"Last week's message from a booming economy should have shaken the Democratic field, but unfortunately the party collectively seems intent on reconsidering the Mueller report in the hope that there is somehow something there the investigation is not collusion, it's not a hindrance Democrats have to fight for something other than a great economy, rising savings, low unemployment in all sectors of the population, clarity about allies and enemies abroad, and a rebuilding of the military. "
Hewitt here argues what it can go on: It's the economy, stupid. Traditionally, Presidents overseeing strong economies are being re-elected, and those presiding over pending economies have a hard time winning. There is no doubt that the economy is currently booming and as Hewitt argues in the post, it is unlikely that we will be in recession from 2020 onwards.
But Hewitt's play also takes a number of freedoms to draw its conclusions, ignoring some of the recent electoral stories, as well as the uncertainty of the position Trump currently holds in our policies. I have listed some of the biggest ones here.
(Nota bene: Hewitt and I are friendly and I occasionally see him in his radio show.)
Presidential elections are not really being blown these days
At this moment we are simply not politically constructed to bring any president near to victory. And this is, before you remember, that Trump's popular election deficit to Hillary Clinton in 2016 – nearly 3 million votes – is the biggest in American history for a victorious presidential candidate.
. 2 Trump's approval ratings remain bleak
This is profoundly untypical – and suggests that while voters believe the economy is doing well, they simply do not give Trump the credit that they could count on giving another president. Or that if they give Trump some credit for the economy, other things are more important to them when they consider whether Trump is doing a good job.
. 3 Trump's position in key states is weak
Trump won the White House largely because of three states: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. The Midwestern Democratic State population blushed and gave it the leeway that few, including Trump himself, saw in the electoral card. While Trump could win the White House in 2020 without this or at least two states, for him it is a much more difficult map.
None of this means that Trump can not or will not win next November. I've told anyone who raises the question that Trump is a trick that will fade in 2020, just because of its weak registration numbers or its powerless way. This is a big mistake. He proved in 2016 that he has an appeal that goes beyond traditional metrics. And I assume that he will maintain this call in some circles from 2020 onwards.
But Hewitt's claim that Trump will go to reelection is equally outlandish. Even without all the data about how divided we are as a country from Trump, the president's numbers, especially in the main Swing states, along with the tightness of his 2016 victory, suggest that the 2020 election will be close.
Maybe very, very close.