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Home / US / Trump achieves high career approval, but faces a number of re-election risks: Survey

Trump achieves high career approval, but faces a number of re-election risks: Survey



Sponsored by a strong economy, Donald Trump achieved the highest job approval in his career in the latest ABC News / Washington Post poll and is running for reelection against four out of five possible Democratic candidates. Nonetheless, he remains largely unpopular with regard to personal and professional action, highlighting his shortcomings in the 2020 elections.

Forty-four percent of Americans support Trump's overall workload. This is a marginal 5 percentage points more than in April and 2 points higher than its peak at the beginning of its presidency. However, 53% reject this, so that it was repeatedly rejected during the first two and a half years of his term of office. This is a record for every president in the modern election.

See PDF for complete results, charts, and tables.

Fifty-one percent are in favor of Trump's dealings with the economy, more than half of them for the first time in his presidency. Its approval ratings in eight other areas are all significantly lower, ranging from 42% in tax treatment to 29% in global warming.

In addition, 65% personally state that Trump has "not acted presidentially" since taking office, not far from the 70% who said so in mid-2017 and early 2018 alike. Only 28% of those surveyed by ABC for Langer Research Associates said their behavior was "appropriate and appropriate" for a president.

Congressional support for Trump's impeachment has remained unchanged at 37% since April, while opposition to this move has risen 13 points to 59% since August, a new high. Sixty-one percent of Democrats support impeachment, but only 37% of independents – and 7% of Republicans – agree.

Trial Runs

Even though it does, Trump's historically low approval rating makes him vulnerable to the 2020 election – but hardly a pushover. All adults (there's plenty of time to register to vote) lead Joe Biden 14 points ahead of Trump. For the other four Democrats tested in this poll against Trump, this is a caveat: Kamala Harris had a lead of 8 points, Elizabeth Warren a 7 point lead, Bernie Sanders a 6 point lead and Pete Buttigieg a head start 4 points. The latter two do not achieve statistical significance.

Among registered voters, Biden still leads by 10 points, but the other races all lead to virtual or actual dead runs – trumps a nonsignificant -2 point against Harris, -1 against Sanders and just like Warren and Buttigieg.

  PHOTO: Democratic presidential candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden, addresses guests on June 28, 2019 in Chicago.
Scott Olson / Getty Images, FILE
PHOTO: Democratic presidential candidate, former Vice President President Joe Biden addresses guests on June 28, 2019 in Chicago.

Another question Trump faces is "a Democratic candidate you consider a socialist" – relevant in view of the Republicans' declared goal of applying this label to their potential adversary. In the general public, the race is to be equated between Trump and a person perceived as socialist. For registered voters it is +6 on Trump, 49% on 43%, no significant difference.

The results show some notable differences between the groups. Moderate favor Biden 29 points over Trump, compared to 18-15 for Warren, Sanders or Buttigieg vs. Trump (and 21 points for Harris). Biden leads among most groups, apart from traditionally GOP-oriented ones, including whites without a college degree, conservatives, older adults and country Americans. For Blacks, Biden's 83-12 lead is as good as Harris's 77-16%. And Biden has a 17-point lead over the white-college-educated white women, which is better than Harris & # 39; 9 points and Warren's 7 points in the same Democratic key group. In fact, none of these is a statistically significant lead.

The differences between all adults and registered voters characterize a long-standing GOP advantage; Your support groups are more inclined to vote. Only 64% of 18 to 29-year-olds, a largely democratic group, are registered, compared to 92% of those over 50 years old. And only 71% of non-whites are registered, including 61% of Hispanics (a group of more younger adults and non-citizens) compared to 89% of whites.

These are, of course, early days when there is enough time for the development of preferences. It is also worth noting that, as the 2016 competition has shown, the pre-selection and the profit of the national vote are not necessarily the same as winning the electoral college.

Intensity Gap

Other questions show the extent of the political divisions on Trump's re-election campaign, with an advantage for democratic supporters in terms of mood intensity, especially in terms of the importance they attach to victory.

Among the current Trump supporters (who support him against all democrats tested), 52% consider it extremely important that he wins a second term. At the same time, 73% of the current Democrat supporters (who support all Democrats tested against Trump) consider it extremely important that Trump does not win – a large gap of 21 points for the opposition. The question is whether this results in turnout.

48% of adults say they have no chance of considering Trump against a Democratic candidate. That is 46% of the currently registered voters.

Problems

Economy, health care and immigration are high on the public list of key issues in the 2020 elections. Eight out of every ten Americans lead them. Foreign affairs, armed forces, issues of particular concern to women and taxation are the next level, each of which is considered to be a top priority by about seven out of ten. This is followed by abortion (of high importance for 61%) and global warming (54%).

There are party-political divisions in these views, some of which are quite conspicuous. Democrats, with 14 points more than Republicans, state health care – the crucial criterion for success for Democratic candidates in 2018 – as the theme with the most votes in 2020. This is the same gap for abortions. The gap in gun violence and women's problems is growing. Democrats call 24 points rather than republicans one of the most important topics. And it's a massive 55 points for global warming.

Republicans say 24 points more often that taxes are a major issue in their polls. They are also generally less up-to-date with these topics, with an average peak of 68% (73% without global warming) versus 79% among Democrats.

Single Payer

Views on "Medicare for all" in health care further highlight the party-political gap in policy preferences. Fifty-two percent of Americans support a state taxpayer-funded insurance program such as Medicare for all. That includes 77% of Democrats, who drop to 48% of independents and then continue to drop to 22% of Republicans.

Support for a payer system was 56% in 2006 and decreased in 2003 from 62% in an ABC / Post survey. Compared to 2003, there was essentially no change among Democrats (at that time 73%, now 77%)), but strong declines by 17 points for the Independents and 23 points for the Republicans.

If such a system abolishes private health insurance, support drops to a total of 43% – 64% among Democrats, 40% among independents and 14% among Republicans. This makes it a potential wedge problem for the GOP.

At the same time, the underlying concerns are far-reaching. Seventy-one percent of Americans are very or somewhat concerned about being able to afford the cost of their health care (including 45% very worried). Democrats and independents agree with 79% and 73%, respectively. For the Republicans, it's only 58%, but still the majority. As the government voices concerns about the possible decline of private insurance, Democrats could push back arguments about the high cost of care in the current system.

Referendum

At the end of the day, a Second term of office is a referendum of the incumbent. Achieving a career high is a good result for Trump – although he is still far away. His rating was extremely stable (36% to 44%) and low since taking office. In the first two and a half years, he achieved an average of 39%. This is the lowest value a president has recorded in the data collection to the Truman administration over the same period – 21 points below the average for Trump (60%).

Partisan differences in Trump's views are enormous; 87% of Republicans agree, while only 10% of Democrats agree. But there are some issues in which he has done less well in his own party, advocating less than 70% of respondents in terms of gun violence, issues of particular concern to women, abortion, and global warming in particular. [19659033] PHOTO: President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference on June 29, 2019. “/>
Susan Walsh / AP

President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference on June 29, 2019.

Regarding Election It is helpful in focusing on independents as they are most likely to act as swing voters. Trump has an overall rating of 43% for the admission of jobs among independents. 54% disagree, with 46% rejecting rather than 30% advocating.
Among the eight individual problems tested in this survey, Trump's approval among independents is 39% lower on average.

Independents are generally in the middle and almost exactly halfway between Democrats and Republicans in the three key issues that matter to voters in the election, economy, immigration and health care. This marks these topics further than the area where the upcoming campaign is likely to be most intensely fought.

Methodology

This ABC News / Washington Post survey was conducted by landline and mobile from June 28 to July 1, 2019. in English and Spanish, under a random national sample of 1,008 adults. The results have an error rate of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 29-23-37%, Democrat-Republican-Independent.

The survey was created for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York (New York) using samples and data collection from Abt Associates of Rockville, Maryland. For details on the methodology of the survey, click here.


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