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Home / US / The idea that Donald Trump will easily win in 2020 is ridiculous

The idea that Donald Trump will easily win in 2020 is ridiculous



This is the provocative first line of an article in Washington Post by conservative pundit Hugh Hewitt, in which he brings, as you may have guessed, the case of President Donald Trump being easily re-elected.

"Last week's message from a booming economy should have shaken the Democratic field, but unfortunately the party collectively seems intent on reconsidering the Mueller report in the hope that there is somehow something there the investigation is not collusion, it's not a hindrance Democrats have to fight for something other than a great economy, rising savings, low unemployment in all sectors of the population, clarity about allies and enemies abroad, and a rebuilding of the military. "

Hewitt here argues what it can go on: It's the economy, stupid. Traditionally, Presidents overseeing strong economies are being re-elected, and those presiding over pending economies have a hard time winning. There is no doubt that the economy is currently booming and as Hewitt argues in the post, it is unlikely that we will be in recession from 2020 onwards.

But Hewitt's play also takes a number of freedoms to draw its conclusions, ignoring some of the recent electoral stories, as well as the uncertainty of the position Trump currently holds in our policies. I have listed some of the biggest ones here.

(Nota bene: Hewitt and I are friendly and I occasionally see him in his radio show.)

Presidential elections are not really being blown these days

The country is deeply split along the guerrilla lines , And almost no external events influence how people think about their political affiliation. That's why Trump's electoral college in 201
6, where he won 56.9% of the 538 electoral votes, was the 12th lowest percentage in history, according to the New York Times. And why three of the eleven elections that a president won with a lower percentage of electoral votes took place in 1976, 2000 and 2004? In the last five presidential elections, there were on average 311 electoral votes. The five before? The winner had an average of 438 votes.

At this moment we are simply not politically constructed to bring any president near to victory. And this is, before you remember, that Trump's popular election deficit to Hillary Clinton in 2016 – nearly 3 million votes – is the biggest in American history for a victorious presidential candidate.

. 2 Trump's approval ratings remain bleak

The economy, Hewitt notes, has helped much of Trump's presidency. If the past was a prologue, it would mean that the president was very popular. He is not even near. Gallup's last weekly tracking poll confirmed that 45% of the job was done by Trump, while 51% refused. Trump is the first president since Gallup started questioning people about their views on the Commander-in-Chief, who never – not once! – had a job approval rate of 50% or more.

This is profoundly untypical – and suggests that while voters believe the economy is doing well, they simply do not give Trump the credit that they could count on giving another president. Or that if they give Trump some credit for the economy, other things are more important to them when they consider whether Trump is doing a good job.

. 3 Trump's position in key states is weak

Trump won the White House largely because of three states: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. The Midwestern Democratic State population blushed and gave it the leeway that few, including Trump himself, saw in the electoral card. While Trump could win the White House in 2020 without this or at least two states, for him it is a much more difficult map.

And at the moment his approval in all three states looks bad. According to a state-to-state survey published by Gallup, only 42% of respondents in all three states were admitted to the job that Trump completed in late February. In all three cases, a majority of people disapproved of Trump doing his job in the White House.
Which would be fine if Trump seemed to be able to win the federal states he had lost in 2016. In an interview over the weekend, Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale brought four such states – Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and New Hampshire. The problem? Here's the order approval number for Trump – again according to Gallup – in these four states: 39% (Colorado), 38% (New Mexico), 40% (Nevada), and 35% (New Hampshire).

None of this means that Trump can not or will not win next November. I've told anyone who raises the question that Trump is a trick that will fade in 2020, just because of its weak registration numbers or its powerless way. This is a big mistake. He proved in 2016 that he has an appeal that goes beyond traditional metrics. And I assume that he will maintain this call in some circles from 2020 onwards.

But Hewitt's claim that Trump will go to reelection is equally outlandish. Even without all the data about how divided we are as a country from Trump, the president's numbers, especially in the main Swing states, along with the tightness of his 2016 victory, suggest that the 2020 election will be close.

Maybe very, very close.


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