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Home / US / The Memo: Warren is Biden's most dangerous rival

The Memo: Warren is Biden's most dangerous rival

Sen. Elizabeth Warren Elizabeth Ann Warren Is the movie? The Hunt & # 39; a misfire or a direct hit in our right-left split? Warren Unveils Gun Control Plan To Blame Trump for "Withdrawal Speech" Puts More Fuel Into the Age of Rage. MORE is now the most serious rival to former Vice President Joe Biden Joe BidenDemocrats pounce on Trump in Bidding for the 2020 Democrat Democrat for the Country Voters in Iowa and Unlock Trump's "Darkness" , The Democratic strategist predicts that Biden-Gaffes will not hurt him in the long run for the Democratic nomination for 2020 Iowa has shown Massachusetts Senator second place after Biden. Her appearances on television debates were highly praised. And her fundraising was robust. She raised $ 19 million in the second quarter.

But if Warren is a big candidate that is undoubtedly on an uptrend, there are still significant questions about how to get past Biden, which in most cases continues to lead by a considerable margin surveys.

The former vice president is particularly popular with black voters who are critical to the success of a Democratic primary.

Progressives also have concerns over splitting the left-wing vote between Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders Bernie SandersDemocrats pounce on Trump to campaign for rural voters The Hill's 12 : 30 Report: Trump calls for support for background checks in Congress Democratic senators urge the FDA to take action against drug companies that hid flawed data. MORE [19659003] (I-Vt). Although Warren turns out to be a clear flag bearer on the left in the coming months, Sanders is nowhere to go.

"Progressive voters will eventually have to band together behind Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren so we can win," said left-wing writer and activist Jonathan Tasini. "They can be the candidates if the armed forces are behind one of them. If not, we certainly risk splitting this vote.

Several surveys in recent days have revealed that Warren is passing Sanders, who has not been able to recapture the magic that has made him a tough challenger. Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham ClintonIs the movie? The Hunt & # 39; a misfire or a direct hit in our right-left split? Blaming Trump for "trigger" words brings more fuel into the age of rage. Trump faces the NYT reporter in 2016 over Dayton, El Paso, before supporting Sanders 9 percent. Biden was at the top with 28 percent. Sen. Kamala Harris Kamala Devi Harris Blazing Trump for 'Trigger' Words Puts More Fuel Into the Age of Anger Harris wins important affirmation of Iowa's power couple The Hill's 12:30 Report: Trump calls for Congressional support for background reviews MORE (D-Calif.) Ranked third with 11 percent support.

A national poll by The Economist and YouGov revealed that Warren Biden was 6 points (16 to 22 percent) behind Sanders in third place (13 percent).

Quinnipiac University's second national survey found that Warren was 7 points ahead of Sanders – 21 to 14 percent – despite still outperforming Biden by 11 points.

Democratic strategist Tad Devine, who worked for Sanders in 2016, is out of line with any candidate in the cycle, acknowledging that Warren's achievements in the debates helped her.

But he also claimed that the clarity and power of their pitch on the campaign formed the core of their appeal.

] "It has a very strong message," Devine said, drawing a parallel to how a similar message from Sanders resonated in 2016. That has a lot of weight among Democratic primary voters – and among the general electorate. "

Warren's sense of detail – an early slogan that also applied to their official merchandise: "Warren has a plan for it," was also an asset, as well as their willingness to insist that Democrats have to dream big. [19659005] She delivered one of the most memorable moments of the debates in Detroit late last month when she responded to a centrist criticism of former Rep. John Delaney John Kevin Delaney Democrats pounce on Trump to compete for Land voters. # 39; s Campaign Report: 2020 Democrats question Trump's response to the Democratic candidate's attack on Biden at their own risk MORE (DM "I do not understand why anyone bothers to run for the President of the United States just to talk about what we really can not do and what we should not fight for." [19659005] But if Warren has a strong momentum, she also faces some hurdles.

In the Economist national poll, Biden was more than doubly supported by black voters (33 to 13 percent), while Warren was only one point ahead of white voters (20 to 19 percent).

Quinnipiac's national poll found her to be only 3 points off (30 to 27 percent) but under pressure from black voters (47 to 8 percent).

There was some anecdote evidence that Warren can connect with black voters, especially women, when she personally addresses different crowds. However, this still has to be reflected in concrete results of the surveys.

The struggle for African American support is made even more difficult by the fact that Sanders shows more grounded non-whites than four years ago, and two black senators – Harris and Sen. Cory Booker Cory Anthony BookerBlaming trump for & # 39; trigger & # 39; -words pour more fuel into the age of anger Democrats pounce on Trump's to Trumps & # 39; To decipher the Darkness & # 39; study for 2020 Democrats in Iowa. MORE ] (DN.J.) – are in the running this year.

The question also arises as to whether the social media chatter about the competition gives the impression that the party as a whole is left – and thus more likely to select someone like Warren as a candidate – than it actually is.

Moderate Democrats also vote in the primaries – and poll surveys have shown that they appeal to Biden much more than Warren or Sanders.

In the YouGov poll, Warren Biden cited Democrats as liberal (22 to 18 percent) but outperforming the moderate (10 to 33 percent).

However, a Democratic strategist who asked for anonymity is not in agreement with a 2020 candidate, pointing to another possible problem. Warren will eventually have to prove that she can restrict Biden's support.

"The good news for Warren is that she is rising in the polls and former Sanders voters are approaching her," said the strategist. "The bad news is that it does not come from Biden voters – as long as that stays – and Sanders stays in the race – it's hard to see how she gets over that hump."

Several sources associated with The Hill, however, warned against drawing too much in the race too soon.

Remarkably, there was a general consensus that Warren would win if he won the Caucuses in Iowa – something plausible given the liberal leanness of the Caucusgoers – could rearrange the race in one fell swoop

a very competitive position, "said Devine, recalling how and when Sen. Barack Obama Barack Hussein Obama Harris wins important recognition of Iowa's power pair Why Should Tucker Carlson be attacked? It's part of the left-wing war on the right. Trumponomics is not a flop MORE (D-Ill.) Won the Caucuses in 2008, while Hi llary Clinton in third place landed: "Everything has changed overnight."

Warren is currently in The Hunt. And it's game on.

The memo is a column by Niall Stanage dealing mainly with Donald Trump Donald John Trump. The Accidental Cyber-wisdom of Donald J. Trump Is The Movie? The Hunt & # 39; a misfire or a direct hit in our left-right divide? Warren reveals plan to combat gun violence MORE Presidency.

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