21st April 2019 by Zachary Shahan
For our hot new CleanTech Talk podcast interview series, I recently sat down with ARK Invest analyst Tasha Keeney to discuss various aspects of autonomous vehicles. Tesla, Tesla and Tesla. Tasha focuses on autonomous cars and 3D printing in her position at ARK Invest.
Tasha and ARK Invest, CEO of Cathie Wood, recently hosted Tesla boss Elon Musk in the studio for their new podcast series. I also brought with them a number of important autonomy topics I'd like to hear more about.
The conversation took about 45 minutes to break it down into manageable sections, splitting it into two episodes. This article covers the second episode, and the first episode was posted here: "Tesla Autopilot, Full Self-Drive, Elon Musk, ARK Invest – CleanTech Talk with Tasha Keeney."
Listen to the second part of the discussion on your Favorites podcast Platform (11 options are linked under the CleanTech Talk banner) or through this embedded SoundCloud player:
You can subscribe to and listen to CleanTech Talk on: Anchor, Apple Podcast / iTunes, Breaker, Google Podcast, Overcast, Pocket, Podbean, Radio Public, SoundCloud, Spotify and Stitcher.
At the beginning of this second part, I noticed the somewhat hidden or undiscussed steps. Although a Tesla Model 3 costs as much as a BMW 3 Series or a Mercedes-Benz C-Class (or 10,000 euros less), it does a lot more computer hardware and software that pays for itself on the street. "A Tesla is the only car on the road that actually improves when it leaves the parking lot. … A traditional automaker has never had control over the entire software stack of all hardware decisions and how they make decisions from other external companies – in terms of the hardware they use. Overcoming that – we think that over the next 10 years many businesses could simply go out of business.
"On the cost side, we've heard that Porsche and Audi have demolished the Model 3 Amazed at how cheap Tesla could make these components. Now that they have released the cheapest version, other automakers should do so – and are probably scared. "
I then discussed Maarten's analysis of the clearly flawed UBS analysis of Tesla Model 3 production costs. This article is a must and helps not only to explain why UBS made the story so wrong, but also how it is that Tesla leads so much in EV and autonomous driving costs. (I've published a follow-up on the history of the UBS analysts on Tesla and GM, which I must recommend.) Tasha went deeper into the hardware side and Tesla's leadership in hardware computing.
We talked a bit about the rating or lack of Tesla's autonomous drive arm, especially when compared to other industry players.
We also discussed how Tesla innovates in manufacturing – both in terms of hardware and software – and how these connections are made to Tesla's strong vertical integration.
Tasha used the potential of other automakers to go bankrupt in the coming years, which brought me back to something I wrote about in mid-March. "Remember that car buying did not break down 100% and GM and Chrysler went bankrupt about ten years ago. Overall, car sales in the US fell by 11.7% from 2007 to 2008. "Considering how many auto sales have dropped at several automakers while Tesla sales have risen, the idea of impending bankruptcy sounds much more realistic. Look at the automaker's sales in January, February and March and think about it.
We have also brought into play the subject of Tesla Model 3, which is similar to the Toyota Camry, the Honda Accord, the Nissan Altima and others cars, a topic that ARK Invest has recently analyzed.
We also discussed turning points, how they arise and why we do not see them coming so often. Tasha used Wright's law to model much of her curves for the decline in technology costs. She also noted that many of the analyzes that are dramatically different (more bearish) than those of ARK Invest are backward-looking analyzes that basically do not take into account future turning points.
At the end of the interview, I asked Tasha a bit about ARK Invest's approach to invest and scout the market. Instead of quarter to quarter, ARK aims for a price return in 5 years. After more than five years, it's hard to see that Tesla is not ahead of the competition and continues to drive in the EV market – as the market gets much bigger.
In the end, Tasha had excellent performances words to go, who stepped back to see a larger picture. They did not focus specifically on Tesla but on the overall growth of AI. "I think we are at a time when we are going through these dramatic changes in AI, and not just vehicles – we believe that could affect any industry . And it's very hard to predict, but if anything, we've seen that it comes much sooner than you expect. "
For much more, listen to the full podcast on the embedded player above or on your Favorites podcast platform.
Again, you can listen to the first part of our conversation on one of these channels: Anchor, Apple Podcast / iTunes, Breaker, Google Podcast, Overcast, Pocket, Podbean, Radio Public, SoundCloud, Spotify, and Stitcher. You can also read a summary here.
You can also listen to my podcast discussion with Ross Gerber (in three parts – one, two, three), and upcoming episodes will be interviews with Galileo Russell of HyperChange TV, Nancy Pfund of DBL Partners, Mark Z. Jacobson of Stanford University and The Solutions Project, Zac of the well-known YouTube channel Now You Know, Tomek Gać of Quriers and Tesla Shuttle and perhaps a special feature with a top Tesla executive. Stay tuned