It was another difficult quarter for the launch of [Modell Nr. 3] Tesla Inc. . The factory was shut down at least twice for extensive upgrades, a new production line was hastily stored in a tent in the parking lot, and Tesla's chief executive officer Elon Musk moved from sleeping on the couch to sleeping under the desk. He was even personally dressed in an assembly line, along with a summer intern, Schrauben .
Now is the mad scramble for a self-imposed production deadline – a rate of 5,000 cars per week until the end of June ̵
Find out what to expect.
Missing Results: Bloomberg's Model 3 Tracker
Back in February, Bloomberg introduced an experimental tool to track the launch of Model 3 . The tracker uses VINs to estimate production in real time. The model projects Tesla finished the quarter 27,757 model 3s-or 4,533 a week, just ahead of Musk's goal. Since the production of the model 3 began in July 2017, estimates the Bloomberg tracker that 40 409 of the sedans were made.
Musk himself has suggested that this estimate is too low. An analyst report from Goldman Sachs predicting a quarterly production that is just 43 cars more than the Bloomberg estimate prompted the CEO to send an e-mail to his employees. "They are for a rude awakening," Musk wrote.
The Bloomberg model is inherently slow to reflect sudden production shifts and may have underestimated Tesla's last-minute production surge, which passed into a giant tent outside the factory in Fremont, California. Back in the first quarter, the Bloomberg Model 3 tracker underestimated actual production by less than 5 percent – closer to the Wall Street consensus. The tool does not estimate the total shipments, which can vary at the end of the quarter, depending on the number of vehicles.
Wall Street does not believe Tesla did it
Wall Street also relies on Tesla's quarterly figures. The average of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecasts model 3 deliveries of 26,121 cars for the second quarter. Three analysts also gave estimates for production that averaged 30,167
Most people are watching Tesla's weekly production rate, a mushy number that Musk has set as a quarterly benchmark. Tesla initially targeted a rate of 5,000 a week by the end of 2017, but the company has since retraced the target twice. Only one company has caught the eye with an estimate of weekly production: Evercore ISI predicts that Tesla will reach 4,600 hits in the last week.
The total number of deliveries for the S and X models is estimated at 22,622 units based on an average of six estimates.
One thing that makes this quarter particularly difficult to assess is the upcoming expiration of the US tax credit for electric vehicles. Tesla could slow sales in the US after the end of the quarter to extend its $ 7,500 electric car tax credit per vehicle. The subsidy starts after the quarter in which Tesla will be 200,000. Electric car sold in the US to quit after a full quarter. By reaching this milestone after July 1, Tesla would receive more than $ 400 million in additional tax credits worth three months, rather than one day earlier, after testing Bloomberg for Tesla customers .
In June, Tesla filled the reservation orders in Canada before delivery to a few US customers. There are other measures that Tesla could take, including accelerating overseas deliveries for the Model S and Model X, and stocking cars in restraints, which could drive quarterly sales into the third quarter, prompting Musk to swear that Tesla is finally here becomes profitable.
The Tesla share rallied in the second quarter due to obvious progress in Model 3 production. The stock climbed 31 percent to close at $ 349.93 on Thursday. The market value of Tesla reached $ 59.4 billion – more than its long-time competitors General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co.
Here's a summary of what analysts say about key shipments:
Goldman Sachs, David Tamberrino:
( Sale, Target $ 195)
- "We believe Model 3 deliveries are below consensus."
- "Investors talk about the stock over the 5,000-week run – the production target (since we believe most investors will credit the company to reach this level in the third quarter) toward vehicle profit margins and conversion of model reservations 3 in higher priced vehicles. "
- Predictions Tesla reaches approximately 22,000 model 3 deliveries to customers in the quarter, from Goldman's previous 19,000 estimate, but well below consensus. His production forecast is 28,000, in line with the Bloomberg Tracker.
- Believes that Tesla tracks under its 2018 model S / X forecast of about 100,000 units based on quarter-to-quarter cadence.
Barclays, Brian Johnson
(Underweight, target price $ 210)  "Although we appreciate the steps to increase capacity, we believe the approval requirement for a second general assembly line is 5,000 / week, another indicator of the challenges of the production ramp is. "
Amber, Toni Sacconaghi
(Market Performance, Target Price $ 265)
- Tesla's gross margins in the automotive segment may be overstated, leading to a sharp decline in gross margins in the Services and Other segment.
- Expects Model 3 of 26,000 in the second quarter.
Evercore ISI, Arndt Ellinghorst & George Gallier's  [In-line, Target Price]
- Expects Tesla to deliver 21,800 Model S / X during the quarter and 30,700 Model 3 during Model 3 in the last week a mileage of 4,600 vs. 5,000 delivers. & # 39;
- Comments commented by Panasonic executive that a pick-up in Model 3's production has led to occasional battery shortages.
Guggenheim, Robert Cihra
19659026] (buy, price target $ 430) Consumer Edge, James Albertine Baird, Ben Kallo
(overweight, target price $ 385)
(Outperform, Target Price $ 411)
19659026] (buy, price target $ 430)
Consumer Edge, James Albertine
Baird, Ben Kallo