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Tesla: The Real Indicator Of Demand – Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA)



Google Trends and Alexa are useful tools in many instances with many applications with regard to stock analysis. However, in Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) case, we believe that it is quite unreliable. Tesla's website

Problem # 1: Anyone can use Google or visit Tesla's website

In this article, we want to see the limitations of common "demand indicators" like Google Trends or Alexa used by Tesla investors. If you think about it, all of Tesla's products are unaffordable for the majority of people in the country. Tesla.

Pretty much anyone from anywhere can do a Google search, and google Tesla and wishes s / he could buy one day a Tesla Model 3 Elton Musk's argument that demand is "extraordinary".

The demand for – the demand for Model 3 is insanely high. The inhibitor is affordability. It's just like people literally do not have the money to buy the car. It's nothing to do with desire. They just do not have enough money in their bank account.

Tesla Q3 earnings call

So our first point is that Google search and Alexa data is extremely unlikely to be correlated to model 355-plus car is quite inconclusive.

Furthermore, as more people receive Model 3s, the owners of Model 3 wants to make more Google search or visit the Tesla website. This distorts the data significantly and artificially inflates it as more people become Tesla owners. Tesla displayed recently.

Issue # 2: Google Trends does not correlate to demand for most other companies

When you look at similar luxury automotive companies, it's quite clear Google trends data does not even correlate to revenues in any way.

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Data by YCharts



Google Trends

Search interest for Ferrari has been declining or flat as you can see, yet over $ 4billion.

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Data by YCharts



Google trends

The same goes for BMW, which had more than double search data over many years, […] 19659019] Now one could argue that most of Tesla's sales is online anyway, Google data may be more relevant. However, even for online companies like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Google trends data overall does not correlate with revenue.

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Data by YCharts



Google Trends

Overall, this shows that using search interest to predict demand is a very unreliable proposition for any company, including Tesla.

Misconceptions about the Bloomberg Model 3 tracker

Although some Tesla investors think the Bloomberg Model 3 tracker is a demand indicator, they are not 't true. Recently, there have been numerous reports of Tesla having significant inventory.

Other problems with Alexa's dataset

As for Alexa data, a 90-day dataset is actually very inconclusive. 90 days of data, and its most likely to increase in traffic. As for saying Tesla's is much better than its peers due to its higher web ranking, that's why Tesla's has not been published



Google Trends



How to actually use Google Trends and Alexa data



How to actually use Tesla's high media coverage do you really use search data to research demands? It's best to do it for free or low-priced products, easily accessible

As for Alexa data, we would not use it for the time being any analysis at all, as the information given is too little to use.

How do you actually measure for the model 3? Tesla is making (etc. – cutting prices).

The big picture

Tesla's fundamentals are now the worst they've ever been , The company is not only paying massive amounts of cash, so revenue has slowed and even reversed. Tesla is in a much more precarious liquidity situation despite its recent capital increase.

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Data by YCharts

Takeaway

Even at multi-year lows, Tesla is a dangerous investment. This bubble still has to continue to pop and only halfway to my ultimate price target of $ 0. Caveat Emptor.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha).


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