A roller coaster ride to a downbeat in 2018 is making stock market investors desperate for clarity on the market path and a return to less volatile price swings. It is unclear when they will get one.
The cops, however, hope that progress in US-China trade negotiations, a clearer picture of the US Federal Reserve's policy intentions, corporate earnings and economic data that is expected to remain solid, could eventually give investors confidence To reinvest a weakness in stocks This has shaken important stock indices.
"Some recent assurances about Powell's job [Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome] movement in trade talks and some subsequent further economic evidence that the US is still growing above the trend will merge into one base for the next ongoing rally," said Mark Luschini Chief Investment Strategist at Janney, in an email.
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months for all of these Variables, but we believe they do it in a positive way, "Lushini said.
As equities rallied in December during the day, traders were often hit by the market's sharp swings Volatility was underscored by the week's contract last week, with major indexes plunging more than 2% on Monday to witness the biggest drop in the stock market's history on Christmas Eve, only to roar again when traders on the Wednesday returned to record their biggest value-day gains in years and the biggest profit ever after Christmas, on Thursday a strong rebound due to fierce intraday Losses followed.
Amongst all this, the S & P 500
and Dow Jones Industrial Average
have fallen more than 9% since the beginning of the month and remain low in the correction area, while the Nasdaq Composite
COMP, + 0.08%
is in a bear market, down more than 20% from its all-time high and down 10.2% in December.
"The harsh market has subsided over the psyche of investors and stock strategists," said Scott Wren, senior global strategist for Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
See : Why stock investors fear the historic recovery was just a "bad bear trap".
Nevertheless, stock market bulls maintain robust economic data that fears of a recession are exaggerated. Just a matter of time before stocks bottom out. After all, there was a downtrend in equities in October, as the Fed's relentless tightening by the Fed would bring economic expansion to its knees. Since then, the central bank has moderated its hawkish language, and the data has largely retained.
"You could compare that to a forest fire, it was a fire that was extraordinary, but we do not have Tinder anymore. Given the intensity of this decline, we would say we are nearing a low point. If the market moves down, it will not be much more from here, "said James Solloway, chief strategist for SEI.
Statement : In the Wild Stock Markets of the Stock Market, the Message of Investors Is Absent: The Economy Still Stable
The optimists see the month in January, when the stock market crash comes to a standstill , It may all depend on the fourth-quarter earnings season, which will start towards the middle of the month, possibly returning the market's attention to US corporate earnings and, above all, the outlook for the coming quarters.
"Forecasting will be" crucial, "said Quincy Krosby, chief strategist for markets at Prudential Financial.
Fourth quarter earnings for S & P 500 companies are expected to increase 12.4%, according to FactSet. While this would be a slowdown from an outstanding third quarter, it would still represent the fifth quarter in double-digit growth in the operating income of US companies.
In recent months, however, investors have been uninterested in the worries They would deteriorate as the increase in tax cuts that came into effect at the end of 2017 subsided. However, this should shift the focus away from other companies, such as revenue line growth, looking for evidence of the strength of underlying demand, Krosby said.
Read : That's why the stock market is a "hot mess" – and how January could ease the chaos
January could also be crucial as analysts get more instructions from the Fed. The minutes of the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of December are due on 3 January, while the next meeting on 29-30. January and gives the central bank the opportunity to further refine its message. [19659002NatürlichgibtesfürJanuarauchdieMöglichkeitdieSchmerzenfürBörsenbullenzuverstärkenEineVielzahlströmenderWirtschaftsdatenschwächeralserwarteteGewinneodereinehartnäckigehartgesotteneFedkönntendienachlassendenHoffnungendesMarktesaufeineErholungabkippenbesseresVerständnisdafürobdieübergroßenBewegungenimDezemberaufdasAusdünnendesWeihnachtsgeschäftsoderstrukturellereBedenkenhinsichtlichderGesundheitdesAktienmarkteszurückzuführenwaren
exacerbated by the conditions at the end of the year, "said Jim Vogel, fixed-income strategist for FTN Financial, in a note to a Thursday.
Investors are about to spend another week of holiday closing the markets on New Year's Day. The economic calendar may be sluggish due to a partial government shutdown after the Commerce Department postponed a series of data releases. However, the number of Crunchers in the Labor Department continues to work, which means that on Friday, investors can not do without the important job report for December.
Wall Street expects an increase of 180,000 jobs with unemployment in December to a 49-year low of 3.7%. Employment rose by a modest 155,000 in November.
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