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Rising oil prices make it difficult for Trump to crack down on Iran



On Wednesday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – urged by Sen. Ted Cruz, R-TX, with the waiver of waivers – appeared that the move was not imminent.

"I think we were clear about our goal of bringing Iran to zero as soon as possible, and we will continue to do so," said Pompeo during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing.

However, the question remains of how much crude oil the Trump government allows to flow into countries such as China and India.

While the Trump government has a policy of "maximum pressure" on Iran, the president says he resigned in eight countries in November to prevent oil prices from rising. The exceptions also provide an opportunity to manage relations with other countries, most of which are against Trump's Iran policy.

Brent and US crude oil up 32% and 40%, respectively, before its next abandonment and the oil market Conditions point to more upside potential.

OPEC oil production dropped to a four-year low in March, and unlike the previous year, the 1

4-nation group ignores Trump's requests to increase production and cut prices. Saudi Arabia's top exporter says it will continue to pump below 10 million barrels a day after reaching a record 11.1 million barrels a day in November.

In the meantime, new threats have surfaced in the major oil producing countries. Venezuela's output fell under pressure from the ongoing political and economic crisis, US sanctions and widespread blackouts in March to a 74-year low. Libya is on the verge of civil war on a large scale and political unrest has unsettled neighboring Algeria.

These and other factors led RBC Capital Markets to raise its Brent target for 2019 to $ 75 a barrel. The investment bank noted that it is relatively easy for buyers from the North Sea and West Africa to find buyers.

"This is the most important indicator to consider as evidence of a gap or bottleneck," RBC analysts said in a research report. They called the trend "a surefire sign that the market is well balanced".

Risk Consultation The Eurasia Group believes that Trump will extend the exemptions for the five countries that have used the exemptions for the import of Iranian crude oil in the past six months. The exemptions are likely to expire for the three countries that did not purchase Iranian crude oil during this period.

That should reduce Iranian crude shipments to about 900,000 bpd over the next six months to 1.1 million bpd.


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