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Home / US / "The map is different now": Trump blows up the race in 2020

"The map is different now": Trump blows up the race in 2020

For years, presidential campaigns have followed relatively predictable trench fights, and the outcome has been decided in a handful of battleground states

But the era of the hardened election card – 40 out of 50 states voted for the same party from the year 2000 to 2012 – could end [19659:00] ] Story continued below

Interviews with more than two dozen politicians, advisers and activists across the country suggest that between Donald Trump's crossing of the upper Midwest and demographic upheavals Democrats in the South and West will be the field of competing states in the Dramatically transformed by 2020.

Minnesota, which has not elected Republican as president for nearly half a century, is suddenly high on the GOP wish list. Arizona and Georgia, considered as red-state barriers until recent years, are undeniably within Democratic reach.

Democrats deal with speculation about Texas ̵

1; the red citadel of the modern GOP – while Brad Parscale, Trump's 2020 campaign manager, sees Colorado as the target despite three consecutive Republican defeats there.

Then there is the class of states that Trump unleashed in 2016 after three decades of republican futility: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The President has already made an offer to everyone – on Thursday, when Trump arrives in Wilkes-Barre, he'll make his fifth trip to Pennsylvania in less than two years.

"They could have a dozen states – not five or six – but a dozen states that are of great importance on both sides and very competitive on both sides," said Paul Maslin, a Democratic Party top Democrat who led the Time between Los Angeles and Madison divides. Wisconsin

Although the electoral card has shifted over time, Maslin said the number of potential swing states in 2020 "could peak … I think they'll all be pretty much competing"

Democrats have extended early signs of a favorable climate, which they expect in the fall, and into the year 2020. In the Midwest, after muddling Wisconsin's special election victories this year, recent NBC News / Marist polls have brought Trump's approval to Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin at a seemingly fatal level – under 40 percent.

In the south, where Democrats swept the Virginia elections in 2017, Doug Jones dumped an Alabama Senate seat into Democrats for the first time since 1994.
Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said Jones's victory "means we can win everywhere," suggesting that even Texas, who trumped Trump by 9 percentage points, could be contested in 20 20.

"If Beto [O’Rourke] can win Senator Ted Cruz in the US Senate race this year in Texas or really get close," said Dean, "Texas will be in the game."

David Pepper The chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party described electoral prospects for Democrats as "getting better". From the upcoming electoral card, he said, "I think it's wider."

But talks with Democratic leaders show a conflicting party about how to proceed, with divisions between those who have concentrated on traditionally democratic Midwestern states and those who seek to break new ground in more diverse states, of which many in the party believe they can better represent the party's future.

In a general election against Trump, a large field of potential Democratic candidates has already expanded their apertures.

In a Democratic presidential election widely expected to be perceived by contestants in a match with Trump, travels by candidates in states such as Georgia and Arizona have attracted attention, competing with visits to Iowa's early nomination states and New Hampshire. As one candidate, Mayor of Los Angeles, Eric Garcetti, announced last week that he will fundraise in September to raise $ 1 million for democratic parties, he has listed 10 different states as beneficiaries. [196592002] In 2020, former Democratic Governor of New Mexico, Bill Richardson, who ran for President in 2008, said, "This could be a race that ends in Congress, and I think it will go the whole way, because everyone will want to see that candidates go through the whole process, not just who the early taste of the months is. "

For Richardson and other longtime Democrats are the dangers of a The changed presidential card was the night of Trump's victory in 2016 visible.

"I never thought I would live the day a Republican would wear Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania," said Ed Rendell, a former Pennsylvania governor and DNC chairman

In 2020, Rendell said, "We should be in Georgia and in those places, and maybe even in Texas, but I think the first thing we need to do is focus on getting our traditional voters back." Richardson Rendell said: "For us, there is no map on which we can run the electoral college without Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania."

Even in highly democratic, urban coastal states, the desire to select a candidate hangs in the midwest re-anchors strongly over the presidential election campaign. In California, where at least three Democrats are thinking of campaigns – Garcetti, Senator Kamala Harris, and billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer – former Gov. Gray Davis said: "Ideally, our candidate would come from the Midwest and represent values ​​from the Midwest."

"And if we do not have a candidate from the Midwest, our candidate has to settle mainly in the Midwest because I do not care how charismatic, how convincing our candidate is, if we put our trust in the Democratic brand in the middle We can not take over the presidency, "Davis said. Absolutely. "

But as the Democrats prepare to confront Trump in the upper Midwest again, the development of the map is likely to force some tough decisions about which ones States should be targeted. For example, four years after the victory of Barack Obama in Ohio and Iowa, Hillary Clinton lost each of them enough to ask serious questions about their competitiveness at the presidential level: Trump wore Ohio by 9 percentage points and Iowa by almost 10 percentage points. [19659002] Comparing Trump's performance in Iowa with Georgia – which the Democrats lost by less than 6 percentage points – said Harris senior counselor Sean Clegg, "I think it's arguable that Georgia is more in the game than Iowa as a long-term issue. "

" You really look at the places that are demographically growing, "he said," and it's Arizona and Georgia, as well as North Carolina and Florida, that have more potential states in which you can could change the map for the future. "

As in Texas, where the Democrats were supported by O'Rourke's unlikely run on Cruz and the recent gains in the suburbs, the party places a stock for $ 202 in the Performance of Stacey Abrams in the governors race in Georgia. The election of a Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, in North Carolina has helped Democrats improve their fundraising efforts and organize operations in a state where Trump has gained less than 4 percentage points.

"I think there are potential states coming to the south," said Jaime Harrison, vice chairman of the Democratic National Committee and former chairman of the South Carolina State Party. "My theory has always been that the Democratic Party must stop writing off these states."

In a presidential election, Harrison said: "The true key to all of this is how do you engage the African American community … The question is, what can we do as a party, and then in 2020, what can we do? Nominated to feel these people are committed. "

Tom Perez, the DNC chairman, recently said the" mission of the new DNC is to organize everywhere, "and Pepper said the right candidate could be to the Democrats turn regardless of geography.

"I think you can be very good in the Midwest with the right candidates," said Pepper. "And I think, given the demographic changes and changing politics these days, you can … also compete in Arizona, Georgia and some other places."

But many Democrats in the states that have just lost Clinton are angry at their attempt to expand into Arizona and Georgia – the feeling is particularly acute in Wisconsin, where Clinton did not camp at all in the general election. And the party's efforts to capitalize on its more urban Obama coalition of young people, women, non-white voters, and educated college has led many rural democrats to wonder what the costs are in their own states.

In Minnesota, Trump lost only 1.5 percentage points – and where President already presents evidence that he wants to compete aggressively there in 2020, Democrat veteran Rick Nolan complained for the Vice Governor is running, in recent months has been so focused on urban issues that "basically reading between the lines, [it] said: 'Kiss's rural America bye-bye.'"

Partly because of his relatively moderate position in mining in his historic working-class Iron Range – which was tough for Trump – Nolan doubted that activists in his own party would have supported him if he ran again for the future.

He said, "You wonder where the hell your party goes."

Matt Barron, a Massachusetts counselor who had left the Democratic Party last year because of his frustration of rural outreach, mocked, "The Coalition of the Ascendant Argument, this argument that the demographic forces will only take our small surfboards and we will all floating along the big wave … that's great for maybe 2024 or 2028. I do not know if it's good for 2018 or 2020. "

On a recent trip to Nolan's district in northeastern Minnesota, Trump made it clear that his tight loss remained there in memory – and flatly claimed that he would win Minnesota in 2020. [19659002] "I hate to put it that way, but we were so close to winning the state of Minnesota," Trump told a crowd of thousands at a Duluth rally. "And in two and a half years it will be really, really easy, I think."

Matt Schlapp, chairman of the influential American Conservative Union, said he expects Trump to compete not only in Minnesota but in two Western states that he lost in 2016: Colorado and Nevada.

"There is always this game of who can expand the map, and where to play defense, and obviously Trump has thrown all this upside down by winning states that nobody – in the broader context – really expected that he will be successful, "said Schlapp, a former political director of President George W. Bush. "I think the card is different now."

Dean, who unsuccessfully ran for the president in 2004, predicted that the Democrats would reclaim Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2020, with a more difficult road in Wisconsin and North Carolina.

Dean, who called on Democrats to select a candidate younger than 40 or 50 years old, said the real split within the Democratic Party was intergenerational, not geographical. But he suggested that a broader card would only help a younger candidate be "mousy-mouse around" to appeal to narrow sections of the electorate.

"We see it as a zero-sum game," the 69- The old Dean said of his own generation. "They see it as an extra game, and I think we're out here in this country."

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