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Home / Business / Tesla reaches moment of truth in Mad Dash to make 5,000 cars a week

Tesla reaches moment of truth in Mad Dash to make 5,000 cars a week



It was another difficult quarter for the launch of [Modell Nr. 3] Tesla Inc. . The factory was shut down at least twice for extensive upgrades, a new production line was hastily stored in a tent in the parking lot, and Tesla's chief executive officer Elon Musk moved from sleeping on the couch to sleeping under the desk. He was even personally dressed in an assembly line, along with a summer intern, Schrauben .

Now is the mad scramble for a self-imposed production deadline – a rate of 5,000 cars per week until the end of June ̵

1; over. The quarter ends on Saturday and Tesla is expected to report production figures for the last three months before the holidays on July 4th. Tesla has repeatedly missed its own production goals. Now, the investors will find out exactly how many cars Tesla has built, sold and stored, and what kind of weekly price they could eventually reach.

Find out what to expect.

Missing Results: Bloomberg's Model 3 Tracker

Back in February, Bloomberg introduced an experimental tool to track the launch of Model 3 . The tracker uses VINs to estimate production in real time. The model projects Tesla finished the quarter 27,757 model 3s-or 4,533 a week, just ahead of Musk's goal. Since the production of the model 3 began in July 2017, estimates the Bloomberg tracker that 40 409 of the sedans were made.

Musk himself has suggested that this estimate is too low. An analyst report from Goldman Sachs predicting a quarterly production that is just 43 cars more than the Bloomberg estimate prompted the CEO to send an e-mail to his employees. "They are for a rude awakening," Musk wrote.

The Bloomberg model is inherently slow to reflect sudden production shifts and may have underestimated Tesla's last-minute production surge, which passed into a giant tent outside the factory in Fremont, California. Back in the first quarter, the Bloomberg Model 3 tracker underestimated actual production by less than 5 percent – closer to the Wall Street consensus. The tool does not estimate the total shipments, which can vary at the end of the quarter, depending on the number of vehicles.

Wall Street does not believe Tesla did it

Wall Street also relies on Tesla's quarterly figures. The average of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecasts model 3 deliveries of 26,121 cars for the second quarter. Three analysts also gave estimates for production that averaged 30,167

Most people are watching Tesla's weekly production rate, a mushy number that Musk has set as a quarterly benchmark. Tesla initially targeted a rate of 5,000 a week by the end of 2017, but the company has since retraced the target twice. Only one company has caught the eye with an estimate of weekly production: Evercore ISI predicts that Tesla will reach 4,600 hits in the last week.

The total number of deliveries for the S and X models is estimated at 22,622 units based on an average of six estimates.

One thing that makes this quarter particularly difficult to assess is the upcoming expiration of the US tax credit for electric vehicles. Tesla could slow sales in the US after the end of the quarter to extend its $ 7,500 electric car tax credit per vehicle. The subsidy starts after the quarter in which Tesla will be 200,000. Electric car sold in the US to quit after a full quarter. By reaching this milestone after July 1, Tesla would receive more than $ 400 million in additional tax credits worth three months, rather than one day earlier, after testing Bloomberg for Tesla customers .

In June, Tesla filled the reservation orders in Canada before delivery to a few US customers. There are other measures that Tesla could take, including accelerating overseas deliveries for the Model S and Model X, and stocking cars in restraints, which could drive quarterly sales into the third quarter, prompting Musk to swear that Tesla is finally here becomes profitable.

The Tesla share rallied in the second quarter due to obvious progress in Model 3 production. The stock climbed 31 percent to close at $ 349.93 on Thursday. The market value of Tesla reached $ 59.4 billion – more than its long-time competitors General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co.

Here's a summary of what analysts say about key shipments:

Goldman Sachs, David Tamberrino:
(
Sale, Target $ 195)

Barclays, Brian Johnson
(Underweight, target price $ 210) [19659020] "Although we appreciate the steps to increase capacity, we believe the approval requirement for a second general assembly line is 5,000 / week, another indicator of the challenges of the production ramp is. "

  • "On the way to the 10,000 model 3 / week, a major issue is the paint shop.The paint shop must have added capacity to handle 10,000 model 3 / week in addition to 2,000 S / X per week."
  • Amber, Toni Sacconaghi
    (Market Performance, Target Price $ 265)

    • Tesla's gross margins in the automotive segment may be overstated, leading to a sharp decline in gross margins in the Services and Other segment.
    • Expects Model 3 of 26,000 in the second quarter.

    Evercore ISI, Arndt Ellinghorst & George Gallier's [19659026] [In-line, Target Price]

    • Expects Tesla to deliver 21,800 Model S / X during the quarter and 30,700 Model 3 during Model 3 in the last week a mileage of 4,600 vs. 5,000 delivers. & # 39;
    • Comments commented by Panasonic executive that a pick-up in Model 3's production has led to occasional battery shortages.

    Guggenheim, Robert Cihra

    19659026] (buy, price target $ 430)

    • Tesla still sees "losses to gains in the second half of 2018" and the prospect of a profitable Tesla building a "significantly more positive stock-narrative".
    • "Tesla produced 35,000 Model 3 and delivered 29,000, from just over 8,000 in the first quarter and 2,000 in the fourth quarter." While we are progressing 6 months later than expected, we continue to estimate that 5,000 / week bogey then the G In the first half of 2018, Tesla's overall model will shift from substantial cash burn to profitability as the Volume 3 volumes generate large revenue. "Margin and free cash flow stand out against the large fixed cost structure Tesla has built.

    Consumer Edge, James Albertine
    (overweight, target price $ 385)

    • "The production of the Model 3 is still the main driver of upside potential to expectations and stock in 2018."
    • "We visited Gigafactory in May, where we learned that Tesla is producing 5,000 units per week on model 3 by the second quarter of the quarter. Investors do not think management could reach us before our visit.
    • Second quarter model 3 estimates are estimated at 25,000 units.

    Baird, Ben Kallo
    (Outperform, Target Price $ 411)

    • "We Expect The Focus is on the production rate of Model 3 and the entire production of Model 3 in June, in that order, and believe that the stock could yield as Tesla approaches the production target of 5,000 / week. "
    • " We believe that TSLA can deliver about 25,000 vehicles. "
    • " Consensus estimates for second quarter deliveries may be too high, especially given the assumption that due to the ramp during the quarter, there could be a larger than normal delta between production and deliveries. "


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