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Probability in gambling

 

Most readers of NewsBeezer will agree that math helps to win in gambling, but not all regular casino customers bother with a deep study of this complex science.

The average user can play without mathematical formulas, complex calculations and statistics. And it is hardly worth blaming him for laziness or ignorance.

Information on the theoretical return and the superiority of the institution is provided by software developers. The basic strategies for most varieties of blackjack, poker and video poker can be found on the Internet. 

Armed with expert advice, even a person who is infinitely far from mathematics can win in a casino . If we are talking about online gambling, you can, in extreme cases, use cheat sheets.

However, professional players still recommend to understand at least the basic mathematical terms and concepts that are widely used in gambling.

What is the probability?

It is important to understand the basics. Let̵

7;s start with the main term:

Probability – an assessment of the possibility of one or another event.

In other words, this is an attempt to establish how high the chances are that this event will happen.

In probability theory, this indicator is expressed as a number from zero to one:

  • If an event never happens, its probability is zero;
  • If it is guaranteed to happen, its probability is one.

Mathematicians adhere to this method, but ordinary users in ordinary life can use other ways of expressing probability. They are described below.

How to calculate the probability of an event in a gamble?

This task may seem incredibly difficult to an unprepared person, but in simple situations the calculations will not cause difficulties.

The standard formula is as follows:

The probability is equal to the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible options.

Let us analyze it with an elementary example.

You flip a coin while playing an old-fashioned game called ‘heads or tails’. There are two possible outcomes. The positive option is one. Divide one into two and get 0.5 (or 50%). This is the likelihood of victory in this popular gambling game.

Now a slightly more complicated roulette example.

You play by betting on red. The red numbers are eighteen. This is the number of favorable events. There are also eighteen black numbers, but you also lose with zero. Accordingly, the total number of options is thirty-seven. 18/37 = 0.4864.

As you can see, the probability of winning is lower than in the classic toss. The odds are no longer 50:50, but the payout at this rate is 1: 1. Thus, the mathematical superiority of the casino is formed, which allows the institution to remain in the black for a long period.

If you recalculate the probability of winning at any of the European roulette bets, and then compare them with the payout calculation coefficients, you will receive the same indicator of the institution’s advantage in all positions.

How to calculate the probability of events in gambling?

Now, with the help of illustrative examples, let’s figure out how to determine the probability of several events at once. We will calculate them using examples from gambling.

 

Probability in toss

Once again, the good old “eaglet”, better known today as the “eagle or tails”, will come to our aid. We’ll calculate the chances of getting an “eagle” twice in a row.

Important rule:

If you need to calculate the probability of two events, you need to multiply their probability indicators.

In this case, the events are not related to each other. In other words, the probability of each of them is 0.5.

Accordingly, we must ½ multiply by ½, which will give us ¼ (0.25). These are the chances that the coin will fall two times in a row with the same side up.

Roulette probability

Let’s move on to the Queen of Casino. It was this pathos title that the roulette players gave.

Calculating odds is somewhat easier here than in card games. Next, we will build on European roulette with thirty-seven numbers from 0 to 37.

The probability of winning when betting on one number is 1 to 36 (1 out of 37). Payout at this rate is calculated in a ratio of 1 to 35. This shows where the very mathematical advantage of the casino comes from over the client.

The situation is the same with other bets on roulette. Payment calculation coefficients in all cases provide the institution with superiority over the player.

Blackjack probability

Speaking about blackjack, we cannot miss the most important feature of this game:

Each card dealt by a real or virtual dealer changes the player’s chances of winning.

Imagine playing one deck. To collect blackjack, you need an ace. Initially, there are four of them. If one ace comes out, the probability of getting the desired combination is reduced by a quarter. And if all four aces have already been used, there is no chance of becoming the owner of blackjack.

During the game, the cards come out of the shoe constantly. Gameplay speed can be very high. Accordingly, calculating the probability of certain outcomes in blackjack is quite difficult.

In general, probability in blackjack is a very extensive topic devoted to numerous studies, articles, and even books.

 

Probability in slot machines

It is impossible to calculate the probability in slots on your own due to lack of information. For example, you do not know how often icons appear on the reels. You can study the payout table, find out the data on RTP, but nothing more. Next, you need the help of a software developer.

In fairness, it should be said that some providers publish in the public domain information on the frequency of occurrence of symbols, the frequency of formation of combinations and other technical characteristics of slot machines.

Conclusion

Probability theory is applicable in many aspects of gambling. Software developers for online casinos use it when they create new gambling. Professional players need it so much when they work on strategies.

However, do not exaggerate its significance for the average casino visitor. The possibilities of probability theory in casinos are not unlimited. It will not help you beat roulette or a slot machine.

Be realistic. If you want to stay in the black as often as possible, look for games with the minimum advantage of the institution and learn to play them correctly. King Billy will help you with this.

 

Author: Serg Dum

Almost 3 years I am devoted to work as a Chief Content Editor