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The production activity closes more than expected



In early December, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to a 90-day ceasefire that delayed the planned $ 200 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods in January while negotiating a trade agreement ,

On Saturday, Trump said on Twitter that he has a "long and very good reputation" with Xi and that a potential trade agreement between the two countries would go well.

But after the tariff fight, China's economy was already very good against its own domestic headwind. Even before the escalation of US trade tensions this year, Beijing has been trying to cope with a slowdown in its economy after three decades of rapid growth.

China's worse-than-expected PMI reading on the last day of 201

8 suggests a Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian Economics Research at HSBC. "19659002" "China is a good measure of the temperature in terms of what's going on in the global industrial cycle," said Neumann of CNBC's "Squawk Box."

The "PMI figures today show that the This will not only put pressure on Chinese GDP growth but also on world trade, "Neumann said.

Indeed, the Nomura economists warned that "the worst thing is yet to come," for China.

"Looking to the future, we see more headwind for growth from slowing domestic demand, the persistent The credit cycle, a cooling real estate sector and the ongoing tensions between China and the US ", write the economists. [19659002] In spite of the tariff Compared to the US, the Chinese production and export sector held up well last year, analysts counted the robustness However, exporters are pushing ahead with shipment dates – also known as frontloading – a phenomenon that is running low, as indicated by freight rates.

In the third quarter of 2018, China's economy grew 6.5 percent in October Last year – the weakest pace since the first quarter of 2009, when the country's trade war with the US put pressure on W China's official growth target this year is around 6.5 percent.

The results of another private-sector survey focusing on small and medium-sized enterprises will be released Wednesday: China PMI's official PMI index focuses on large companies and state-owned companies Caixin and IHS Markit's private survey focuses on small and medium enterprises.

-Reuters contributed to this report.


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