PHILADELPHIA – Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are two of the ideologically most aligned candidates of Democratic primary politics – both left-wing populists opposed to a "manipulated" Scold economic system.
But the enemies of the 1 percent have surprisingly different fundamentals of support.
Continuation of the following story
In polls, Sanders appeals to low-income and less-educated people; Warren beats Sanders among those with postgraduate degrees. Sanders performs better in men, Warren in women. Younger people who vote less frequently are more common in the Sanders camp. Senior citizens who are close to politics generally prefer Warren.
Sanders has also won more African American than Warren for himself: he receives, according to the recent Morning Consult, a greater share of support from black voters than any candidate in the race, except for Joe Biden polls.
For progressive activists gathering this week in Philadelphia at the annual Netroots Nation conference, it is both promising and worrying that the two leading left-wing primary-schoolers are attracting so many fans. It shows that a progressive economic message can excite different parts of the electorate, but it also means that Sanders and Warren are likely to need to expand their bases to win the Democratic nomination.
In other words, if their voters magically could be left behind one or the other, that would greatly increase the chances of a democratic candidate on the left wing of the ideological spectrum.
The fact that the bases of Warren and Sanders do not perfectly overlap has not attracted much publicity, but is of great importance to their aides and allies.
"It shows that the media have no basis for their perception of publicly available data," said Ari Rabin-Havt, chief of staff of the Sanders campaign. "I think people are developing oversimplified views on politics, which assume that people who live in the real world think the same way as elite media in DC and New York."
It is not a matter of course that Sanders voters flock to Warren or vice versa when one of them leaves the race and advocates the other. In surveys by Morning Consult, Reuters-Ipsos and Washington Post-ABC News, more Sanders advocates call Biden their second choice than Warren – and a higher percentage of Warren voters choose Kamala Harris as their # 2 Sanders.
Wes Bode, a retired contractor in the state of Iowa, explains the point: He thinks it's good that Sanders has "new ideas", such as: Free tuition, and one of them recently visited its town halls in the state. But he also likes Biden because he is "for the worker".
It may seem strange that a voter's top picks for 2020 are the two candidates that best represent the opposite poles of the Democratic Party. But a person like Bode is actually more common than a person like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose favorites are Sanders and Warren.
For Sanders there is a need to increase his base, a problem that dates back to his run in 2016. This year he was largely unable to win the nomination because he could not win over older voters, especially older color voters.
"Two places that Bernie has always struggled with are older voters and women to some extent," he said Mark Longabaugh, a Sanders top strategist in 2016. "Warren is a Democrat and steps Democrat on. So I think that much more establishment democrats in the party are attracted to her – while Bernie deliberately ran for independent and independent candidate identifies as independent and appeals to those who look to the Democratic Party and think that it is not their thing is. "
During the 2020 campaign, Sanders consultants acknowledged that he needed to appeal more to senior voters, and he was recently in the early states more intimate events tend to attract more high-profile viewers than his rallies. His team is also very concerned about expanding the primary electorate by selecting rare voters.
Meanwhile, Warren is aggressively working to gain support from African Americans. Her allies argue that her performances at events such as the Al Sharpton National Action Network Convention and She the People conference show she has room for growth among black voters.
"If you wanted to buy a rising stock, you'd be looking at future market shares and strong fundamentals indicators," said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, who supports her inspirational plans for her personal story of fighting she grew poor in Oklahoma and was a single mother in Texas. "
Several Democratic activists stated that Warren had the opportunity to extend their base to black women in particular.
" She impressed 2,000 top color activist women at [our conference]"said Aimee Allison Founder of She the People. "Elizabeth Warren has deepened racial justice, tightened it up, and "A fundamental component of their policy."
A look at their poll numbers shows how different the pools of support for Sanders Vs. Warren are.
Twenty-two percent of Democratic primary voters earning less than $ 50,000 a year support Sanders, while 12 percent are for Morning Consult surveys for Warren, according to an average of the past four weeks. 22 percent of respondents without a university degree are behind Sanders. 10 percent back, Warren.
Approximately the same percentage of voters with undergraduate degrees – 16 percent and 15 percent, respectively – supports Sanders and Warren. Postgraduates are 12 percent for Sanders and 19 percent for Warren.
There is a similar breakdown by age, gender and interest in politics. Sanders wins more than a third of 18 to 29 year olds, Warren 11 percent. Warren is supported by 13 percent of 30- to 44-year-olds, 12 percent of 45- to 54-year-olds and 13 percent of 55- to 64-year-olds and 65-year-olds and more. Sanders & # 39; support decreases as voters grow older: it is supported by 25 percent of 30- to 44-year-olds, 17 percent of 45- to 54-year-olds, and 12 percent of 55-64 year olds 8 percent of the 65 and older.
Twenty percent of men support Sanders and 11 percent support Warren; 18 percent of women are behind Sanders and 14 percent behind Warren.
Warren also scores best among voters who are "extremely interested in politics" (17 percent of them), while Sanders is the strongest among those who "are not present" (26 percent). [Oftheblackvoters19percentarebehindSanderswhile9percentsupportWarrenandsomearestillworriedthatWarrenandSandersmightdividetheleftandhandoverthenominationtotheformervicepresident
"There's a lot more to this campaign Time, "said Sean McElwee, co-founder of the liberal think tank Data for Progress," but it's clear that it's very important for the left that we do not split the field and allow someone like Joe Biden to make the nomination. "
Steven Shepard contributed to this report.