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Tesla: The Last Countdown – Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA)



We are in the final week of the first quarter of 2019, and for Tesla (TSLA), that means it's a hell of an onslaught on the target. With the sale of all three models considered very soft in the first two months of the period, the company is doing its utmost to reach the third quarter of the quarter. Today, I look at where the current estimates are and try to see where the company is going in the next few weeks.

It was estimated that there were about 3,700 Model 3 shipments in Europe in February, along with the three countries listed below represent about 39% of these shipments a month. Here is what we have for March data. The data comes as always from the Tesla Motors Club, teslastats.no and eu-evs:

  • Spain (until 3/22): 24 S / X in March versus 50 units in December 2018 and 71 units in March 2018. [19659004] Norway (until 24.03.): 339 S / X in March versus 1,647 units in December 2018 and 1,410 units in March 2018.
  • Netherlands (until 23/03): 8 S / X in March versus 2,210 units in December 2018 and 871 units in March 2018.
  • Spain: 251 units of the Model 3.
  • Norway: 3,137 units of the Model 3.
  • Netherlands: 554 units of the Model 3.

If we project the same interest rates as in the February for these three countries so far means just over 10,000 units for the whole of Europe in March. With most estimates estimated at about 20,000 units on the continent in the first quarter, it seems Tesla has a lot to do in these last few days to get there. The S / X model will see a sharp decline year on year, but how much is the question. The other thing we have data for is the Model 3 mix in Norway. For the first 1,000 units, almost 40% was the performance version. Since then, it has been almost all long range, as the cumulative table below shows.



The difficult part of Tesla's investigation is that the company's strategy is changing almost daily. This quarter alone, the referral program was canceled and then returned, the free charge was abolished and returned, and prices for all three models have changed so often that it's difficult to count the number of changes. The recent price increase did not turn out to be what it intended to do, so what's the second-quarter management?

We will probably see a cheaper model 3 in Europe and maybe in China, but will that be the case? a middle-class version, a standard model series or a price reduction for current models? Nobody seems to really know, and I'm not even sure that many of Tesla know what's really going on. Perhaps we could even see the company opening the European order book for cheaper cars this week in Europe and China to get some deposits before the end of the quarter to make the bottom line look a little better.

In the first quarter of worldwide Model 3 deliveries, estimates for deliveries are everywhere. I've heard somewhere between 40,000 and 70,000 units of the Model 3, another 15,000 to 20,000 S / X units. Tesla led to a sequential increase in Model 3 production of around 61,400 in Q4 and also said deliveries would be 10,000 lower. Due to the extensive VIN registrations during the quarter, the Bloomberg model for Q1 has projected around 80,000 production units, so it will be interesting to see if Tesla reaches this area.



( Source: Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker, seen here)

We will also find out in the coming weeks what is happening on the legal front of Elon Musk as SEC continues his contempt for his tweets. It still surprises me that Elon Musk and his legal team are arguing over his explanation of the production conference call for Model 3 this year, as he and his CFO answered a question about deliveries when addressing these specific numbers. Of course, since there were at least six different guidance points this year, nobody knows who is official at the time.

In the end it is time for Tesla to make a final push as Q1 comes to an end. There are definitely questions about demand after the US tax credit halved and the sale of Model 3 began in Europe and China, with the latter still showing potential deliveries from March onwards in March. As the company has undergone several strategy changes in recent months, it will be interesting to see the final figures. What are your production and delivery forecasts for the quarter? I look forward to your comments below and I will add my final assessments as soon as the period ends.

Disclosure: I / we have no positions in the above stocks and no plans to take positions within the next few positions 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinion. I can not get any compensation for it (except from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with a company whose shares are mentioned in this article.

Supplementary details: Additional information from the author: Investors are always reminded that investors should always make their own due diligence before investing directly or indirectly in this article. Investors should also consider consulting with a broker or financial adviser before making investment decisions. Any material in this article should be considered as general information rather than a formal investment recommendation.


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