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The prognosis: It's so hard for Democrats to take over the Senate



Senate forecast: Republicans will hold 52 seats in the next Congress (and retain control of the Senate), while Democrats will only hold 48. Everything between Republicans holding 48 seats and 56 seats is in error.

Democrats hope to take back the Senate, stay pale. Perhaps there is no way to better understand this than to look at the following Senate races: North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and the Mississippi Special.

In the best case of the Democrats, they have to win every other race and then win one of those four. The problem is that in all four cases the forecast looks bad for the Democrats.

A close look at all of them shows that the races appear to be leaving the Democrats in the final days of the election campaign.

North Dakota: Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp has not conducted a poll since February. For this reason, she loses a loss of 7 points for our forecast. Trump won North Dakota with more than 35 points and Heitkamp did not help her with some late stumbling. Heitkamp has to hope that her great advantage in raising funds points to some strength in her candidacy, which was not captured by the survey data. That seems unlikely at this time and she seems destined to be a one-year-old senator.

Tennessee: Former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen is from another era. He easily won reelection in 2006, and the Democrats had hoped the goodwill of his administration would override the fact that Trump won the state with 26 points. That did it for a while. Bredesen did most of the polls in September. Since then he has lagged behind most of them. The forecast loses him by about 5.

However, this range does not do justice to the dissemination of the data. Bredesen actually led in a recent public poll of the race. Something that can not be said for any of the other states mentioned above. Even so, this survey is a runaway one compared to most, including a Marist College survey published Tuesday.
Texas: The Democratic Beto O & Rourke, the hero of the Liberals in Austin and his ilk, has never led the Republican Senator. Ted Cruz in a high-quality poll of the race. O & Rourke's election may even have deteriorated over the past month, which is why The Forecast has cut him by about 7 points. The only real reason to believe that O Rourke has much to offer is how much money he has contributed to the campaign. In the end, however, the state's natural bias (for example, no democrat has won nationwide since 1
994 and no democrat since 1988 has been elected senator) seems to be taking over the role.

Mississippi Special: We probably will not really know if the Democrats' prayers have come to an end here by the end of November. At that time, Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Mike Espy are likely to make a detour to this seat, previously held by Republican Thad Cochran.

The run-off election will be necessary because Cochran's resignation has launched a process in which a jungle primary (in which all candidates compete independently of each other's party affiliation) takes place on election day. The best two-vote getters (if no one reaches 50% in the first round) reach the bottom. Democratic odds are on another Republican (Chris McDaniel), who competed against Espy.

Polls suggest Hyde-Smith as the most likely person to face Espy in the runoff election. Even in a good political environment for the national Democrats, it is almost impossible to win a national federal contest in Mississippi, unless the Republicans are mortally defunct. Hyde-Smith not.

Of course, the idea that Democrats need only one of these states can be magical.

Competitions like Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri and Nevada are within 3 points.

If the Republicans win three of these five, they will end up with 53 seats at the next Congress. If the Republicans sweep them, they have 55 seats.

According to our forecast, the Republicans will win two of them and land with 52 seats.

Even if the Democrats won all five, the Republicans would still have 50 seats. Democrats are still in the minority with Vice-President Mike Pence, who gives a tie.


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