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The ECB will revive the economy to shore up the troubled economy



The European Central Bank will announce new stimulus measures on Thursday to support the troubled Eurozone economy, but its exact moves are anything but safe and a decision that is putting markets under pressure and driving up borrowing costs.

With others The main central banks are loosening monetary policy, Germany is threatening recession and inflation expectations are falling. ECB President Mario Draghi has pledged more support and brought all remaining instruments of the bank into play.

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9659004] Draghi, who hands over the leadership of the Central Bank to Christine Lagarde at the end of October, is being pushed back by more conservative members of his Governing Council.

Some policymakers have concerted and publicly opposed more radical incentives Measures, notably the resumption of bond purchases, are referred to as quantitative easing.

Draghi's cautious talk has also made investors' expectations so high that it will be difficult to fully implement them, and the ECB threatens to disappoint. This could cause market rates and the euro exchange rate to rise rather than fall.

"There is great uncertainty about the extent of the expansionary measures that the ECB will take today, and therefore there is great potential for large swings in the euro exchange rates," the Commerzbank strategists wrote in a note to clients.

The single currency has fallen 3.5 percent against the dollar since the ECB signaled monetary policy easing in June, while yields on many eurozone sovereign bonds have been revised to record lows.

While the ECB has a wide range of policy instruments, each one is fraught with complications, from questionable effectiveness to major side effects.

The biggest problems of the Eurozone – a global trade war, Brexit and China's slowdown – are also beyond the control of the central bank, suggesting that stimulus could have limited impact.

Nonetheless, the ECB is expected to cut part of its growth and inflation project. Sources told Reuters that the forecasts predict little more than 1 percent growth both this year and next, with basic and overall inflation would increase only moderately.

The central bank aims for inflation in the eurozone of just under 2 percent, a target that has not reached it since 2013, which is the least controversial, and decision makers will discuss a 10 or 20 basis point reduction.

While this would reduce the short-term cost of corporate bonds, it would immediately weigh on bank profits, as negative interest rates essentially imply a fine of more than 1 trillion worth of excess reserves.

The ECB is likely to relieve banks of part of this tax by introducing a multi-tier deposit rate.

This option would give banks an immediate boost, critics say it would be small and would benefit disproportionately from banks in France and Germany.

The ECB is also expected to postpone the timing of a rate hike and provide "reinforced" guidance on interest rates relevant to each move. The ECB announces its interest rate decision at 1145 GMT, followed by Draghi's press conference at 1230 GMT.

QE CLASH?

The most controversial part of the package will be whether bond purchases should resume.

Although this is the ECB's strongest weapon, over half a dozen politicians, including the central bankers of Germany, France, the Netherlands and Austria, expressed skepticism about the need. [19659002] They claim that the bloc is merely slowing down, not recession, and such an instrument should be reserved for real crises, especially as the ECB has already used up much of its firepower in past rounds of incentives

Indeed, key interest rates are up Record lows, and the ECB's balance sheet is more than a third higher than that of the US Federal Reserve, indicating limited scope for further action Englisch: emagazine.credit-suisse.com/app/art … = 157 & lang = en The ECB can hardly avoid keeping up to prevent the euro from appreciating and further dampening inflation I think the Governing Council is less restrained than what it priced in by submitting a less generous asset purchase program ", said Nomura.

Draghi will probably still have the votes if he wants to continue with bond purchases, but opposition to Die grö ten economies of the block could damage the authority of the Bank.

Possible compromises include approving a relatively small bond purchase program without changing pre-determined buy limits to prevent a legal uproar from being caused. Controversy.

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Another matter is that Draghi is leaving on October 31 and some policy makers are less interested in making a long-term commitment that ties the hands of the next president of the bank.

"A compromise solution could be to announce QE but leave the details until later, which would give the Governing Council more time to reach consensus and allow future President Christine Lagarde to launch the program." ", said BNP Paribas economist Luigi Speranza.

(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi, editorial staff of Toby Chopra and Mark Potter)


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