An alarming study published on Tuesday found that the melting of Arctic permafrost could increase the global cost of climate change by nearly $ 70 trillion, unless measures to reduce CO2 emissions are taken immediately.
"We have the technology and political tools to limit warming but we are not moving fast enough."
-Dmitry Yumashev, Lancaster University
According to the new, in the journal Nature Communications published study, the melting of permafrost, which is caused by the acceleration of warming of the Arctic, would increase the economic impact of nearly $ 70 trillion climate change if the planet is warmed by 3 ° C by 21
Even if measures are taken to limit global warming to 1.5 ° C by the end of the century, research would find that the permafrost smelting process still contributes $ 24.8 trillion to total climate costs.
Dmitry Yumashev of Lancaster University, the study's lead author, said National Geographic that melting permafrost and sea ice are "two known tipping elements in the climate system" that could trigger a cycle of an unstoppable global climate warming.
In an interview with the Guardian Yumashev called the results of his study "daunting," but said that the nations of the world are technologically capable of coping with the crisis.  03] Urgent and political will be urgent.
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"Even at 1.5 ° C to 2 ° C [warming]there are impacts and costs associated with thawing permafrost, but they are in these scenarios in comparison to normal business performance Yumashev said, "We have the technology and political tools to limit warming, but we're not moving fast enough."
Kevin Schaefer of National Snow and Ice The data center in Boulder, Colorado Co-author of the study – repeated Yumashev's warning.
"With climate change, we are carrying out a high-risk experiment where we do not know what's coming," said Schaefer [19459008NationalGeographic. "The most important thing about our study is that the greater the warming, the stronger the feedback and the higher the cost to society."
As reported by National Geographic the Arctic warming costs of $ 25 to $ 70 trillion increase the overall cost of climate change by four to six percent. These are estimated at $ 1,390 trillion by 2300 if the emission reductions are no better than the Paris Agreement. However, current business costs could exceed $ 2,000 trillion.
Yumashev expressed his relief that the economic implications of permafrost melting he predicted were lower than the previous predicted scenario estimates.
But as Yumashev told the Guardian "we still have a time bomb. "