Texas last year after achieving unprecedented rainfall, with a new US record in excess of 60 inches.

This year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Weather Forecasting Center is planning more specific rainfall hazard maps to predict levels of risk, although meteorologists are still unable to combine flood risks from rainfall and storm surge.

episode Jenny Staletovich on Twitter @jenstaletovich


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