Published on 4 January 2019 |
by Zachary Shahan
4. January 2019 by Zachary Shahan
The history of the electric car of the year ̵
When they came for the big luxury sedans, I said nothing. When they came to the big luxury SUVs, I said nothing. When they came to the mid-size luxury sedans, I said nothing. When they came for my bread and butter gasmobile, no gas driver was left to say.
As you can see in the next two charts (sales charts for December and for 2018), the Tesla Model 3 is the turn Against all small and medium-sized luxury cars on the market, it is embarrassing … for the gas mobile. One of these cars is not one of them:
In this next chart, note that you can switch from month to month to see how Tesla Model 3's revenue has changed over the year.
As in the past few months, I have combined the sale of all small and medium-sized luxury cars for each brand for the next two charts. I think that's the better way to compare, since Tesla has no small luxury cars on the market and only one in the middle class. In other words, if you want a small Tesla, you have to commit to the mid-size Model 3, and if you want a medium Tesla, you have just that one option again.
The Model 3 still wins – broadly margin – in December for the whole year and actually every month since July.
|car model||December sales||segment share|
|Tesla Model 3 (established)||25,570||32%|
|Mercedes C + CLA + CLS + E-Class  13,549||17%|
|BMW 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 series||10,574||13%|
|Lexus ES + IS + GS + RC||8,506||11%  Audi A3 + A4 + A5 + A6||7.477||9%|
|Infiniti Q50 + Q60 + Q70||4,681||6%|
|Acura TLX + RLX||3,047  4%|
|Buick Cascada + Regal + Lacrosse||2388||3%|
|Volvo 60 + 90||966||1%|
There are several ways to look at all combined data. Let's look at it.
1. First of all, it can be assumed that the Tesla Model 3 is far more competitive – a far more compelling car – than the other small and medium-sized luxury cars on the market.
That would explain why Model 3 had the courage Competition has been rising to a high level since Tesla, even for the whole year even though he did not have a high level of production for much of the year.
2. Another possibility is that over the years Tesla had a demand, all built and delivered within a year. In other words, this argument assumes that Tesla has essentially met all the Model 3 requirements for a year or two – or something like that.
A problem with this thesis is that ~ 75% of sales in the 4th quarter [waren]. not reservations. These were and not the buyers who deposited $ 1,000 for the premature order of a car in 2016 or 2017. This implies that the massive demand in the fourth quarter was not just a backlog for the car.
3. Another possibility is that Model 3 sales were so large because the US $ 7,500 US electric vehicle tax credit would be cut in half for Tesla buyers on January 1, 2019.
While this certainly contributed to some of the 2018 deliveries, I would assume that the vast majority of potential buyers of Model 3 do not even know about the tax credit and do not even know anything about the car. Even well informed, educated people I know seem to know almost nothing about electric vehicles, and especially the Model 3, before I talk to them – and maybe even after I talk to them. 19
The exit tax credit could have stimulated many sales in 2018, but I expect it will drive many sales again in 2019 as many people learn more about it and the car. In addition, Tesla has already lowered its prices by $ 2,000 to help with the loan withdrawal, and will continue to offer cheaper versions of the Model 3 in the coming quarters.
One In all of the above scenarios, there is no emphasis on the role of word of mouth sales and seeing the car on the road for further demand. With ~ 140,000 Model 3 models on US roads today, a huge new section of the population will suddenly learn about the car and be encouraged to buy it. I think that Tesla bears underestimate the impact of this exposure.
At the end of the story is the point that the Tesla Model 3 is by far the safest car in the US auto market and the next two cars. Tesla is behind it too – Model S on # 2 and Model X on # 3 It is also the fastest car in its price range and has the most advanced technology that virtually every car on the market has. In addition, total cost of ownership (TCO) is competitive with much worse models such as the very popular Toyota Camry and Honda Accord due to the low total cost of ownership.
What explains the extremely high turnover explosion of Tesla Model 3 in 2018? Nobody knows the exact formula that has led to ~ 140,000 sales in these 12 months, but we know that millions of consumers still have many reasons to fall in love with the car and put one in the garage or in the parking lot.
Oh yeah, and the $ 35,000 Base 3 is not even on the market, and there's no option to lease a Model 3! With the introduction of these two options, Model 3 will become available to many buyers.