Published on November 14, 2018 |
by Zachary Shahan
14. November 2018 by Zachary
This was possibly the longest I've ever used to create a monthly sales report in the US was also the hardest. We had a strong sense of how Tesla Model 3's production and supply increased in the third quarter, but with the intense push to get Model 3s out of the door into the hands of customers by the end of the quarter, it was difficult to get production in following weeks – much of October.
The problem, which was already startling, was compounded by the fact that on 1 November Elon Musk stated that we should keep in mind that the company produced overseas supplies for the US East Coast and for the US the first half of the quarter. Nice and good for the Model S and the Model X, but what does that mean for the Model 3? Is Tesla already producing a considerable number of models for other markets? The assumption was that this will not start until the first quarter of 2019, but without further insight into consumer demand for the embellishment that Tesla is currently producing, it's hard to know.
Based on evidence from just a handful of Model 3s going abroad and Tesla's introduction of the Model 3 Mid Range, which has probably stimulated a good number of new orders in the US, we assume that the Model 3 in the US and Canada is only sold in the fourth quarter.
All in all, we expect deliveries to have declined in October compared to November – for the free time for the employees and for the rebuilding of the supply pipelines – but we have not concluded a massive reduction
There is much more to note about our estimate, including the survey of Bloomberg and Teslike numbers (and the survey population of Teslike relative to Tes la's customer base ), but we leave the metadiscussion with it and jump into the numbers that come almost exclusively from the car manufacturers themselves. (Side note: Tesla sales trends versus January-October competition have been published in a separate article: "Tesla Model 3 = 18% of luxury sales for small and medium luxury vehicles in the first 10 months of 2018.")
As a prelude, the Tesla Model 3 is estimated to have been the 7th best selling car in the United States in October this month.
If we were a bit more aggressive guessing, the Model 3 would have been # 6. And if we were much more pessimistic, it could have been 8th. It seems unlikely that it was higher than # 6 or lower than # 8, but both are one option.
Considering only small and medium-sized luxury When it comes to car sales, the bar chart looks very different, as the Model 3 absolutely suppresses the competition.
The pie chart follows a better visualization of the impressive 30% share of the Model 3.
To make it fairer, and I find it useful, I have all sales of small and large Middle class cars for each of the automakers in this class combined. The Model 3 was still clearly at the top.
(Note: Jaguar and Alfa Romeo cars are not included here as these automakers do not report sales of models by model, but they would both be near the bottom of the chart.)
With a view to the luxury car sales in total (without ignoring SUV / truck sales), Tesla again took first place. To illustrate, this contest exists between the Model 3 + Model S and of all cars sold by the other luxury car brands in the USA.
BMW and Mercedes-Benz had a good long-term race for first place in this class, but Tesla has now shot right past them. On the basis of our Tesla estimates, Tesla achieved 28% in October, BMW 23% and Mercedes-Benz 20%.
The total sales of the luxury car brands (cars + SUVs and Crossovers), with only three models on the market, Tesla sat in fourth place in October a slightly more aggressive estimate, it would have on the podium brought.
We expect Tesla to show a similar development in November and another blowout month in December. All in all, Q4 could be a tough race for first place on the market. Will Tesla take home the gold, the silver or the bronze?
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About the Author
Zachary Shahan Zach is tryin & # 39; to help society to help itself (and other species). Most of the time he spends here on CleanTechnica as its director and editor-in-chief. He is also the president of Important Media and the director / founder of EV Obsession and Solar Love . Zach is recognized worldwide as an expert in electric vehicles, solar energy and energy storage. He has reported on Cleantech at conferences in India, the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the US and Canada.
Zach has long-term investments in TSLA, FSLR, SPWR, SEDG and ABB. After years of coverage of solar and electric vehicles, he simply has great confidence in these particular companies and feels like a good cleantech company to invest in. He does not offer professional investment advice and does not want to be responsible for losing money, so do not jump to the conclusions.