LONDON – Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been in office for less than a month, and even in Britain's gossip classes talk about his death.
Johnson has promised to get Britain out of the European Union in its first 100 days, with or without a Brexit agreement.
But can he stay in Downing Street # 10 over 119 days – the United States' tenure George Canning's most fleeting prime minister, who served from April to August 1827?
Maybe. Theresa May survived two years in office after her first round of political obituaries was written.
Three scenarios are discussed here, as Johnson could proceed.
Johnson may lose a vote of no confidence and resign.
The Labor Party opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said he would call for a vote of no confidence against Johnson to end an abrupt "no-deal-Brexit" – which Johnson claims Britain has to prepare for, and economists call it turbulence Both sides could lead the English channel.
Corbyn could call for a vote as early as the 3rd of September, when Members of Parliament return from their summer break. He said that he would introduce the application at a "reasonably early time" and "at a time when we can win it."
How realistic is a Johnson loss? Well, he has a working majority of just one seat in parliament, and some legislators of his conservative party have suggested that they would consider the nuclear option of voting against their own government, if that is what is needed to avoid a Brexit without agreement. But there are also independent legislators and Labor Party politicians who could support the Prime Minister in a vote of no confidence.
To sum up the hypothesis: If Johnson lost, lawmakers would have 14 days to form an alternative government that could command a majority in the lower house. Labor's John McDonnell suggested that Corbyn get into "a taxi to Buckingham Palace" and say, "We'll do it." He might not have meant that literally, but Corbyn would certainly try to win the support of the majority of lawmakers. 19659013] It is unclear whether Corbyn – or anyone else – could muster a majority. Otherwise, Johnson would come under extreme pressure to resign.
Johnson may lose a choice.
The next parliamentary elections in the UK are scheduled for 2022, but there are some ways they could end much sooner.  If Johnson loses a vote of confidence and no other viable government emerges in this two-week window, the parliament is dissolved and an election takes place 25 working days later.
Alternatively, Johnson could call for an election at his own request, either to strengthen his mandate, enforce Brexit (if Parliament somehow managed to block it), or to take advantage of a possible upswing after the Brexit Brexit has taken place. In any case, he would no doubt want to improve this one-person majority.
Johnson has ruled out an election before the Brexit deadline of October 31st. Some of his allies have reportedly announced that he may set a date for early November. Michael Gove, who is responsible for planning the no-deal Brexit, raised his eyebrows with his suggestion that November 1 should be a bank holiday to limit the market panic after the no-deal. Could this be a date on which to seek a choice? It would have the advantage that it would take place before voters feel the destabilizing effects of a crash without concluding a deal to deal with the withdrawal.
Corbyn cried loudly and agreed to the convention that governments make no major political decisions in general elections campaign. But Johnson is not the most conventional politician.
How could Johnson and his Conservatives fare in an election? Let's recall that Johnson has not yet met the British electorate – he was selected by a small contingent of contributing members of the Conservative Party, who leaned older, whiter and masculine.
Conservatives were insulted in the spring elections to the European Parliament and in local races. However, Recent YouGov polls indicate that support for the party has been running out since Johnson became prime minister. Asked for hypothetical voting intentions, 31 percent said Conservatives, 22 percent Labor, 21 percent Liberal Democrats, and 14 percent Brexit Party.
If Johnson could sell the idea that Parliament would thwart his efforts at Brexit, people would vote. He could find even more support on his path and win back the defectors of Nigel Farage's Brexit Party. But if he pursued a consensual Brexit and broke out of chaos, he could see that his support was evaporating. In this case, pro-E.U. Voters – scattered across multiple parties – could come together to oppose him.
Johnson may lose a vote of no confidence, refuse to resign and be dismissed by the Queen. I do not want to touch the hornets nest that is Brexit with a 10 foot pole. The British monarch is known to be neutral on all political issues. Even if she refers to Britain's relations with the European Union, she does so in an undeniable, royal fashion.
However, there is speculation that the 93-year-old monarch may be drawn in.
Johnson Repeatedly Rejected Tell him what he would do if he lost a vote of no confidence. If Corbyn or anyone else formed a viable alternative government and Johnson still refused to budge, some might claim that the Queen could dismiss Johnson.
The Queen "is not a decorative extra," Conservative Dominic Grieve, a former Attorney General, told the Times of London. "It is true that she has tried to stay away from politics, but at the end of the day there are remaining powers and responsibilities that lie with her, and she may have to forfeit her own services."
David Howarth, Professor for Law and Public Order at the University of Cambridge, told LBC Radio that Queen Johnson could theoretically dismiss, but Johnson would do so more likely to be set aside to not embarrass her.
Tony Travers , a government professor at the London School of Economics, is also a skeptic. "I find it hard to believe that the Queen as an individual wants to make a decision that will change the country's government," he said.
When did The last time a monarch meddled in the election of a prime minister was in 1834, when King William IV dismissed William Lamb A year later, Lamb was reappointed prime minister, and he became one of Queen Victoria's closest advisors.
Queen Elizabeth II is unlikely to lose sleep in this scenario. She is officially on vacation at Balmoral Castle in Scotland. But royal observers say she's up to date on the news that featured the Daily Telegraph headline this past weekend: "Buckingham Palace and Downing Street plan to save the queen from Brexit in the face of the impending constitutional crisis."