The likelihood of a tropical system developing in the Gulf of Mexico is increasing at the end of this week. Known as "Nestor" on tropical storms, this system may cause heavy rains on parts of the Gulf Coast this weekend, as well as problems with inland floods and gusty winds heading north to southeast and perhaps mid-Atlantic early next Week.
A storm may develop from a nests disturbance over the Bay of Campeche, which soon begins its northeastern route across the unusually warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.  Two tropical systems, one just off the west coast of Mexico and one in the east. (CIRA / RAMMB / NOAA)
The photo above shows two tropical systems. In the east you will notice swirling clouds over the western bay of Campeche. that's the one to watch. The western-pacific interference over the Pacific has led to warnings of tropical storms from Barra de Tonala to Puerto Escondido, Mexico, but it could wander inland before it has time to make a name for itself.
The National Hurricane Center is giving the system over the Campeche Bay a chance to develop into a depression or a storm. However, this could improve soon as the models are more optimistic and gain some momentum.
This system could become a tropical depression as it solidifies above the water on Thursday. Then it will probably continue on a track that will take it towards the United States.
The European model predicts that the system will haunt Mississippi and Alabama. The JRC is a bit further east with its predictions suggesting that Florida's Big Bend is more likely to be in the target zone – near the hurricane that hit Michael a year ago, a tropical storm by tapping favorable conditions over the Gulf from Mexico, especially on Friday. The delicious gulf water and the mild wind at high altitude could help the storm development.
However, it is unlikely that the system will have much time to use these hospitable conditions. It moves so fast that it passes by the coast Friday night or Saturday.
This event is not likely to be a major windmaker, but rather a tropical storm. Quantities of 4 to 6 inches are possible in some areas along the Interstate 10 corridor.
Despite the danger of flooded areas, this can be good news in some drought-affected areas. Parts of the Sunshine State are absolutely dried up. Panama City has seen only 33.4 inches of rain this year; By this time last year, it had exceeded 60. Tallahassee is in a similar situation, about 19 inches behind where it should be.
Nevertheless, too much rain can be dangerous in a short time.
Thereafter, the residual moisture from the system may intensify heavy downpours when a cold front approaches the east coast near the beginning until the middle of next week.