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The political trends that will determine 2019



President Donald Trump, anxious to spurn his most loyal followers who violated his demands for a 2016 boundary wall, digs deep into a partial government shutdown that lasts until the 11th day and has no clear way out. It was an ominous feeling to the holidays in the face of the dark cloud hanging over Trump over special advocate Robert Mueller, whose results could lead the nation on the bitter road to impeachments in the coming year.

The Democratic presidential race began after the Senegade of Elizabeth.

But the president does not have to worry only about Müller. Democrats are days ahead to take control of the House of Representatives and open a new challenge for Trump's presidency ̵

1; Congressional oversight.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 265 points over the upset stomach and closed 2018. Instability, which produced the worst year for a decade's stock, could fuel economic uncertainty that could be significant until the 2020 race.

And as always, there are signs of instability and chaos in the White House, with confusion over the exact location of Trump's border wall and his planned Syrian troop withdrawal, while important vacancies were vacant.

Government is closed to satisfy the base

Trump remained at home over the Christmas period, often largely alone in the White House and New Year break, tweeting among Democrats, but without any real political movement about the closure came off. It often seemed like the goal was just talking about its political base – a trend that is likely to continue throughout the year.

"I'm in the Oval Office, Democrats are coming out of their holidays and giving us the votes necessary for border security, including the wall, and they voted Yes in 2006 and 2013. Another yes, but I'm in office I'll have it built, and fast! "Trump tweeted on Monday afternoon.

It is unclear how Trump wants to get out of the partial closure that has hit hundreds of thousands of federal workers, as the Democrats are unwilling to pay for their border wall.

He could have avoided The overall stalemate had agreed to sign a resolution that had passed the Senate last month and kept the government open at short notice, but had not funded the Wall.

But the president moved back under pressure from the conservatives The House and right-wing media commentators like Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh.

If you climb down now, you risk a similar condemnation and the possibility of weakening support among grassroots voters whose political decision does not depend on them to try and widen their coalition for 2016.

With a weak but stable political position – between 40% and 45% – the President endorses the work he is doing in most polls that this year he has to wage a series of grassroots struggles to keep his political foundation intact hold.

But when the Democrats take over the house, they have little incentive to save the president – at least until there is evidence. His tactics of weakly branding them at border security cause political harm.

Finally, Trump won the election, saying that Mexico and not US taxpayers would pay for the Wall. And he said he was proud to close the government over the wall in an infamous clash between the Oval Offices and the Democratic leaders.

The next step in the saga will take place later in the week when the Democrats put the ball back in the Republican court.

The Democrats-controlled house is expected to vote on six draft editions of the Senate and an emergency resolution to reopen the Homeland Security Department at its current funding stage by 8 February, a Democratic Advisor told CNN on Monday.

Although the temporary measure would maintain the current $ 1.3 billion in border security, Mitch McConnell, GOP Senate Majority Leader, says he will not change any laws until Trump signs.

So both sides are facing a dead end.

The calendar says 2019 – but it's already 2020

Warren took the first leap in the front Democratic pack and gave her a hand A head start on the fundraising race of the first quarter, with the the feasibility of the top contenders is assessed. She will probably soon find the field overcrowded.

The Massachusetts Senator's opening message has highlighted populist economic reasons, emphasizing her modest roots and healthy family background, and accusing billionaires and middle-class attackers.

Warrens Strengths include long crusades against big banks and titans on Wall Street. The Democrats are looking for a candidate who can ease Trump's influence on working-class voters in the industrial midwest in 2020.

"Corruption poisons our democracy," Warren said in a web video shot in her kitchen and then in a side reference to Trump on "Bigotry and Fear."

Experts are already asking if Warren missed her moment, but at the age of 69 she is considered too old at a time when a youthful and ethnic transformation is taking place in the Democratic Party as too white.

Her efforts to defuse Trump's claims to her claims to the Native American heritage The first year of a DNA test was generally considered miserable and harmful to her candidacy by Beltway insiders.

Warren, however, leaps ahead of other rivals, including California Senator Kamala Harris, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and former Vice President President Joe Biden.

The touching democratic race will also give Trump something he longs for, but he loves – a new enemy with whom he can define his own re-election campaign, and a genuine opening up to the campaign trail he is emerging.

The battle for position among the Democrats and how the candidates react to the trump fire will mark the first year of the 2020 campaign.

It's always miller's time

A reminder of where we were before the holiday.

Trump's campaign, transition, founding committee and presidency are actively investigated. So have his business, the Trump organization, and his late charity, the Trump Foundation. The president was arrested indirectly by prosecutors in New York, who were overseen by his own Ministry of Justice to direct criminal attempts to suppress election campaign finance laws.

Predict that Muller's investigations into alleged electoral arrangements with Russia and a possible obstruction of justice by the president would be completed by the end of 2018 turned out to be far beyond the mark.

But every week that passed by the end of last year, Trump brought more bad news and signs that Müller is coming closer to the president after a barrage of legal documents, court orders and convictions, and guilty pleas against close Trump employees.

Questions surround Trump's longtime political adviser Roger Stone, including what he knew about WikiLeaks email dumps and when he knew it. And people closer to Trump, like his son Don Jr. and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, can not be sure they're in the clear, though everyone, including the president, professes innocence and the investigation Downplay Muellers.

Rising Pressure on the White House may have prompted Trump's lawyer Rudy Giuliani to step up efforts to discredit the special adviser while on vacation.

"My ultimatum is being stopped or silenced, Bob," Giuliani said about "Fox and Friends" Sunday.

"What do you have? There are those of us who think they have nothing to do with collusion," he continued. "By the way, it's not a crime, so what the hell are you doing?"

Despite this defiance, Muller could have the most catastrophic impact on the political year if he concludes that Trump has something to answer for in a case report that could endanger the entire presidency.

Stir in the West Wing

The first half of Trump's tenure has generated in the West Wing an unprecedented uproar, turnover and chaos. There is no reason to assume that this is changing now.

The President enters the New Year, freed from "adults in space" than ever before, and giving free rein to his impulses. What this means became clear at the end of last year: with the sudden announcement by Twitter that the troops from Syria are being completely withdrawn, saying, "They're coming back now."

The President's willingness to follow his belly was also reflected in his rebuffing the government's stoppage.

However, in recent days, his improvisational leadership style has provoked strategic confusion about his intentions on both issues.

Following a meeting with the president on Sunday Sunday, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham seemed to signal that Trump had a heart alteration, at least in terms of the pace of the withdrawal from Syria.
On Monday, Trump suggested comments from his outgoing chief of staff, John Kelly, who suggested in an interview with the Los Angeles Times that the concept of a concrete wall had been abandoned long ago.
Before Christmas, however, the president had tweeted that the wall actually consisted of "artistically designed steel lamellae" that border passed through.

The confusion is another sign that the president's often changing positions and goals, which he considers the key to unbalance his enemies, will be another year of Washington political whip.


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