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Home / World / The IMF warns against slowing growth and increasing unrest across the Middle East

The IMF warns against slowing growth and increasing unrest across the Middle East



The slowdown in global growth and growing tensions in trade and geopolitics are creating economic challenges for the countries of the Middle East, according to the latest report by the International Monetary Fund.

"Global developments are affecting the outlook for this year, namely the slowdown in growth, particularly in trade, oil price volatility and global financing conditions in addition to a number of country-specific problems," said Jihad Azour, director the IMF for the Middle East and Central Asia, against CNBC on Sunday.

The Regional Economic Outlook report, published each spring by the IMF Middle East and Central Asia Bureau, highlighted how volatile oil prices are having a negative impact in some countries while others are struggling with growing public debt ,

For oil importing countries where debt levels are high, it is very important to fight them and reduce the deficit so that these countries can reduce their deficit debt burden above GDP, "added Azour.

Energy Costs

The growth for oil exporters is expected to decline slightly from 0.4% in the previous year to 0.6% in 201

9.

The inability of governments and countries to address the issue of unemployment clearly has social discomfort and tensions

Jihad Azour

Director of the Middle East and IMF Central Asia

Slower growth is expected for oil-importing countries in the region, rising from 4.2 percent in 2018 to an estimated 3.6 percent in However, it is expected that this number will recover to 4.2% by 2020 from 2023 to 2023.

"Despite the current price increase, the medium-term constant price projections for oil in the mid-60s corridor, "Azour said.

"Therefore, it is very important for countries to pursue and accelerate their diversification strategies, while maintaining the pace of fiscal adjustment, which will enable them to reduce their dependency on oil revenues," he added. 19659003] In the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, growth of 2.1 percent is expected for 2019, only a slight improvement over 2 percent growth last year.

Increasing social unrest

Social tensions are also a growing problem They highlight the difficult balancing of policy makers between ensuring macro-stability and addressing medium-term growth challenges.

Over the last 18 months, the IMF has compiled the IMF's Indexed Social Unrest Index, which calculates the share of the article. There are important news sources, the key concepts related to protests, demonstrations and other forms of social unrest – and has reached a multi-year high in some countries of the Middle East.

"The inability of governments and countries to solve the unemployment problem has led to social discomfort and tension, especially among young people," Azour said.

According to the IMF, economic factors are often cited as a motive for protests and other forms of social unrest.

"For the future, it is very important to focus on the right reforms that will enable these countries to improve growth and enable the private sector to grow and create jobs," Azour added.

"I think it's a call for action by governments and the private sector to think more about how growth can be promoted."


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