It is expected that a tropical disruption that winds its way across the Caribbean this weekend is heading northwest towards Florida, possibly gaining some strength this week.
This disorder is also referred to as a tropical wave in the weather community and is possibly the fourth tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season 2019.
] At this time, there is a 20% chance that the feature this week developed into a tropical depression.
As of Monday, the disturbance showed a faint circular motion with its cloud mass. Should this organizational trend continue, depression could occur with maximum sustained winds of less than 50 km / h.
This image of the eastern Caribbean shows the cloud mass near Puerto Rico on Monday. July 29, 2019. (NOAA / Satellite)
"Waters are warm enough for tropical tropical development in the Caribbean," says AccuWeather meteorologist Brett Rathbun.
"However, the disruption has some wind shear and its forecast path leads south of Puerto Rico and near Hispaniola in the middle of the week," Rathbun said.
Hispaniola is one of the largest islands in the Caribbean. The Dominican Republic, which shares the island with Haiti, has mountains of up to 10,200 feet.
Image of the terrain in the Dominican Republic. (Pixabay)
Air resistance combined with wind shear applied by the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola may be sufficient to prevent the organization of the feature.
The same rough terrain can squeeze plenty of moisture in the form of rain showers and gusty thunderstorms.
While disturbances like these can positively affect the islands along the way, too much rain falls too fast and leads to flash floods and mudslides.
Other concerns concern the risk for small vehicles in the region. Sudden gusts created by the budding feature can quickly lift the lake and wind.
Beach-goers should keep an eye on fast-changing weather conditions when not in the shelter of the beach.
What can happen beyond the Caribbean?
If the feature film survives the encounter with Hispaniola, the conditions may be such that it can be organized and strengthened as it moves northwest through the Bahamas and into the Florida Peninsula in the second half of the week.
Wind shear is expected to be slightly lower north of Hispaniola, southeast of Florida.
"Wind shear is expected to increase near and to the northeast of Florida towards the end of this week and into this weekend when the system is held together or organized." Rathbun said.
Not only can this weaken the system, but it can also move northeast and seaward across the western Atlantic Ocean.
How Close the Florida System Comes and h From Friday to Sunday, the organization is uncertain.
The scenarios range from the curve east of the peninsula to the persecution directly across the peninsula, to the hike a little further west and briefly into the Gulf of Mexico.
19659003] The system will intervene in a front that will stall and weaken in the southeastern states and along the mid-Atlantic coast with a barrage of soaked showers and thunderstorms Later this week, it will depend on the track and strength of the system and if it holds together at all.
A tropical depression or storm east of Florida may generate some dry, hot air for some time. The same strength of a system that crosses the peninsula in a westerly direction can lead to drenched rains and locally strong thunderstorms.
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Interested parties from Florida and the Bahamas to the northern Caribbean should monitor the progression of this disorder being investigated by the weather community.
The water is sufficiently warm on the projected path of the object. Thus, it is possible that development of the wind shear and friction pockets of land areas during a thunderstorm flare near the center may occur at any time.
Large areas with wind shear and dry air were common. This is often the case.
However, as August progresses, these inhibitory factors tend to decrease and water temperatures peak above the pelvis.
Tropical waves Tropical storms emanating from the west coast of Africa are becoming the main cause of tropical storms in the heart of the hurricane season, peaking in September.
A tropical wave usually emerges from Africa every two to four days in the heart of the season.
If the disruption reaches tropical storm status, the next name on the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2019 list will be Chantal.
Download the free AccuWeather app to keep track of the latest developments in tropical activity. Keep up to date with AccuWeather.com and stay up-to-date with the AccuWeather network from DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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