What SCOTUS said on Thursday was essentially when state legislators want to push the boundaries of their own districts and it's not the court's job to stop those members of their congress who use political calculations. The legislator of the state is given this power and he can exercise it at his own discretion.
At first glance, this decision affects both parties equally. After all, both parties have shown in recent decades the willingness to expand their partiality advantage in the process of ten-year line drawing. And the cases in which the court ruled on Thursday involved a Democratic Gerrymander (Maryland) and a Republican Gerrymander (North Carolina).
But seeing through things that hurt both sides alike means missing the forest from the trees. Thanks to the avalanche elections in their favor in 201
Although these harsh figures are frightening, they do not even fully explain why Thursday's decision is so good political news Republican. The decisive fact? In most large populations, where seating gains or losses are expected to occur as a result of population growth or decline over the past decade, Republicans have total control and sufficient majorities to isolate this control, unless a massive landslide by Democrats entering 2020.
Take Texas, which is expected to receive three new congressional seats following the next census because of its population increase outside the charts. Governor Greg Abbott (R) was re-elected in 2018. Both in the State House and in the State Senate, the Republicans have comfortable majorities – although these majorities were slightly reduced by the Democrats in 2018 in the medium term. This means Republicans will be responsible for defining the congressional lines by 2030 – and, thanks to the Supreme Court, they will no longer have the worry of losing a constitutional challenge they have only struggled to achieve their political goals.
Florida, which is expected to occupy two more seats after the 2020 census, is in a similar situation. Governor Ron DeSantis (R) was elected in 2018. Republicans have a 23-17 seat edge in the state senate and a 73-47 edge in the state house. That means – and stop me, if you've heard that before – that Republicans have full control over drawing a map, which greatly enhances their party's political prospects, not just in the 2022 election but until the 2030 census improved.
] Well, there is no question that the Republicans – thanks to the profits they made in 2010 – have already drawn a series of maps that come close to maximizing their political influence. In other words, you've already squeezed a lot of juice from the eating fruit, and it's not clear how much is left.
And there will likely be another boost – according to the ruling of the court – by democrats and electoral reform-types passing laws that take the legislators' control of the borders and delegate those powers to independent / non-partisan / nonpartisan commissions I have to willingly giving up a great deal of political power. And politicians – from both parties – are not big in such matters.
Make no mistake: The decision of the Supreme Court on partisan foreign policy is a massive momentum in electoral politics. It could well help the Republicans regain control of the US House, and if the party wisely plays in the next two years, it could enable them to hold that majority for much of the next decade.