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By Alex Seitz-Wald
Running as President has become a two-year undertaking, and though everyone says they hate him, the candidates are inevitably drawn into the president's primary industrial complex as soon as possible to Iowa and New Hampshire so they will not lag behind.
The calculus that goes into making this decision turns out to be pretty simple and comes down to one thing: money. And a lot of it.
The search for the White House has never been so expensive, and some experienced Democrats expect a candidate to raise $ 10 million to $ 15 million in the first quarter of 2019 and at least $ 50 million to become seriously competitive throughout the year to be when voters actually vote in early 2020.
Trump's reelection campaign and affiliated GOP groups have already raised more than $ 100 million, while the Republican National Committee has raised tens of millions more.
Many potential Democratic candidates have circled January or early February as an ideal startup window on their calendars – early enough to garner impressive amounts of money in the first quarter of the year, without having to run the midterm elections in November.
"I have" in a January 12 announcement, "said Julian Castro, the former Obama Housing secretary who is publicly investigating a presidential campaign, on NBC's" Meet the Press "on Sunday.
" I know I have to make up my mind, and I have to do it by January, "said former Vice President Joe Biden on CNN this year.
" All I could do politically is probably not something I'll do before January, " said Mayor Pete Buttieig of South Bend, Indiana, this month, after announcing that he would not stand for re-election, possibly to compete for the presidency.
Meanwhile, Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Cory Booker of New Jersey and Kamala Harris of California are all quietly preparing for possible early 2019 election campaigns, say, close associates.
This follows roughly the same At the time, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, who began their famous 2008 battleship in late January and early February, respectively.
What's so special about January?
When December comes to an end, no new names have surfaced, though November and December were wide open for taking whatever benefits other schedules may offer, the financial calendar seems to outshine them.
January is likely to be overcrowded as it starts at the beginning of a fiscal quarter, giving the candidates maximum time to raise money before announcing their first fund-raising move at the end of the quarter in March. Extra days will mean more campaign campaigns, dialing calls for dollars, and more e-mail inquiries to basic players, who only spend a few bucks each.
The first donation reports from presidential campaigns to the US Electoral Commission are scrutinized Report cards from media, rivals and opinion leaders, union leaders and elected officials, while deciding whom to support.
A lack of early fundraising strength can be a mortal blow to a candidate as both donors and donors are tall A small glimpse to bet on a successful candidate and drop the alleged losers.
Money is not everything in politics, but it's a lot. And a strong first quarter fundraiser is one of the safest ways to prove viability and strength, not only in the primaries, but also in Trump's general election.
Many candidates run for president if they have little chance of winning. But no one does it when he runs out of money. "We simply did not have the resources to compete in the future," said Rick Santorum of his decision to leave the 2012 Republican race.
Unexpectedly strong fundraising has helped outsiders such as Obama 2008 and Bernie Sanders 2016 have been taken seriously and vault to the forefront of the field.
For the Democrats in 2020, the financial requirements will be even higher and the need to raise funds becomes more urgent, as large, expensive states like California and Texas are moving their primaries directly to the state of Iowa circles and the primaries in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. This makes California and Texas more important and creates incentives for candidates to invest more and earlier than they have in recent years.
The Democratic National Committee has also postponed its national convention and will start debating in June 2019.
"It will be very dense," said Mayor of Los Angeles, Eric Garcetti, considering a bid for 2020 about the main process at a Bloomberg event this month. "I think there will be a different dynamic this time."