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Home / Business / The manufacturing industry is shrinking. Analysts blame Trump's trade war.

The manufacturing industry is shrinking. Analysts blame Trump's trade war.



According to new polls, several Americans not only support the impeachment of President Donald Trump, but also his removal . In the meantime, Trump's approval rate has reached an all-time low in the face of a rapidly expanding power abuse scandal .

Trump's most disturbing poll, however, has nothing to do with impeachment or his approval rating. [19659003] Recent figures from the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) survey of manufacturing companies in the country (Purchasing Managers & # 39; Index, PMI) show that manufacturing activity has not shrunk in two consecutive months, but instead That August was the lowest point for the sector since June 2009 ̵

1; a time when the economy was in recession.

As Emily Stewart of Vox explains, recessions do not just happen, it has to be something, that it triggers. However, worries about a slowdown in the economy are never to be welcomed for a president who sets out on an election year. This is particularly true for Trump, who has expressed his ability to revive American manufacturing. And perhaps even worse for Trump is the fact that analysts blame the slide especially at the foot of its trade war. From Investor's Business Daily:

The ISM manufacturing index has fallen unexpectedly lower into the decline and has flagged the weakest US value since the end of the last recession as a global slowdown. The US-China Trade War is increasingly burdening the sector … [19659008] According to data from Tuesday [any number below 50 generally signifies contraction]the factory index of the Institute for Supply Management dropped to 47.8 in September, the lowest level since June 2009. In a Bloomberg Poll, which demanded an increase of 49.1 against August, missed the number of all estimates.

"We are now heading into a recession in the manufacturing industry in the US and globally," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, citing CNBC, referring to Trump's high-volume trade policy.

"There is no end to this slowdown in sight, the risk of recession is real," added Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, in a note on the ISM adding figures in CNBC's play.

In another bad omen, the Dow fell almost 300 points on Tuesday after the release of the ISM number.

Trump has made manufacturing a core element of his political identity.

Both During his 2016 campaign and since his inauguration Trump has put much political capital into the revival of US manufacturing.

In fact, just over two years ago, Trump gave the same manufacturing index to a high number of workers, now flashing warning signs.

While Trump's employment growth in the first two-and-a-half years of office was well behind Obama, Trump's manufacturing record was truly impressive. In the first 30 months of Trump's presidency, the number of manufacturing workers increased by more than 300,000 compared to the last 30 months. As Investors Business Daily points out, recent ISM numbers suggest not only that these gains are reversed, but also that more bad news is in sight.

[The ISM] The employment rate has fallen to its lowest level since January 2016. This is a worrying sign of a job Friday's report, which expects private wage growth to remain modest.

Trump responded to Tuesday's ISM numbers by stinging one of his favorite targets: US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

But the Federal Reserve can only do so much to fuel growth in a global economy burdened by Trump's trade war-one that China not only harms, but also in major economies that have much to do with China, like Germany, waves.

The Street reports that the US numbers for the month follow "similarly weak levels in Europe and China of September" and the World Trade Organization's warning about the slowdown in growth that was released on Tuesday and the "trade conflicts" and the Role they play in "increasing insecurity," cited.

To put it bluntly, none of this guarantees that we will fall into recession. But if US production continues to shrink this is not a good sign for Trump, both in the short term and towards 2020.

One of Trump's main arguments against impeachment is that it would be ridiculous to sue a president who manages the economy as well as he does.

While Trump insists on taking full credit for a recovery that is in effect during his His predecessor began and lasted His term led to his inheriting a healthy economy, low unemployment rates and a strong stock market. So far, he has not managed to raise his approval rate over the low 40s. The latest production figures show that Trump's economic performance could turn from strength to weakness if he is not previously charged and released from office before November 2020.


The news is moving fast. To stay up to date, follow Aaron Rupar on Twitter and read more about Vox's Politics and Reporting .


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