Analysts who spoke with CNBC agreed that Erdogan is unlikely to be much upset in this year's vote. He has been continuously serving as either Prime Minister or President since 2003.
That is, opposition parties are working together more effectively than in the past, analysts say. Thus, the People's Democratic Party refuses to use various races to help candidates from a broader bloc of opposition led by two others, the Republican People's Party and the Good Party.
The closest competitions, according to polls, will take place in Ankara and Istanbul, cities where the AKP has been holding Erdogans for 25 years.
"If the AKP loses an opposition party, it will be a symbolic sign that the ruling party has trouble keeping its appeal to the urban elite." said Emily Hawthorne, an analyst with Risk Consultancy Stratfor.
Agathe Demarais, chief economist of the Economist Intelligence Unit, said she believed that an AKP defeat in the political and commercial centers of Turkey was "unlikely at this point"] But she said that if the AKP loses Istanbul and Ankara, "The financial markets would react negatively and depreciate the lira against the US dollar and the euro, which could possibly trigger another currency crash."
Me In the meantime, Ash of Bluebay Asset Management sees a "high probability" of the AKP losing Ankara and the odds of 50-50. He only estimated a 30 percent chance that Erdogan's party would lose Istanbul.