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The love triangle of oil ends with Trump in tears



These days, when talking about the oil market, three names have inevitably cropped up: US President Trumps, Russian President Putin, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.

This even goes so far that some even say that OPEC lost "what control over the oil market has it ever had" and the entire market is controlled by these three, and whatever happens between them would ultimately affect oil prices and impact the market in the future.

This caused me to take a look at the events of the oil market in recent months until the 175th meeting of OPEC in Vienna, where the cartel once again stretched some muscles to shock many, causing oil prices to close upset five percent.

After two days of tense discussions and convictions, OPEC and oil producers, known as OPEC +, finally agreed to cut production by 1

.2 million barrels a day (bpd) on Friday, though Trump has pressured to maintain current levels of production To keep prices low.

Based on the OPEC + announcement, Saudi Arabia will shoulder the bulk of the 800,000 bpd cut, while Russia, which was a major player in the global oil markets, and other non-OPEC producers will be the remainder [19659003] By agreeing on a lower than expected cut, OPEC again managed to surprise the market, a decision that will not please the third musketeer, who is likely already preparing for his next tweet cascade. 19659003] Bin Salman and Trump Scenario

When Trump decided to leave the Iranian nuclear business, his decision was one of the sweetest tunes for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.

Trump claimed to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero, and his best buddy, Salman, was Trump's most important chess piece to succeed in his game against Iran. The young Crown Prince was eager to beat his country's arch rivals and ordered oil production to be increased without hesitation. Oil production in Saudi Arabia soon surpassed the record high of 11 million barrels a day. They even used their strategic resources to show Trump their full support for his plans.

The US president, on the other hand, content with his success in the kingdom, cheered his country's slate drills, which flood the tide with full force. In Trump's world everyone was happy until warnings broke out.

Soon Saudis was operating at full capacity, shale drills were on the clock and the rise of some other oil producers like Iraq and Libya, the market was flooded with oil.

On the other hand, China, India, South Korea and Japan, after being forced to cut their Iranian oil imports, confused their oil imports temporarily while doing their best to persuade the US to sanction them Granted to Iran.

The escalation of the US trade war with China was also reflected in lower demand for oil as an impact on the global economy.

All of the factors mentioned above went hand in hand, and as a result, the oil market was in a state of shock in less than a few months, causing prices to fall sharply. Oil, which traded close to $ 87 at the beginning of October, fell nearly 22 percent to hit $ 60 in November. The oil market panicked over the situation.

In early November, Trump announced the consequences of his actions and announced the decision to allow eight countries to free Iranian oil.

Greece, India, Italy Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey were exempt from US sanctions against the Iranian oil industry.

As much as Trump's decision calmed the market, it shocked the kingdom to the core. Betrayed and played by Trump, Saudi Arabia soon announced its decision to reduce oil production by 1 million barrels a day in December.

Although this was just an expression of anger towards Trump, Saudi's announcement further bolstered oil prices Concerns over higher US oil prices were compounded again

The situation became more tense, causing a mild word war between the two Pages led. However, in Saudis misfortune the incident happened in Khashoggi and turned all tables against the kingdom.

The murder of Jamal Khashoggi becomes a lever for Trump to urge the Crown Prince to withdraw from his position in order to curb his country's oil production. 19659003] Soon after, when Trump came under pressure, Saudis postponed his final decision to the 175th OPEC meeting in Vienna.

Scenario Putin and Bin Salman

Following the Khashoggi incident, the market went into a period of calm, and all eyes were on the 175th OPEC meeting and the G20 Summit, which was to be held in less than a week, and where all the major players were gathered.

Apart from his The G20 summit was important to the Saudi Crown Prince as he first took to the international scene since the Khashoggi incident.

However, the test turned out to be a real blow to the Saudi prince, so striking that the BBC wrote in a report:

"Not only the traditional sacramental taste of MBS is characterized by" a sea of ​​suits ", it seems as though the Saudi Arabian leader was present in the Argentine capital. The reunification of the rulers of the world is "poisonous."

On the day of the G20 summit, film and images became viral through complete isolation of the Saudi at the summit of Buenos Aires.

The Quest for the Perfect In order to take advantage of the situation, Putin saved the isolated crown prince from the unpleasant situation in which he drowned.

A simple "high five" was all to bring the injured prince a wide smile of satisfaction on the lips.

This act of friendship changed everything around the Crown Prince, since, to quote FT, he had managed to "escape diplomatic isolation and even enjoy some kind of international rehabilitation."

A very smart politician, Putin is known for his tactical behavior and the proximity of friends and enemies. Without this seemingly simple act, the OPEC + meeting on Friday would have had a completely different outcome.

Putin took the moment to defeat his powerful rival Trump, pulled the prince into his corner and assured him of his full support to defeated Trump and announced the Kingdom's decision to cut production at the 175th OPEC meeting in Vienna.

During the meeting, however, the deal was suspended for two days. Firstly, because Russia had apparently expected the Saudis to take all cuts alone against their support, and secondly that Iran, whose crude exports had been depleted by US sanctions, rejected the cuts.

But eventually Russia came to see the fact that it would be more beneficial for them to both support Saudis against the US and to satisfy the allies Iran with the results. So they agreed to cooperate in some way with the cartel.

What about Iran

? According to the latest reports from Vienna, Iranian oil minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh announced that the country was free from any cuts.

In addition, the reduction of 1.2 million barrels of oil on world markets would help raise prices and help offset the value of lost barrels in Iran.
As Reuters reported, "a cut in production would also support Iran by raising oil prices, while Washington squeezed the economy of OPEC's third-largest producer."

On the other hand, the US and China are on their way to less strained relations and the eight countries that are sanctioned to continue buying Iranian oil are all factors pointing to a desirab The position of the Iranian oil industry in the future.

In the end, "Trump" should not be forgotten, the heartbroken musketeer does not seem to be sitting on his thumb while his golden prince breaks out happily with his Russian nemesis.

We should wait and see what Trump will do to lure MBS back. Does the Khashoggi case still work? or has the prince outstripped the kahshoggi shadow at the G20 summit?


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