Two closely watched GDP models released by regional Federal Reserve banks on Friday paint a completely different picture from the record highs on the stock market, let alone the recent comments by President Donald Trump.
Wall Street companies are generally cautiously optimistic about the fourth quarter. For example, Goldman Sachs reduced its GDP estimate for the fourth quarter on Friday to 1.9%.
Nevertheless, these Fed GDP models suggest that the US economy is unlikely to grow this quarter. When growth comes to a standstill, the economy becomes more vulnerable to a negative shock that could drive them into recession.
Trump says the economy is "BOOMING"
Compare all this to Trump's recent comment.
"Economy is booming," Trump tweeted on Tuesday. "Seems to have another record day!"
Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, had a different attitude.
"Look at today's economy, there's nothing that's really booming, what would burst," Powell told lawmakers on Thursday.