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Home / Science / Study determines economic impact of melting Arctic permafrost at $ 70 trillion!

Study determines economic impact of melting Arctic permafrost at $ 70 trillion!



24th April 2019 by Steve Hanley


Dmitry Yumashev and a team of researchers from Lancaster University have studied the effects of melting ice sheets in the Arctic and have concluded that the number of ice melts in the Arctic The amount of carbon dioxide and methane from melting permafrost, coupled with additional absorption of solar heat due to a lack of sea ice, which reflects sunlight away from the earth's surface, leads to a rise in global warming by a staggering $ 70 trillion. This is ten times the economic benefit that could result from easier access to Arctic mineral resources and lower shipping costs around the world.

  Carbon Dioxide and Permafrost from the Melt

The study titled " Climate Policy Implications of Nonlinear Waste from Arctic Land Permafrost and Other Cryogenic Elements " was published on April 23 in the journal Nature Communications In the introduction, Yumashev et al. have said

"The Arctic region warms twice as fast as the global average, which compares to a decline in sea ice, snow and glaciers, and permafrost on their average benchmark conditions for the period between 1979 and 2005 Accelerate global warming through various climatic feedbacks

"Carbon released by thawing permafrost into the atmosphere leads to permafrost carbon Feedback (PCF). Sinking sea ice and land snow cover increases sun absorption ption at high latitudes and lead to surface albedos (SAF) feedbacks. Both feedbacks amplify the anthropogenic signal.

Study is First Class

The authors say The Guardian their study was the first to calculate the economic impact of permafrost and reduced albedo – a measure of how much light falls on a surface is reflected without being absorbed – based on the most advanced computer models, which is likely to happen in the Arctic with rising temperatures. It shows how destabilized natural systems aggravate the problem caused by man-made emissions, making the solution more difficult and more expensive.

Here's a look at their methodology. They have reached several points in the Arctic, which is known to be up to three meters deep in the current stocks of frozen organic matter in the soil. These data were routed through the world's most advanced simulation software in the US and the UK Met Office to predict how much gas will be released at different levels of warming. They then applied earlier economic impact models to assess the likely costs.

A lack of urgency remains

"It is daunting that we have this in front of us," says Yumashev. "Even at 1.5 ° C to 2 ° C, the effects and costs of thawing permafrost arise. However, they are significantly lower for these scenarios compared to business as usual. We have the technology and policy tools to limit warming, but we are not moving fast enough. "It is precisely this urgency that is what the protesters of the Extinction Rebellion, Greta Thunberg, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders, are talking about.

If good news can be found in this study, the effects of melting permafrost and lack of sea ice are expected to be somewhat lower than in previous projections. "We still have a time bomb, but it may not be as big as previously thought," says Yumashev. But that is no reason for complacency. Even at the lower end, the damage is enormous, the study is fraught with uncertainty and the cost of some other potential tipping points still needs to be calculated.

Donald Trump, the greatest narcissist in history, says he will not do it Spend trillions of dollars to protect himself from the effects of something that is the result of junk science – as if he's a penny of his Would spend wealth to help someone but himself. But if those researchers are right, the economic burden of climate change will ultimately amount to hundreds of billions of dollars. Preventing prevention could save a lot of money in the future, but not the possible reduction in the suffering and loss of people emanating from a dramatically warmer planet.

The studies are piling up, but most countries are still pursuing a normal business and risking the existence of humanity and all living things on Earth to maintain the hegemony of fossil fuels. If, after the death of humankind, there is only too short a time on earth, the species-living species that will appear on Earth in a few million years, will flinch and look to William Shakespeare to explain the madness that leads to our death. "Lord, what fools are these mortals," wrote the bard.


Tags: Arctic, Carbon Dioxide, Cost of Climate Change, Arctic Ice Melt, Permafrost


About the Author

Steve Hanley Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from home on Rhode Island and elsewhere otherwise the singularity can lead him. His motto is: "Life is not measured by how many breaths we take, but by the number of moments that take our breath away!" You can post it on Google + and on Twitter .




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