This three-day weekend is not what it used to be for blockbuster movies.
"Solo: A Star Wars Story" opens as the only new Studio Release Memorial Day weekend, a rare event. (The last time was 2008, when "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" made their debut.) This broad arc points to the supposed dominance of the "Star Wars" franchise, a respect that has not been granted to the last three titles , And despite all this homage, Solo is pursuing $ 115 million to $ 140 million for the three-day weekend. In comparison, the first "Star Wars" split-off title "Rogue One" was set at $ 161.6 million in 2016 – and without the weekend weekend.
Estimates before the opening are of course no exact science; Just last weekend, "Deadpool 2" had expected an opening between 1
Memorial Day weekend was the beginning of summer movies. That changed in 2008, when Marvel dominated "Iron Man" on the first weekend in May and has since owned the weekend – and the unofficial start of the summer. This expanded definition of summer offers more space for larger releases, but the value of Memorial Day slots is outdated. (Also: International box offices outperform the domestic market, and there is no analogue holiday in late May in the rest of the world.)
The best fit figures for the Memorial Day weekend are "Pirates of the Caribbean: At the End of the World" ( 2007, $ 186.1 million), "Lost World: Jurassic Park" (1997, $ 180 million) and "X-Men: The Last Stand" (2006, $ 171.8 million). It's been five years that the holiday even brought a four-day sum of $ 125 million.
"Solo" with Alden Ehrenreich as the younger version of Harrison Ford's legendary character and "Atlanta" star Donald Glover is a "Star Wars" standalone that incorporates the original storytelling approach of the Marvel Comic Universe, George Lucas & # 39; third trio of "Star Wars" stories and even the backstory used by Francis Ford Coppola's "The Godfather Part II"
. Star Wars "openings are usually record breakers of one or the other strip.With the release of" Revenge of the Jedi "in 1983, it opened at a then record price of 67 million US dollars (just over 1,000 cinemas, far fewer multiple screenings than usual "The Phantom Menace" was second best in 1999 because Fox wanted long runs and discouraged multiple screens in their deals. "Attack of the Clones" had the fourth best opening weekend of 2002, "Revenge of the Sith" in 2005 the third best.
The first "Star Wars" title under Disney, "The Force Awakens" in 2015, became the best opening ever (a record that, adapted, still holds). "The Last Jedi" Only "Rogue One", the first title outside of the core canon, fell a little short: when he was released, he was # 18 on the all-time list.
However, apart from Attack of the Clones, each Star Wars movie was the biggest hit this year, including Rogue One. This is a dominant achievement that is unlikely to be achieved. (In contrast, Marvel films were the best of their years three years before 2018.)
Still, let's continue with the high-end estimate of $ 140 million for three days. That would take 39th place between the first "Deadpool" and "Matrix Reloaded". That's strong, but it will only make "Star Wars history" if you do not make a box office story on the opening weekend.
Marvel / Disney / Kobal / REX / Shutterstock
With an opening that is between $ 115 million and $ 135 million, "Solo" would be the third or fourth best from 2018 to today; right in the middle of those numbers it would put in front of "Deadpool 2". "Rogue One" stands as # 22 opening of all time; at $ 135 million, Solo would be # 42. At $ 115 million, # 60. Perfectly decent. Just not nearly the usual level of the franchise.
Before anyone concludes that this means that the "Star Wars" series has reached its peak, a number of things must be considered:
– Although "Solo" has the weekend to itself New title, it still comes with "Deadpool 2" on its second weekend and "Avengers: Infinity War" still strong. That's a big competition.
– With sales of $ 1.5 billion in 2018, we were able to reach a saturation level where people would not feel the urgency of seeing another event movie. This was also suggested by "Deadpool 2" and its less than expected opening weekend.
– "Solo" is the fourth "Star Wars" movie in less than two and a half years, and the second in less than six months. Although Marvel (and D.C. Comics) titles are more prevalent, they have a larger catcher of characters and plots. Theoretically, it is possible that Disney could flood the market.
– Last week's Cannes show (which targets international advertising), the word about the movie came out much earlier. The reviews were released more than two weeks before the opening of the film, and the consensus response is barely positive (63 points on Metacritic). The level of the last mystery has been reduced, along with the general excitement.
– "Solo" comes with controversy after original director Phil Lord and Christopher Miller were released during filming and replaced by veteran Ron Howard. The bottom line is crucial, but such an event can keep the audience waiting.
After this weekend, Marvel is allowed to keep his crown as the largest film universe.
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