Automation is already here. Robots helped build your car and pack your latest online order. A chatbot can help you identify your credit card balance. A computer program may scan and process your CV when you apply for a job.
What will work in America look like for a decade in the first place? A team of economists at the McKinsey Global Institute set off to produce a new report for Thursday.
The study finds that automation is widening the gap between urban and rural areas and dramatically affecting people who did not attend college, or has not finished high school. It also predicts some jobs that are geared towards massive growth or are sufficient to offset displaced jobs.
Here are some key findings from McKinsey's prognosis.
Most jobs will change; Some will decrease.
"Intelligent machines will become more prevalent in every business and all our jobs will change," said Susan Lund, co-author of the report. Nearly 40% of jobs in the US are jobs that are expected to shrink by 2030, albeit not necessarily disappear, researchers said.
According to McKinsey, office support, with nearly 21 million employees, is by far the most prevalent US employment at risk of losing jobs to digital services. Food service is another heavily affected category as hotel, stand-up and other kitchens automate the work of cooks, dishwashers and others.
At the same time, "the economy is adding jobs that use new technologies," McKinsey economists wrote. These include software developers and information security specialists – who are constantly in short supply – but also installers of solar modules and wind turbine technicians.
Health care professions – including hearing care professionals and home helpers – will remain in high demand over the next decade due to the age of baby boomers. McKinsey also predicted growth for jobs that promote human creativity or "socio-emotional abilities" or provide personalized service to realms such as interior designers, psychologists, massage therapists, dieticians, and landscape architects.
In some professions, new jobs can make up for the losses, even if jobs are lost. For example, digital assistants could replace ticket agents and clerks who help with leasing, but more workers may be needed to help shoppers in stores or staff distribution centers, McKinsey economists wrote.
Similarly, enough new jobs are created in transportation or after-sales service and sales to make up for the lost .
Employers and municipalities could do more to reconcile workers in declining fields with other compatible low-risk jobs of automation. For example, 900,000 accountants, accountants, and accountants across the country could stop working, but could be retrained to loan officers, claims adjusters, or insurers, according to the McKinsey report.
Automation is likely to further increase the gap between job growth in urban and rural areas.
By 2030, most of the employment growth will occur in just 25 megacities and their peripheral areas, while large parts of the country will create fewer jobs and even lose jobs, the researchers found. This gap has already widened in the last decade, as US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in his remarks on Wednesday.
The 25 megacities (including Chicago, Miami, and Austin) and their suburbs (such as Arlington, Va., And Riverside), Calif.) Are expected to account for more than 60% of net employment growth, while represent only 44% of the population ,
Some other salient features with notable employment growth are:
- fast-growing smaller cities such as Provo, Utah, and Des Moines, Iowa;
- University towns such as Chapel Hill, N.C., and South Bend, Ind .;
- rural communities with booming tourism or oil, mining and other industries such as Aspen, Colorado, or Kauai County, Hawaii;
- and aging communities that attract health and nursing professionals, such as The Villages in Florida or Prescott, Arizona.
Some jobs, such as transportation or food, could be more in demand in growing and well-off aging cities, while at the same time decreasing in areas with poorer and declining populations.
But Americans are not moving as much as they used to. The proportion of Americans who moved to another state has halved between 1990 and 2017, according to the McKinsey report. And when people move, they move to an area with a very similar profile, which means similar employment growth and opportunities.
Moving crisis areas into thriving cities would be a reversal of the current status quo, economists wrote, suggesting that the government and companies could do more to revive declining areas, such as opening offices in more convenient locations and improving broadband access to improve job opportunities in remote locations.
Men may face slightly more displacement than women, and more vulnerable are those without higher education
About two-thirds of workers in the US do not have a college degree, which puts them at greater risk of losing work through new technologies, and researchers found that non-college or high school graduates lost their jobs four times as often due to automation.  " Automation could increase the existing differences in education, income and wealth, "the economists wrote.
Hispanic workers are particularly affected as they face higher early school leaving rates. More than a quarter of Hispanic workers are also working in jobs that could be automated.
Some jobs that do not require a bachelor's degree include site managers, elevator installers and repairers, as well as cost estimators, MRI technicians, and radiologists. The report called for a better system for lifelong training and learning for US workers.
Women currently have more jobs in areas that are expected to increase, such as nurses and nursing assistants. This should better position them for a more automated future and potentially account for 58% of net employment growth by 2030. This implies that the current gender distribution remains the same in all occupations “/>