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The calm before the Fed storm? Dow Edge higher at the beginning of the eventful week



The Dow ( INDU ) closed 0.1% or 23 points higher. The S & P 500 ( SPX ) and the Nasdaq Composite ( COMP ) achieved 0.1% and 0.6%.
The day began with downright negative news for equities, the Empire State Manufacturing poll did not live up to expectations and fell back in June. Economists expected expansion in New York manufacturing. Instead, the decline in the business condition index, according to the New York Fed, was the largest in existence.

"This is the worst performance since October 201

6," said Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer, Bleakley Advisory Group. "It's hard to believe that it's all about tariffs and what they mean for business confidence." As a result, investments in the Empire State survey declined and showed that companies are skeptical of investments.

The Fed

The Fed meeting this week on Wednesday is at the center of investor interest. No interest rate changes are expected, but investors will follow Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference for guidance on future action.

Two weeks ago, Powell said the central bank would act appropriately to sustain US economic growth. Markets saw this as an impending rate cut. Expectations for a cut in July are around 86%, according to CME's FedWatch tool, compared to 83% today.

Powell's impending cuts in key rates could add more fuel to this fire, which would likely increase inventory levels. But if he does not say anything about interest rate cuts or if he signals that the Fed keeps interest rates steady, the stock could sell out. In any case, the stocks could be volatile on Wednesday. Maybe we should be grateful for a quiet start to the week.

The Global Trade War

"There is still enormous uncertainty about how and" Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst at Oanda, wrote in a note that the Fed raised interest rates due to the meeting between Trump and Xi The G-20 meeting will be lowered next week. "

President Donald Trump and Chinese Prime Minister Xi Jinping are close to meeting next week on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Japan, Trump said China will face further tariffs immediately if Xi does not come to the summit.

"The trade war between the world's two largest economies has created tremendous uncertainties for both economies and weighed on prospects and forced the Fed to halt the tightening cycle and instead consider easing the conditions." , wrote Erlam.

So far, no end to the US-Chinese commercial dispute seems in sight.

Although the United States made it have reached an agreement with Mexico that India avoided import duties on Mexican goods and introduced long-awaited tariffs on US imports to respond to the steel and aluminum donations that Washington had hit last year.

The 70% retaliation affects 28 products sold to India by the United States, including apples, almonds, lentils and chemical products.

"These retaliatory measures demonstrate the vulnerability of the high-pressure strategy, which is characterized by current US trade policy," said Timme Spakman, economist at ING.

The negotiations with Mexico are not always as easy as they were then, Spakman continued, increasing the risk of tariff escalation.


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